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New York gold futures surged 4.00% intraday, currently trading at $5286.10 per ounce.On January 28th, China Railway Industry Corporation (CRIC) announced that its newly signed contracts for 2025 amounted to RMB 44.396 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 7.79%. Among these, the business of special engineering machinery and related services increased by 6.70% year-on-year, while the business of transportation equipment and related services decreased by 11.90% year-on-year. The total value of major contracts signed/won in the fourth quarter was RMB 2.532 billion, accounting for approximately 8.73% of the companys operating revenue in 2024.Eurozone money markets currently estimate a 25% probability of the European Central Bank cutting interest rates by July, compared to 15% on Tuesday.1. Bank of America: The Federal Reserve will cut interest rates twice in 2026, in June and July respectively. 2. Goldman Sachs: Expects the Federal Reserve to implement two rate cuts this year, with the first cut in June. 3. Morgan Stanley: Expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points each in June and September. 4. Barclays: Expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points each in June and December this year. 5. EY Bordrin: Expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by a total of 50 basis points this year, but not until the second half of the year. 6. JPMorgan Chase: No longer expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in 2026; the next action is expected to be a 25 basis point rate hike in the third quarter of 2027. 7. KBC: The next rate cut may not come until March, by 25 basis points. A further 25 basis point cut may be made in the second quarter to reach the neutral interest rate level. 8. Oxford Economics: The Federal Reserve will maintain its policy unchanged until June. A decline in inflation will allow the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates sooner if the labor market weakens further. 9. ING: The baseline forecast is for the Fed to cut rates in March and June, but the apparent risk now is that this pace could be delayed by three months overall. The Feds "dual mandate" will face more pressing pressure to achieve a rate cut in March. 10. ANZ: A pause in rate cuts in January was appropriate, but a prolonged pause is unnecessary. They forecast the FOMC to cut rates by 25 basis points each in March and June. 11. Wells Fargo: Given the two months of economic data to be released before the March meeting, rate cuts could come earlier, in March and June. The risk to their forecast leans towards a delay in the timing of rate cuts.The China Earthquake Networks Center automatically determined that an earthquake of approximately magnitude 3.3 occurred at 15:27 on January 28 near Sunan County, Zhangye City, Gansu Province (38.93 degrees north latitude, 98.22 degrees east longitude). The final result is subject to the official rapid report.

Gold Price Prediction: XAU/USD forges bullish path above $1,960, Fed and banking unrest anticipated

Daniel Rogers

Mar 21, 2023 13:57

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Following a retracement from a Year-To-Date (YTD) high, the gold price (XAU / USD) regains upward momentum amid cautious optimism in the banking sector. The market's inaction during the Japanese holiday as well as the failings of US Treasury bond yields to prolong the recent corrective bounce off a six-month low could lend support to the recovery movements.

 

Headlines indicating that U.S. policymakers are searching for ways to insure all bank deposits and that major central banks are rushing to keep markets liquid with the US Dollar flow appear to favor Gold purchasers.

 

Notably, the most recent reading of the CME's FedWatch tool indicates that the likelihood of a 0.25% Fed rate rise on Wednesday is now close to 75%, up from 65% last week. This allows US Treasury bond yields to rebound. However, Treasury bond yields remain inactive due to Japan's national holidays, which restrict bond trading in Asia. The previous day saw the 10-year and 2-year US Treasury bond yields rebound from their lowest levels since September 2022.

 

Gold traders will be keenly interested in the Fed's response to the banking crisis, as the 0.25 percentage point rate hike is a foregone conclusion. Should the dot-plot hint at a policy reversal, the US Dollar could experience further losses, which could propel the XAU/USD exchange rate.


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