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On January 14th, the Bank of Japan announced it will hold a market operations meeting on February 26th. The meeting will discuss recent market dynamics, central bank operations, liquidity in the Japanese government bond market, and money market conditions. Given the current weakening yen, this meeting announcement has attracted market attention. Analysts at the US financial website InvestingLive pointed out that this meeting is a technical one, not a formal meeting to determine the direction of monetary policy. The market operations meeting will review the Bank of Japans bond-buying framework, including the size, frequency, and maturity structure of Japanese government bond purchases, as well as money market operations such as repurchase agreements and collateral terms. Although such meetings do not directly adjust interest rates or policy guidance, adjustments to the details of actual operations can convey important market signals. For example, adjusting the purchase volume of bonds with specific maturities could affect the yield curve and change market expectations regarding the central banks tolerance for rising long-term interest rates. Historical experience shows that fine-tuning at the operational level often precedes adjustments to overall policy. Given the current pressure of rapid yen depreciation, analysts suggest that if the Japanese authorities decide to intervene in the market, they may not wait for this meeting six weeks later. The technical discussions at this meeting will provide a window into the central bank’s strategies for dealing with market volatility, but should not be over-interpreted as a precursor to a policy shift.On January 14th, the State Council Taiwan Affairs Office held a regular press conference. The Straits Exchange Foundation (SEF) previously stated that cross-strait relations in 2026 are highly uncertain, but it will still make every effort to promote dialogue between the two sides, and even between the two organizations (the Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Straits (ARATS) and the SEF), but only on the premise of no pre-existing political conditions and on the basis of consensus among the people of Taiwan. What is the spokespersons comment? Spokesperson Zhu Fenglian stated that if cross-strait relations are uncertain, the fundamental reason is that the DPP authorities stubbornly adhere to their "Taiwan independence" separatist stance and constantly collude with external forces to conduct provocative actions for "independence." The solution is certain: peace, development, exchange, and cooperation are the mainstream public opinion on the island and the common aspiration of compatriots on both sides of the strait. As long as the "1992 Consensus," which embodies the one-China principle, is acknowledged, the two organizations can restart dialogue and communication mechanisms, and cross-strait relations can return to the correct track of peaceful development.On January 14th, the State Council Taiwan Affairs Office held a regular press conference. According to foreign media reports, the United States and Taiwan are close to reaching a trade agreement, with TSMC to invest in and build at least five more semiconductor plants in the US. People and media on the island have questioned the DPP authorities use of investment in exchange for tariffs, suggesting it will lead to the relocation of elite semiconductor production capacity to the US, turning TSMC into "US TSMC." What is your comment on this? Spokesperson Zhu Fenglian stated that the so-called agreement is an economic plunder of Taiwan by the US using high tariffs as a means, a scheme to bleed Taiwans industries dry. This not only exposes the USs self-serving "America First" nature but also reveals its sinister intention to use Taiwan as a pawn. Faced with blatant bullying and plunder by external forces, the DPP authorities not only fail to resist but also actively cater to them, using the islands core technological advantages as a pledge of allegiance to external forces. They "kneel before the negotiations even begin" in tariff negotiations, and "cheek on one cheek and offer another" in the face of economic blackmail. The more they negotiate, the more they sell out, ultimately destroying Taiwans economic development prospects and harming the long-term interests of the Taiwanese people.On January 14th, the State Council Taiwan Affairs Office held a regular press conference. Taiwanese media reported that the "KMT-CPC Forum" would be held in Beijing, and that high-ranking KMT officials would travel to the mainland. Could this be confirmed? The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) questioned whether the KMT had secured its place at the "KMT-CPC Forum" by repeatedly blocking arms purchases and called on the KMT not to cooperate with mainland "united front" propaganda. What is your comment on this? Spokesperson Zhu Fenglian stated that our position is clear: we are willing to work with all political parties, groups, and people from all walks of life in Taiwan, including the KMT, to strengthen exchanges and maintain positive interactions on the common political basis of adhering to the "1992 Consensus" and opposing "Taiwan independence," to jointly promote the peaceful development of cross-strait relations and benefit compatriots on both sides of the strait. If there is any information in this regard, we will release it in a timely manner.Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara: The Bank of Japan is expected to work closely with the government to achieve its 2% inflation target in a stable manner.

Gold Price Prediction: XAU/USD forges bullish path above $1,960, Fed and banking unrest anticipated

Daniel Rogers

Mar 21, 2023 13:57

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Following a retracement from a Year-To-Date (YTD) high, the gold price (XAU / USD) regains upward momentum amid cautious optimism in the banking sector. The market's inaction during the Japanese holiday as well as the failings of US Treasury bond yields to prolong the recent corrective bounce off a six-month low could lend support to the recovery movements.

 

Headlines indicating that U.S. policymakers are searching for ways to insure all bank deposits and that major central banks are rushing to keep markets liquid with the US Dollar flow appear to favor Gold purchasers.

 

Notably, the most recent reading of the CME's FedWatch tool indicates that the likelihood of a 0.25% Fed rate rise on Wednesday is now close to 75%, up from 65% last week. This allows US Treasury bond yields to rebound. However, Treasury bond yields remain inactive due to Japan's national holidays, which restrict bond trading in Asia. The previous day saw the 10-year and 2-year US Treasury bond yields rebound from their lowest levels since September 2022.

 

Gold traders will be keenly interested in the Fed's response to the banking crisis, as the 0.25 percentage point rate hike is a foregone conclusion. Should the dot-plot hint at a policy reversal, the US Dollar could experience further losses, which could propel the XAU/USD exchange rate.