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Gold Price Prediction: Bears on the XAU/USD haven't given up yet; their aim is $1,825

Alina Haynes

Feb 17, 2023 14:26

 截屏2023-01-19 下午3.43.28.png

 

Gold price bears are stepping in and are targeting the $1,825 mark that has been screaming out since early February. At the time of writing, the price of gold is $1,826 as the US dollar appreciates in response to pent-up demand.

 

The US Dollar, as measured against a basket of currencies, has been breaking to the upside and out of the top side resistance of a geometric consolidation, albeit behind the past positive trends' support lines. DXY closed solidly above 103.65/80 on Thursday as a result of the Federal Reserve's hawkish rhetoric and data, and on Friday bulls are pushing in for the kill.

 

The Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.7% in January, a sharp reversal from December's 0.2% decline and well above the consensus estimate of 0.4%. The figure came in at 6%, which was higher than the 5.4% forecast but lower than the previous (upwardly corrected) 6.5% reading. The core PPI reported a monthly gain of 0.6%, three times the pace in December, and an annual increase of 4.5%, a decrease of 20 basis points from the prior month.

 

This came on the heels of a spectacular January Nonfarm Payrolls report, which was released on Friday, and on Thursday, the jobs market statistics once again showed that the labor market still had a great deal of momentum. For the sixth consecutive week, the Labor Department announced that initial unemployment claims fell below the level of 200,000 associated with a strong labor market.

 

In addition, Retail Sales increased by 3% in January, according to figures released the day before, shattering forecasts despite an inflation hike that may have otherwise kept customers' hands in their pockets and underscoring the resilience of the economy.

 

The annual Consumer Price Index inflation rate in the United States fell marginally in January to 6.4% from 6.5% in December, the lowest rate since October 2021 but above market predictions of 6.2%. The prior month's Services PMI data released last week was also extremely strong.

 

As a result, the entire yield curve increased on Thursday, and markets have begun to embrace a "higher for longer" mood as it is now anticipated that the Fed may continue to raise rates through the summer.

 

Analysts at Societe Generale stated that the current price anticipates two or three 25bp raises by September, "and it may take a bigger inflation scare than we saw in this week's CPI data or a very good labor market report at the beginning of March to push them higher."

 

"Absent that, we will likely be caught in a range again before the next move (which we believe will be a dollar decline when growth returns elsewhere)," analysts wrote.


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