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On March 17, Morgan Stanley published a report, indicating that according to the full-year performance of 2024, the earnings forecast of Haifeng International (01308.HK) was adjusted, and the earnings per share forecast for 2025 was raised by 2%, the earnings per share forecast for 2026 was raised by 6%, and the earnings per share forecast for 2027 was introduced to 19 US cents. The bank believes that further earnings revisions in the downward cycle of container shipping from 2025 to 2026 will put pressure on Haifeng Internationals valuation. Therefore, the bull market-benchmark-bear market target price-earnings ratios were adjusted from 14 times, 11 times and 7 times to 12 times, 9.5 times and 6.0 times, respectively. The baseline scenario valuation multiples are basically in line with the historical average since 2011, taking into account the potential special dividends from 2025 to 2026, while the bull market scenario valuation falls within a standard deviation range. Based on this, the bank lowered the weighted target price of Haifeng International from the previous HK$21.3 to HK$18.8, and the rating was "in line with the market".On March 17, US President Trump said he had no intention of exempting steel and aluminum tariffs, and said reciprocal tariffs and industry tariffs would be implemented on April 2. Trump told reporters on Air Force One that reciprocal tariffs on US trading partners would be implemented together with automobile tariffs.March 17th, Deutsche Bank Research is optimistic about European stocks, both from a relative and absolute perspective. The banks strategists have noted the progress of Germanys multi-billion dollar infrastructure and climate funds and increased defense spending, and expect the positive momentum in European stocks to continue. The German MDAX index, which has outperformed the U.S. stock market in the past few weeks, remains its favorite index. Strategists believe that U.S. import taxes are the main source of uncertainty in the coming weeks, and the increasing likelihood of a slowdown in the U.S. economy due to tariff increases is the main risk to the absolute upside of European stocks. While they believe that the Ukrainian ceasefire is the most unpredictable catalyst, they add that if a credible ceasefire is achieved, it will reduce the expected risks of European stocks and attract U.S. investors.On March 17, the median estimate of six economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal showed that Malaysias export growth may accelerate in February. Exports are expected to rise 6.9% year-on-year from 0.3% in January, while imports may increase 9.6%, with a trade surplus of 9.25 billion ringgit. Kenanga IB economist Muhammad Saifuddin Sapuan said the export growth may be due to a low base last year, increased demand from major trading partners, and early shipments before the deadline for reciprocal tariffs by US President Trump.QCT Technology (01478.HK): Net profit reached 279 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 234.1%.

Gold Prices Fall to Start a Volatile Pre-Fed Week

Haiden Holmes

Jul 26, 2022 11:13

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Gold's behavior in the last 72 hours before the Federal Reserve's rate decision for July is as expected: unpredictable.


New York's Comex gold futures for August delivery closed $8.30, or 0.5%, down at $1,719.10 per ounce, after a low of $1,712.95 and a high of $1,733.30.


Since last week's first positive finish in six weeks, capital flows into bullion have grown, despite an earlier plunge to 16-month lows below $1,688.


However, not everyone believed that gold was impervious to another slide below $1,700.


Craig Erlam, an analyst at the online trading platform OANDA, said that gold dealers were seeking to determine whether a recovery had begun, adding that 10-year U.S. interest rates were encouragingly below the vital 3 percent level.


"We may have to wait until Wednesday to see which of the two it will be, with the Fed's policies and their potential recessionary effects influencing the outcome," Erlam added.


Since it hit record highs above $2,100 in August 2020, gold has failed to live up to its reputation as a hedge against inflation for the most of the previous two years. The dollar's ascension, which is up 11 percent this year and 6 percent in 2021, has contributed.


Gold for delivery in August on the Comex climbed by 1.4% last week, but only after a five-week fall that cost bulls $172, or 9% of their value.


The Dollar Index, which measures the dollar to six major currencies, fell for the third day in a row on Monday, hovering around 106.5 after hitting a 20-year high of 109.14 on July 14.


As the Federal Reserve prepares to conduct its fourth rate hike of the year, this week volatility may be the name of the game for gold and other commodities. The Federal Open Market Committee's rate decision will be followed by Jerome Powell's press conference, during which traders will attempt to interpret economic signals.


In July, there will be another 75-basis point hike, just as there was in June, according to over 80 percent of analysts. If so, rates would reach a range of 2.25 to 2.50 percent by the end of this month, up from a range of 0 to 0.25 percent before February's increases.


The Fed's officials anticipate that rates will reach a peak of 3.5% or maybe 4% by the end of the year, with three more rate decisions to be made this year.


However, traders in the money market are also pricing in rate cuts by 2023 if the adverse economic implications of Fed rate hikes prove to be too severe. This followed a week in which wagers hit 70 percent, culminating in a record 100 basis point rise in July.


The fact that the market is even contemplating a fall in interest rates by next year suggests to experts that the likelihood of a Fed-induced recession happening between now and then is rather high.


In the first quarter, the U.S. economy contracted by 1.6%, and a negative second quarter is all that is necessary to formally declare a recession. On Thursday, a day following the Fed's rate decision, the first GDP data for the second quarter will be revealed.