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On January 27, according to Qichacha APP, Ant Groups Ant Yikang (Guangzhou) Information Technology Co., Ltd. recently registered the copyrights for "Daily Version of Afu", "Ant Afu Three-View View" and "Sports and Health Version of Afu", all of which are in the category of fine art.1. Precious Metals Market: Spot silver surged 6.00% to $109.797 per ounce, while the Shanghai silver futures main contract jumped 6.65%. Indian gold and silver futures both hit record highs. 2. Exchange Regulation: Violations: The Shanghai Futures Exchange discovered 16 clients in 3 groups suspected of failing to declare their actual control relationships in tin and silver futures trading, imposing a one-month restriction on opening new positions and restricting withdrawals. Trading Limits: The Shanghai Futures Exchange announced that starting from the night session of January 26, the maximum daily opening positions for silver and tin futures contracts will be adjusted to 800 lots and 200 lots respectively. Industry Interpretation: Analysts from CITIC Securities Futures and Guoxin Futures believe that the Shanghai Futures Exchanges rare midday announcement reflects a "zero-tolerance" stance and a determination to dynamically "apply the brakes" to cool down the market. 3. Inventory and Open Interest Data: COMEX silver inventory decreased significantly by 16.957 million ounces month-on-month, while SHFE silver inventory decreased by 43.9 tons month-on-month. SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased slightly, while SLV Silver ETF holdings increased by 16.9 tons. COMEX silver non-commercial long positions decreased by 4,372 contracts, while short positions increased by 2,474 contracts, indicating an increase in short-selling pressure. 4. Fund subscriptions suspended: Guotou Silver LOF will suspend subscriptions starting January 28th. 5. Summary of institutional views: Investinglive analyst: Spot silver trading prices are still about half of the 1980 inflation-adjusted peak, but also warns of potential short-term selling pressure or margin changes, and does not recommend chasing the price higher. Julius Baer analyst: Silver has become the "Trump of the trading world," with prices entirely driven by buying interest rather than fundamentals; upward momentum may continue to $125 or even $150. Jinyuan Futures: This round of market activity driven by chasing the price higher is extremely fragile; the risk of a silver price correction from its high levels is increasing; pay attention to the potential for platinum and palladium to catch up. Dongwu Futures: Geopolitical crises (Greenland/US/Europe/Middle East) and the trend of de-dollarization (crisis on the Fed/central bank gold purchases) are the core drivers, with silver, possessing industrial attributes, experiencing even greater gains. 22V Research: This is not a cyclical fluctuation in silver, but rather related to the AI industry, exhibiting parabolic fluctuations within a commodity bull market. (The above content is compiled from publicly available market data and is for reference only, not investment advice.)January 27th - According to sources, a proposed $550 billion investment plan by Japan includes a core project to build a synthetic diamond factory in the United States. This move is part of the two countries efforts to expand production of materials crucial for chip and high-precision manufacturing. Two sources indicated this could be among the first projects announced. These projects are planned to be announced as early as March, before Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichis visit to the US. One source stated, "The US wants to accelerate domestic synthetic diamond production. By bringing in Japanese companies, Washington hopes to establish a US-Japan supply chain." This person added that the synthetic diamond project involves Element VI, a subsidiary of De Beers Group, a leading global diamond company. Japans Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry declined to comment on the projects under discussion, stating that it is negotiating with the US to expedite the project list but has not yet made any decisions.Sources say Japan and the United States plan to invest in synthetic diamond production.On January 27, Yonhap News Agency reported that South Korean President Lee Jae-myung stated that resource allocation needs to be rationally adjusted to change the current situation of excessive asset concentration in real estate. He said that excessive housing market expansion will inevitably create a bubble, which could severely damage the overall economy and undermine mutual trust among members of society. Lee Jae-myung also mentioned the governments recent decision not to extend the temporary suspension of the capital gains tax on owners of multiple properties, criticizing the repeated extensions of the suspension period after the legislation and the opposition to not extending the suspension period.

Gold Price Prediction: XAU/USD forges bullish path above $1,960, Fed and banking unrest anticipated

Daniel Rogers

Mar 21, 2023 13:57

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Following a retracement from a Year-To-Date (YTD) high, the gold price (XAU / USD) regains upward momentum amid cautious optimism in the banking sector. The market's inaction during the Japanese holiday as well as the failings of US Treasury bond yields to prolong the recent corrective bounce off a six-month low could lend support to the recovery movements.

 

Headlines indicating that U.S. policymakers are searching for ways to insure all bank deposits and that major central banks are rushing to keep markets liquid with the US Dollar flow appear to favor Gold purchasers.

 

Notably, the most recent reading of the CME's FedWatch tool indicates that the likelihood of a 0.25% Fed rate rise on Wednesday is now close to 75%, up from 65% last week. This allows US Treasury bond yields to rebound. However, Treasury bond yields remain inactive due to Japan's national holidays, which restrict bond trading in Asia. The previous day saw the 10-year and 2-year US Treasury bond yields rebound from their lowest levels since September 2022.

 

Gold traders will be keenly interested in the Fed's response to the banking crisis, as the 0.25 percentage point rate hike is a foregone conclusion. Should the dot-plot hint at a policy reversal, the US Dollar could experience further losses, which could propel the XAU/USD exchange rate.