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According to TASS, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that there is still a long way to go to reach a peace agreement (with Ukraine).On May 9, it was announced that, in order to strengthen the rule of law in the financial sector and improve the legal and regulatory system of the central bank, the Peoples Bank of China plans to formulate the "Business Processing Measures for the National Unified Centralized Account Management System" and is now soliciting public opinions.On May 9th, according to Spanish national television, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde stated that the ECB is carefully weighing its response to the war with Iran and its impact on inflation to ensure it doesnt act too soon or too late. In an interview, Lagarde said policymakers face "enormous uncertainty" and need "more data" to understand the impact of the conflict. She declined to comment on whether the ECB would raise interest rates next month as many expect. She said, "We have been torn between the risks of acting too quickly and acting too late, and we must find the right path to guide our economy toward our 2% medium-term inflation target – that is our goal."On May 9th, the Peoples Bank of China announced that, in order to strengthen the rule of law in the financial sector and improve the legal and regulatory system of the central bank, it has revised four normative documents, including the "Measures for Handling Bank Draft Business of Urban Commercial Banks Relying on the Large-Value Payment System" (issued as Yinbanfa [2004] No. 206), resulting in draft documents for public comment. The deadline for feedback is June 9th, 2026.On May 9th, the State Administration for Market Regulation issued the "Implementation Plan for the Special Action to Raise the Threshold for Certification Bodies," deciding to organize a nationwide special action to raise the threshold for certification bodies from now until December. According to the plan, the special action deploys 15 specific measures in four aspects: strictly controlling institutional access, standardizing certification activities, improving certification capabilities, and strengthening supervision. These measures include: strictly controlling access and licensing in accordance with the law through measures such as improving the certification body qualification licensing review system, strictly reviewing certification body qualifications, strengthening expert technical review support, and implementing on-site verification of qualification compliance; standardizing certification activities through measures such as improving certification management methods, improving nationally unified certification rules, strengthening the filing and review of certification rules, and reinforcing the main responsibilities of institutions and personnel; promoting certification capabilities through measures such as increasing efforts to cultivate brand certification bodies, strengthening special supervision of accreditation, and enhancing the innovation capabilities of certification bodies; and strengthening supervision to promote the healthy and orderly development of the certification service industry through measures such as strengthening risk monitoring and early warning of certification activities, strengthening "random inspections and public disclosure," improving the effectiveness of intelligent supervision, and improving the institutional exit mechanism.

Gold Price Prediction: XAU/USD bears anticipate a Fed rate hike near $1,660

Alina Haynes

Sep 21, 2022 14:35

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Wednesday's Asian session gold price (XAU/USD) reflects pre-Fed nervousness as bears flirt with $1,665 inside an immediate trading range. In addition to geopolitical concerns, the hawkish Fed bets create downward pressure on the metal. However, the market's consolidation prior to significant central bank announcements and the already-priced 0.75 basis point Fed rate hike appear to be testing the bears.

 

Reuters reported that the Federal Reserve began a two-day meeting on Tuesday, with rate futures traders pricing in an 83% chance of a 75 basis point raise and a 17% possibility of a 100 basis point tightening. The news adds to rising expectations that a positive surprise will weigh on the XAU/USD exchange rate. The previous day, global economist Nouriel Roubini endorsed metal bears and joined the band of supporters for the Fed's 1% rate hike.

 

In addition, the news of a sudden shutdown in the steel center of Tangshan due to China's zero covid policy recently rocked market confidence and boosted demand for the US dollar. In a similar vein might be the revelation that US Senators are seeking secondary sanctions on Russian oil.

 

In addition, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) lowered its growth predictions for emerging Asia in 2022 and 2023 on Wednesday, citing growing risks from increased central bank monetary tightening, the consequences from the conflict in Ukraine, and COVID-19 lockdowns in China. The news exerts a downward impact on mood and the XAU/USD exchange rate.

 

Regarding US statistics, the yields appeared to support DXY bulls on the back of generally positive US housing data. The nine-month decline in the US NAHB Housing Market Index preceded the August decrease in Building Permits to 1.517M from 1.61M expected and 1.68M previously. However, Housing Starts increased to 1.575 million compared to the market consensus of 1.445 million and previous readings of 1.404 million.

 

During the pre-Fed period of apprehension, the 2-year US Treasury yield reached its highest level in 15 years, while the 10-year yield reached its highest level in 11 years. Consequently, Wall Street's benchmarks closed in the negative, while the S&P 500 Futures remain undecided.

 

While the market's hesitation is mostly attributable to pre-Fed jitters, other central banks are also scheduled to influence the markets and gold prices. However, the focus will be on their ability to prevent recession while attempting to control inflation. If the Fed can persuade optimists of their capacity, a XAU/USD comeback cannot be counted out.


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