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On April 26, according to the Wall Street Journal, in order to simplify the negotiations on reciprocal tariffs, US negotiating officials plan to use a new framework developed by the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR), which lists major categories of negotiations, such as tariffs and quotas, non-tariff trade barriers, digital trade, product origin principles, economic security and other commercial issues. In these categories, US officials will put forward specific requirements for individual countries, but people familiar with the matter emphasized that this document may also be adjusted at any time. People familiar with the matter said that the United States initial plan is to negotiate with 18 major trading partners in turn over the next two months. The initial plan is to alternately participate in the talks with six countries per week for three weeks (six countries in the first week, another six countries in the second week, and another six countries in the third week) until the deadline of July 8. If US President Trump does not extend the 90-day suspension period he set by then, those countries that cannot reach an agreement will begin to face reciprocal tariffs.On April 26, after the United States announced additional tariffs on goods from many countries, Peruvian business people expressed concerns that the US governments extreme measures would disrupt the global trade order and may even trigger a global economic recession. Alvaro Barrenechea Chavez, vice president of the Peruvian-Chinese Chamber of Commerce, said that the negative impact of the US tariff policy has begun to emerge and hoped that the US government would rethink. Recognizing the importance of countries working together to promote development, I think this is the best way to become a true "world citizen."Market news: Musks xAI company plans to raise about US$20 billion in a financing round.Conflict situation: 1. Ukrainian top commander: Russia tried to use air strikes as a cover to increase ground attacks, but was repelled by Ukraine. 2. Ukrainian Air Force: Russia launched more than 103 drones in the night attack on Ukraine. 3. Local officials said Ukraine launched an attack in the Belgorod region of Russia, killing two people. 4. The local governor said that Russia launched an attack on the Dnipropetrovsk region of Ukraine, killing one person and injuring eight people. Peace talks: 1. Trump: ① The situation between Russia and Ukraine is gradually becoming clear, and they are "very close" to reaching an agreement. ② Ukraine is unlikely to join NATO. ③ Ukraine has not yet signed the rare earth agreement and hopes that the agreement can be signed immediately. ④ It is foreseeable that the United States will conduct commercial cooperation with Ukraine and Russia after reaching an agreement. 2. Russian Foreign Minister: Russia is "ready to reach an agreement on Ukraine." 3. Russian Presidential Assistant Ushakov: Russia and the United States will continue to maintain active dialogue. 4. Russian Presidential Assistant: Putin discussed the possibility of resuming direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine with the US envoy. 5. The differences between the United States, Europe and Ukraine are clear. The documents show that European countries and Ukraine have raised objections to some of the US proposals to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict. 6. Market news: As part of the peace agreement, the United States asked Russian President Putin to abandon the demilitarization requirement. Other situations: 1. President of Hungarys OTP Bank: We hope to return to all business areas in Russia after the (Russia-Ukraine) conflict ends. 2. Ukrainian President Zelensky: US ground forces are not necessary for Ukraine. 3. Trump said Crimea will remain in Russia, Zelensky: Never recognize it. Agreeing with Trumps view, Crimea cannot be recovered by force. 4. NATO Secretary-General Rutte met with Trump and senior US officials to discuss defense spending, NATO summit, and the Ukrainian conflict.Rising global trade risks, overall policy uncertainty and the sustainability of U.S. debt top the list of potential risks to the U.S. financial system, according to the Federal Reserves latest financial stability report released on Friday. This is the first time the Fed has conducted a semi-annual survey on financial risks since Trump returned to the White House. 73% of respondents said that global trade risks are their biggest concern, more than double the proportion reported in November. Half of the respondents believe that overall policy uncertainty is the most worrying issue, an increase from the same period last year. The survey also found that issues related to recent market turmoil have received more attention, with 27% of respondents worried about the functioning of the U.S. Treasury market, up from 17% last fall. Foreign withdrawals from U.S. assets and the value of the dollar have also risen on the list of concerns.

Gold Price Prediction: XAU/USD bears anticipate a Fed rate hike near $1,660

Alina Haynes

Sep 21, 2022 14:35

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Wednesday's Asian session gold price (XAU/USD) reflects pre-Fed nervousness as bears flirt with $1,665 inside an immediate trading range. In addition to geopolitical concerns, the hawkish Fed bets create downward pressure on the metal. However, the market's consolidation prior to significant central bank announcements and the already-priced 0.75 basis point Fed rate hike appear to be testing the bears.

 

Reuters reported that the Federal Reserve began a two-day meeting on Tuesday, with rate futures traders pricing in an 83% chance of a 75 basis point raise and a 17% possibility of a 100 basis point tightening. The news adds to rising expectations that a positive surprise will weigh on the XAU/USD exchange rate. The previous day, global economist Nouriel Roubini endorsed metal bears and joined the band of supporters for the Fed's 1% rate hike.

 

In addition, the news of a sudden shutdown in the steel center of Tangshan due to China's zero covid policy recently rocked market confidence and boosted demand for the US dollar. In a similar vein might be the revelation that US Senators are seeking secondary sanctions on Russian oil.

 

In addition, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) lowered its growth predictions for emerging Asia in 2022 and 2023 on Wednesday, citing growing risks from increased central bank monetary tightening, the consequences from the conflict in Ukraine, and COVID-19 lockdowns in China. The news exerts a downward impact on mood and the XAU/USD exchange rate.

 

Regarding US statistics, the yields appeared to support DXY bulls on the back of generally positive US housing data. The nine-month decline in the US NAHB Housing Market Index preceded the August decrease in Building Permits to 1.517M from 1.61M expected and 1.68M previously. However, Housing Starts increased to 1.575 million compared to the market consensus of 1.445 million and previous readings of 1.404 million.

 

During the pre-Fed period of apprehension, the 2-year US Treasury yield reached its highest level in 15 years, while the 10-year yield reached its highest level in 11 years. Consequently, Wall Street's benchmarks closed in the negative, while the S&P 500 Futures remain undecided.

 

While the market's hesitation is mostly attributable to pre-Fed jitters, other central banks are also scheduled to influence the markets and gold prices. However, the focus will be on their ability to prevent recession while attempting to control inflation. If the Fed can persuade optimists of their capacity, a XAU/USD comeback cannot be counted out.


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