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Japans final industrial production annual rate for December was 2.6%, compared to 2.60% in the previous month.Japans final industrial production figure for December was -0.1% month-on-month, compared with a previous reading of -0.10%.New York gold futures fell below $5,000 per ounce, down 0.95% on the day.On February 16th, Han Wenxiu, Deputy Director of the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission and Director of the Central Rural Work Leading Group, published an article in Qiushi entitled "Adhering to the Principle of Seeking Progress While Maintaining Stability, Improving Quality and Efficiency, and Striving for a Good Start to the 15th Five-Year Plan." The article emphasized the need to properly address risks in key areas and firmly safeguard the bottom line of safety. It called for efforts from both the supply and demand sides of the real estate market, implementing city-specific policies to control new supply, reduce inventory, and optimize supply, striving to stabilize the real estate market and orderly promote the construction of safe, comfortable, green, and smart "good houses," using the construction of a new real estate development model as a driving force to promote high-quality development of the real estate sector. The article also stressed the need to actively and orderly resolve local government debt risks, urging local governments to proactively resolve debt, strictly preventing false debt resolution, and prohibiting the illegal creation of new hidden debt. It called for optimizing debt restructuring and replacement methods, and using multiple measures to resolve the operational debt risks of local government financing platforms. Finally, it emphasized the need to steadily promote the resolution, reduction, and quality improvement of risks in local small and medium-sized financial institutions, enriching risk disposal resources and means, strengthening early intervention and disposal, and firmly safeguarding the bottom line of preventing systemic risks.On February 16th, Han Wenxiu, Deputy Director of the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission and Director of the Central Rural Work Leading Group, published an article in Qiushi entitled "Adhering to Steady Progress and Improving Quality and Efficiency to Achieve a Good Start to the 15th Five-Year Plan." The article stated that it is necessary to unswervingly deepen reform and expand opening-up to stimulate the driving force and vitality of high-quality development. It is essential to continue to advance the construction of a unified national market, thoroughly rectify "involutionary" competition, and form a market order of high quality and fair pricing, and healthy competition. Continued efforts should be made in areas such as state-owned enterprise reform, improving the local tax system, market-oriented reform of factors of production, and comprehensive reform of capital market investment and financing to increase momentum and vitality through reform. It is also crucial to adhere to opening-up to the outside world and promote win-win cooperation in multiple fields. Steady progress should be made in institutional opening-up, and the independent opening-up of the service sector should be expanded in an orderly manner. Focus should be placed on improving the quality and efficiency of foreign trade, promoting the integration of trade and investment, and the integration of domestic and foreign trade, and promoting balanced development of imports and exports. The business environment should be continuously optimized, and the reform of the system and mechanism for promoting foreign investment should be deepened. The high-quality joint construction of the "Belt and Road" initiative should be promoted to go deeper and more practically, and the overseas comprehensive service system should be improved.

Gold Price Prediction: XAU/USD forges bullish path above $1,960, Fed and banking unrest anticipated

Daniel Rogers

Mar 21, 2023 13:57

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Following a retracement from a Year-To-Date (YTD) high, the gold price (XAU / USD) regains upward momentum amid cautious optimism in the banking sector. The market's inaction during the Japanese holiday as well as the failings of US Treasury bond yields to prolong the recent corrective bounce off a six-month low could lend support to the recovery movements.

 

Headlines indicating that U.S. policymakers are searching for ways to insure all bank deposits and that major central banks are rushing to keep markets liquid with the US Dollar flow appear to favor Gold purchasers.

 

Notably, the most recent reading of the CME's FedWatch tool indicates that the likelihood of a 0.25% Fed rate rise on Wednesday is now close to 75%, up from 65% last week. This allows US Treasury bond yields to rebound. However, Treasury bond yields remain inactive due to Japan's national holidays, which restrict bond trading in Asia. The previous day saw the 10-year and 2-year US Treasury bond yields rebound from their lowest levels since September 2022.

 

Gold traders will be keenly interested in the Fed's response to the banking crisis, as the 0.25 percentage point rate hike is a foregone conclusion. Should the dot-plot hint at a policy reversal, the US Dollar could experience further losses, which could propel the XAU/USD exchange rate.