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Futures Commentary by Everbright Futures: 1. Overnight, January 23rd, London spot gold surged, surpassing the $4900/ounce mark to reach a new high. COMEX silver futures rose 4.05%, and SHFE gold rose 1.53%. Geopolitical events have resurfaced, with the US declaring "full access" to Greenland and emphasizing "we will have all the military access rights we need," while threatening large-scale retaliation against Europe if it sells off US Treasury bonds and other assets. From military threats to tariff withdrawals and asset restrictions, geopolitical uncertainty has intensified, and gold may experience short-term volatility with a slight upward bias. 2. Overnight, strong US economic data suggests the Fed will likely maintain interest rates unchanged at next weeks meeting. The final reading of US Q3 real GDP was slightly revised upward to 4.4%, the fastest growth in two years, with core PCE inflation remaining at 2.9%. The US November PCE price index rose 2.8% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month, both in line with expectations, indicating stable inflation expectations and robust consumer spending. Geopolitically, with Greenland becoming a short-term market focus, attention has shifted to the selling of US Treasury bonds and assets by some European sovereign wealth funds, indicating a weakening of long-term European capitals confidence in dollar assets. Although US economic data has shown resilience, the dollar remains weak due to geopolitical tensions, and this erosion of the dollars credibility is a strong driver for gold. From the US-Venezuela conflict to the Greenland situation, and with the Iranian situation still unresolved, the safe-haven demand for gold is unlikely to subside in the short term.Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Brehman: Signing the statement supporting the Federal Reserve Chairman is not intended to represent the New Zealand governments foreign policy.On January 23, the Dalian Municipal Bureau of Statistics of Liaoning Province announced that Dalians GDP reached 1,000.21 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 5.7% at constant prices. Dalian became the first city in Northeast China to surpass one trillion yuan in GDP.On January 23, it was reported that the Hunan Provincial Housing and Urban-Rural Development Work Conference was held in Changsha on January 22. Chen Jing, Director of the Hunan Provincial Department of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, introduced that to systematically promote urban renewal, the "Three-Year Action Plan for Urban Renewal" will be issued, the "15th Five-Year Plan" for urban renewal will be completed, and relevant national support policies will be implemented. Policies related to land, planning, approval, property rights, and finance will be optimized, and the establishment of an urban renewal fund will be explored. This year, the focus will be on "purchasing as the primary means" to raise funds for affordable housing, making good use of special bonds, affordable housing re-loans, and other funding channels to promote the acquisition of existing housing for use as affordable housing, resettlement housing, dormitories, and talent housing, striving to complete the acquisition of more than 2 million square meters throughout the year. This year, the modularization of prefabricated building design, standardization of components, large-scale production, product scenario-based design, and industrial ecology will be further promoted, aiming to push the annual output value to exceed 500 billion yuan, with the proportion of newly started prefabricated building area in urban areas reaching 65%.January 23 – US President Trumps use of tariffs as a foreign policy tool accelerated the pace at which countries are pushing for trade with nations outside the US in Davos this week. Canadian Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne said that countries are diversifying their trade relations and strengthening intra-regional trade to make their economies more resilient to the impact of trade policies. Related research predicts that the USs role in overall global trade will be less significant than before. The Boston Consulting Group (BCG) predicts that by 2034, the US share of global merchandise trade could fall from 12% to 9%, with more economic activity shifting domestically. Dirk Jandura, head of the German Foreign Trade Association (BGA), stated, "Trump is sawing the branch hes sitting on."

Gold Price Prediction: XAU/USD forges bullish path above $1,960, Fed and banking unrest anticipated

Daniel Rogers

Mar 21, 2023 13:57

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Following a retracement from a Year-To-Date (YTD) high, the gold price (XAU / USD) regains upward momentum amid cautious optimism in the banking sector. The market's inaction during the Japanese holiday as well as the failings of US Treasury bond yields to prolong the recent corrective bounce off a six-month low could lend support to the recovery movements.

 

Headlines indicating that U.S. policymakers are searching for ways to insure all bank deposits and that major central banks are rushing to keep markets liquid with the US Dollar flow appear to favor Gold purchasers.

 

Notably, the most recent reading of the CME's FedWatch tool indicates that the likelihood of a 0.25% Fed rate rise on Wednesday is now close to 75%, up from 65% last week. This allows US Treasury bond yields to rebound. However, Treasury bond yields remain inactive due to Japan's national holidays, which restrict bond trading in Asia. The previous day saw the 10-year and 2-year US Treasury bond yields rebound from their lowest levels since September 2022.

 

Gold traders will be keenly interested in the Fed's response to the banking crisis, as the 0.25 percentage point rate hike is a foregone conclusion. Should the dot-plot hint at a policy reversal, the US Dollar could experience further losses, which could propel the XAU/USD exchange rate.