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On March 21st, HSBC stated that the Federal Reserve maintained its policy rate at 3.50%-3.75% at its March meeting, hinting at a "wait-and-see" approach. Persistent inflation and rising geopolitical risks have created uncertainty for the Fed. We maintain our previous view that the Fed will keep rates unchanged in 2026 and 2027. Inflation risks have increased, particularly due to soaring energy prices, while labor market risks have slightly decreased. Energy price volatility and geopolitical risks should continue to support safe-haven demand and a stronger dollar.Iraq says Iranian natural gas supplies have resumed, with a daily supply of 5 million cubic meters.On March 21, Brazilian President Lula da Silva stated during a visit to an oil refinery in Minas Gerais state on March 20 that the escalating conflict in the Middle East necessitates that Petrobras and the government "establish strategic oil reserves" to cope with any potential consequences of the conflict. He warned that if the war continues, and if the United States were to destroy the Strait of Hormuz, the oil crisis "will only worsen." Previously, on March 12, the Brazilian government announced the exemption of import and sales taxes on diesel fuel, while imposing a 12% export tax on crude oil to mitigate the spillover risks from the Middle East situation.An Iranian military spokesman said the United States and Israel are targeting civilian and passenger ships in the Gulf region and warned of retaliatory action.Egypts Ministry of Petroleum: Egypt will pay $1.3 billion in outstanding payments to international oil companies by the end of June.

Gold Price Prediction: The XAU/USD pair remains stable near $1,750 as central bankers travel to Jackson Hole

Alina Haynes

Aug 24, 2022 15:11

 截屏2022-06-15 下午4.05.18_1024x576.png

 

Gold price (XAU/USD) ranges between $1,745 and $1,746 as traders prepare for Wednesday's European session.

 

In doing so, the shiny metal reflects the cautious disposition of the markets ahead of the US Durable Goods Orders report for July. The fact that global officials have recently left for Friday's important address at the Kansas City Fed's symposium in Jackson Hole further restrains the bullion's quick movement.

 

According to Reuters, "many of the central bankers travelling to the Grand Teton mountains this week are hopeful that the current inflationary pressures will abate swiftly enough to allow them to fight the projected economic downturns around the world."

 

Notably, the decline in US 10-year Treasury yields, near 3.03% and down 2.5 basis points (bps), also benefits the gold price. In contrast, economic concerns surrounding China, the world's largest consumer of commodities, impact on the XAU/USD exchange rate. Bloomberg reported that "authorities have been attempting to put a floor under a downturn caused by China's widening real estate crisis as well as a lingering impact to consumer and business mood caused by a stop-and-go Covid control plan."

 

Stock futures remain moderately offered as the US Dollar Index (DXY) oscillates near the intraday high after reversing from the yearly peak the day before.

 

US Durable Goods Orders for July, anticipated to be 0.6% versus 2.0% previously, will be crucial for intraday direction. However, Friday's statement by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at the Kansas City Fed's conference in Jackson Hole deserves significant consideration. If authorities see recession as a greater risk than inflation and demonstrate a willingness to reverse the previously hawkish tilt, the XAU/USD could see additional gains.


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