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On January 19th, according to foreign media reports, international crude oil futures fell as the possibility of a US attack on Iran leading to supply disruptions decreased, while the market closely watched the US tariff threats over Greenland. As of 21:58 Beijing time, the March Brent crude oil futures contract fell $0.37, or 0.58%, to $63.76 per barrel. The US crude oil futures contract fell $0.28, or 0.47%, to $59.16 per barrel. Rystad analyst Janiv Shah said, "With the rumors of a US attack fading over the past few days, the market is now focused on the situation in Greenland and the extent of the potential serious consequences between the US and Europe, as any escalation of the trade war could impact demand." PVM Oil Associates analyst John Evans said the market also faces the risk of damage to Russian infrastructure and distillate supplies, as forecasts of colder weather in North America and Europe, coupled with concerns about Iran, are making the market uneasy.January 19th - Sources familiar with the matter revealed that Googles sales of Gemini AI models have surged over the past year. Gemini API calls have more than doubled, reaching 85 billion; Gemini Enterprise has grown to 8 million subscribers. Sources indicated that this is expected to boost revenue from Google Cloud server sales, a core business, as customer spending on AI often leads to additional spending on other Google products.The Syrian Democratic Forces, led by the Kurds, say that the Shadadi prison is currently outside their control.Indian Foreign Secretary: India and Afghanistan aim to double bilateral trade to $200 billion by 2032.According to Reuters calculations, Russias oil and gas revenues are expected to fall to 420 billion rubles in January due to weak oil prices and a stronger ruble.

Gold Price Prediction: XAU/USD forges bullish path above $1,960, Fed and banking unrest anticipated

Daniel Rogers

Mar 21, 2023 13:57

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Following a retracement from a Year-To-Date (YTD) high, the gold price (XAU / USD) regains upward momentum amid cautious optimism in the banking sector. The market's inaction during the Japanese holiday as well as the failings of US Treasury bond yields to prolong the recent corrective bounce off a six-month low could lend support to the recovery movements.

 

Headlines indicating that U.S. policymakers are searching for ways to insure all bank deposits and that major central banks are rushing to keep markets liquid with the US Dollar flow appear to favor Gold purchasers.

 

Notably, the most recent reading of the CME's FedWatch tool indicates that the likelihood of a 0.25% Fed rate rise on Wednesday is now close to 75%, up from 65% last week. This allows US Treasury bond yields to rebound. However, Treasury bond yields remain inactive due to Japan's national holidays, which restrict bond trading in Asia. The previous day saw the 10-year and 2-year US Treasury bond yields rebound from their lowest levels since September 2022.

 

Gold traders will be keenly interested in the Fed's response to the banking crisis, as the 0.25 percentage point rate hike is a foregone conclusion. Should the dot-plot hint at a policy reversal, the US Dollar could experience further losses, which could propel the XAU/USD exchange rate.


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