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ECB Governing Council member Machrouf: Uncertainty means the ECB will make decisions on a meeting-by-meeting basis.On February 11th, BeiChen Lin, Senior Investment Strategist at Russell Investments, stated in a report that while a complete victory is not yet achieved, the Federal Reserves fight against inflation appears to be within reach. He pointed out that a more balanced labor market is helping to suppress inflation in the services sector; moreover, the inflationary pressures from tariffs are expected to gradually subside in the second half of the year. Furthermore, the continued sluggishness of the US housing market will also help control inflationary pressures. Lin believes that even if the US economy maintains trend-based growth this year, or even slightly exceeds trend levels, inflation is expected to remain benign and manageable this year and next.1. Standard Chartered Bank: -10,000; Scotiabank: +000; Capital Economics: +30,000; Oxford Economics: +30,000; 2. Bank of America: +40,000; Moodys Analytics: +40,000; Goldman Sachs: +45,000; TD Securities: +45,000; 3. ABN AMRO: +50,000; Barclays: +50,000; Morgan Stanley: +55,000; Danske Bank: +60,000; 4. DekaBank: +60,000; RBC: +63,000; HSBC: +65,000; ANZ: +70,000; 5. Westpac: +70,000; JPMorgan Chase: +75,000; Deutsche Bank: +75,000; Commerzbank: +80,000; 6. ING: +80,000; Societe Generale: +80,000; UniCredit: +80,000; Wells Fargo: +80,000; 7. Nomura: +85,000; Lloyds Banking Group: +85,000; Mizuho Securities: +90,000; UBS: +90,000; 8. Pansen Macro: +100,000; BNP Paribas: +105,000; Jefferies Group: +110,000; Citigroup: +135,000. On February 11, Saudi Arabias ambassador to Iran, Abdullah Anzi, stated on February 10 that strengthening bilateral relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran would send a clear and unambiguous signal to destructive forces in the region. He emphasized that regional issues cannot be resolved through war, and military confrontation will only exacerbate tensions. Saudi Arabia supports de-escalating regional tensions through political and diplomatic means.February 11th Futures News: 1. WTI crude oil futures trading volume was 896,471 lots, a decrease of 32,686 lots from the previous trading day. Open interest was 2,071,193 lots, a decrease of 9,447 lots from the previous trading day. 2. Brent crude oil futures trading volume was 155,978 lots, a decrease of 6,962 lots from the previous trading day. Open interest was 261,767 lots, a decrease of 1,475 lots from the previous trading day. 3. Natural gas futures trading volume was 602,356 lots, a decrease of 35,580 lots from the previous trading day. Open interest was 1,623,418 lots, a decrease of 14,347 lots from the previous trading day.

Gold Price Prediction: XAU/USD forges bullish path above $1,960, Fed and banking unrest anticipated

Daniel Rogers

Mar 21, 2023 13:57

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Following a retracement from a Year-To-Date (YTD) high, the gold price (XAU / USD) regains upward momentum amid cautious optimism in the banking sector. The market's inaction during the Japanese holiday as well as the failings of US Treasury bond yields to prolong the recent corrective bounce off a six-month low could lend support to the recovery movements.

 

Headlines indicating that U.S. policymakers are searching for ways to insure all bank deposits and that major central banks are rushing to keep markets liquid with the US Dollar flow appear to favor Gold purchasers.

 

Notably, the most recent reading of the CME's FedWatch tool indicates that the likelihood of a 0.25% Fed rate rise on Wednesday is now close to 75%, up from 65% last week. This allows US Treasury bond yields to rebound. However, Treasury bond yields remain inactive due to Japan's national holidays, which restrict bond trading in Asia. The previous day saw the 10-year and 2-year US Treasury bond yields rebound from their lowest levels since September 2022.

 

Gold traders will be keenly interested in the Fed's response to the banking crisis, as the 0.25 percentage point rate hike is a foregone conclusion. Should the dot-plot hint at a policy reversal, the US Dollar could experience further losses, which could propel the XAU/USD exchange rate.


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