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On January 22, Tenda Technology issued a price adjustment notice stating that, based on current raw material and market conditions, the company decided to raise prices for all products on January 22, with the online Tenda Yougou system implementing the increase simultaneously. This is understood to be the companys third price adjustment this month, and the second time that all its products have seen a price increase.On January 22nd, futures market news reported that oil prices fluctuated narrowly, while fuel oil saw positive news, and market participants maintained a wait-and-see attitude, providing some support. Downstream restocking was moderate, and buying interest picked up. It is expected that fuel oil trading prices will remain stable with a slight increase today.On January 22, the Venezuelan National Assembly was scheduled to discuss an oil reform plan on Thursday. If implemented, the plan would break the states monopoly on the oil industry, allowing private companies to exploit and sell the countrys abundant crude oil reserves. Previously, Venezuelan Acting President Rodriguez announced on January 15 his intention to reform the landmark hydrocarbon law, but did not provide details. The proposed amendments to the law would relax the role of the state-owned oil company, PDVSA, giving private companies greater freedom in oil extraction and sales, while reducing their tax burden. According to four sources familiar with the matter, the reform plan would also allow companies to resolve legal disputes through international arbitration rather than local courts. Oil royalties would be reduced from 33% to 20%, and income tax from 50% to 30%.Futures News, January 22nd: I. Domestic Weather (1) Low temperatures still exist in Jiangnan and other areas, with temperatures gradually rising on the 23rd. On January 22nd, low temperatures still exist in Hunan, Guizhou, Jiangxi and other areas, with temperatures gradually rising from the 23rd. (2) Heavy to blizzard conditions in southwestern Tibet. From the night of January 22nd to the 24th, moderate to heavy snow is expected in parts of western Xinjiang and southwestern Tibet, with blizzards or heavy blizzards in some areas. During this period, light to moderate snow will occur on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau from west to east, and temperatures will drop by 6-8℃ after the snowfall, with some areas experiencing drops of more than 10℃. II. Global Weather (1) Strong rain, snow, strong winds and temperature drops are expected in Central Asia and West Asia. Over the next three days, affected by the low-pressure system, some areas in southern Central Asia, central and eastern Afghanistan, the Pamir Plateau, eastern Far East, and central and northern Japan will experience heavy to blizzard-like snow or sleet, with some areas experiencing heavy to extremely heavy snow. Most of these areas will see a temperature drop of 8 to 12°C, with some areas experiencing a drop of 14 to 16°C, accompanied by strong winds of level 4 to 6 and above. (2) Heavy rainfall in central and southeastern Brazil. Over the next three days, affected by the low-pressure system, some areas in Brazil, Ecuador, western Colombia, Peru, and northern Bolivia will experience moderate to heavy rain, with some areas experiencing torrential rain. (3) Heavy precipitation in southern Africa and strong winds and temperature drops in the northwest. Over the next three days, affected by the low-pressure system, some areas in southern Africa, including Madagascar and Botswana, will experience moderate to heavy rain, with some areas experiencing torrential rain, accompanied by short-term heavy rainfall, thunderstorms, strong winds, and other severe convective weather. Temperatures in Libya and other areas will drop by 6 to 10 degrees Celsius or more, accompanied by strong winds of level 4 to 6 or higher.Japans Ministry of Finance: Japans exports to the United States fell 11.1% year-on-year in December, while exports to Asia rose 10.2% year-on-year.

Gold Price Prediction: XAU/USD forges bullish path above $1,960, Fed and banking unrest anticipated

Daniel Rogers

Mar 21, 2023 13:57

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Following a retracement from a Year-To-Date (YTD) high, the gold price (XAU / USD) regains upward momentum amid cautious optimism in the banking sector. The market's inaction during the Japanese holiday as well as the failings of US Treasury bond yields to prolong the recent corrective bounce off a six-month low could lend support to the recovery movements.

 

Headlines indicating that U.S. policymakers are searching for ways to insure all bank deposits and that major central banks are rushing to keep markets liquid with the US Dollar flow appear to favor Gold purchasers.

 

Notably, the most recent reading of the CME's FedWatch tool indicates that the likelihood of a 0.25% Fed rate rise on Wednesday is now close to 75%, up from 65% last week. This allows US Treasury bond yields to rebound. However, Treasury bond yields remain inactive due to Japan's national holidays, which restrict bond trading in Asia. The previous day saw the 10-year and 2-year US Treasury bond yields rebound from their lowest levels since September 2022.

 

Gold traders will be keenly interested in the Fed's response to the banking crisis, as the 0.25 percentage point rate hike is a foregone conclusion. Should the dot-plot hint at a policy reversal, the US Dollar could experience further losses, which could propel the XAU/USD exchange rate.