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On March 16, the Sasebo Regional General Headquarters of the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force announced that a minesweeper sailing in the waters near Karatsu City, Saga Prefecture, caught fire in the evening of the 15th and was subsequently extinguished. The fire did not cause any injuries to the crew members on board, and no oil leaks were found. The minesweeper returned to Sasebo Port in Nagasaki Prefecture on the morning of the 16th local time under its own power.According to NHK, Japan will invest 100 million euros in a French rare earth project.On March 16, JPMorgan Chase made a pessimistic forecast about Teslas prospects: the brands quarterly deliveries may hit the worst record in three years. Specifically, JPMorgan Chase lowered Teslas delivery expectations by 20%, from the initial estimate of 444,000 vehicles to 355,000 vehicles. Moreover, the original forecast value was slightly higher than the industrys general consensus of 430,000 vehicles. In addition, the agency believes that Teslas stock price still has room to fall sharply, possibly to $120 per share, almost half of the current stock price. At present, Teslas market downturn is just over halfway through the first quarter, and the final impact may not be clear until the second quarter financial report is released. JPMorgan Chase pointed out that Teslas current predicament is "unprecedented" in the automotive industry. "In the history of the automotive industry, it is difficult for us to find similar cases-the market value of a brand can shrink so much in such a short period of time."On March 16, the Yemeni Houthi armed forces said on the 16th that the US militarys air strikes on many places in Yemen on the 15th have killed at least 20 people. The Yemeni Houthi armed forces also stated that they will not remain indifferent to the US military attacks. The Houthi armed forces are fully prepared to "escalate against escalation." The Yemeni Houthi armed forces said on the 16th that the US militarys air strikes on many places in Yemen on the 15th have killed at least 20 people. The Yemeni Houthi armed forces also stated that they will not remain indifferent to the US military attacks. The Houthi armed forces are fully prepared to "escalate against escalation."According to the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology, a magnitude 5.1 earthquake occurred in the sea near Surigao del Norte Province, Philippines at around 9:10 am on March 16, with a focal depth of 10 kilometers. The earthquake is not expected to cause any damage, but there will be aftershocks.

Gold Prices Fall to Start a Volatile Pre-Fed Week

Haiden Holmes

Jul 26, 2022 11:13

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Gold's behavior in the last 72 hours before the Federal Reserve's rate decision for July is as expected: unpredictable.


New York's Comex gold futures for August delivery closed $8.30, or 0.5%, down at $1,719.10 per ounce, after a low of $1,712.95 and a high of $1,733.30.


Since last week's first positive finish in six weeks, capital flows into bullion have grown, despite an earlier plunge to 16-month lows below $1,688.


However, not everyone believed that gold was impervious to another slide below $1,700.


Craig Erlam, an analyst at the online trading platform OANDA, said that gold dealers were seeking to determine whether a recovery had begun, adding that 10-year U.S. interest rates were encouragingly below the vital 3 percent level.


"We may have to wait until Wednesday to see which of the two it will be, with the Fed's policies and their potential recessionary effects influencing the outcome," Erlam added.


Since it hit record highs above $2,100 in August 2020, gold has failed to live up to its reputation as a hedge against inflation for the most of the previous two years. The dollar's ascension, which is up 11 percent this year and 6 percent in 2021, has contributed.


Gold for delivery in August on the Comex climbed by 1.4% last week, but only after a five-week fall that cost bulls $172, or 9% of their value.


The Dollar Index, which measures the dollar to six major currencies, fell for the third day in a row on Monday, hovering around 106.5 after hitting a 20-year high of 109.14 on July 14.


As the Federal Reserve prepares to conduct its fourth rate hike of the year, this week volatility may be the name of the game for gold and other commodities. The Federal Open Market Committee's rate decision will be followed by Jerome Powell's press conference, during which traders will attempt to interpret economic signals.


In July, there will be another 75-basis point hike, just as there was in June, according to over 80 percent of analysts. If so, rates would reach a range of 2.25 to 2.50 percent by the end of this month, up from a range of 0 to 0.25 percent before February's increases.


The Fed's officials anticipate that rates will reach a peak of 3.5% or maybe 4% by the end of the year, with three more rate decisions to be made this year.


However, traders in the money market are also pricing in rate cuts by 2023 if the adverse economic implications of Fed rate hikes prove to be too severe. This followed a week in which wagers hit 70 percent, culminating in a record 100 basis point rise in July.


The fact that the market is even contemplating a fall in interest rates by next year suggests to experts that the likelihood of a Fed-induced recession happening between now and then is rather high.


In the first quarter, the U.S. economy contracted by 1.6%, and a negative second quarter is all that is necessary to formally declare a recession. On Thursday, a day following the Fed's rate decision, the first GDP data for the second quarter will be revealed.

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