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January 17th, Mark Carney, 59, announced on Thursday that he will run for the leadership of the Liberal Party, seeking to succeed the current Prime Minister Trudeau. Carney said he wants to focus on the troubled economy and portray himself as an outsider who does not belong to the Trudeau government. But the opposition Conservative Party said there is no difference between Carney and Trudeau. "As a long-time Liberal Party insider, Carney has served as an adviser to Trudeau at least as early as 2020 and is definitely not an outsider." Carneys main competitor appears to be former Finance Minister Freeland, who resigned last month due to policy differences. The new prime minister is unlikely to stay in office for long, and the minority government may be overthrown in Parliament as early as the end of March, triggering a general election. Polls show that the Conservatives will win the election. Carney served as governor of the Bank of Canada in 2007 and governor of the Bank of England in 2013, becoming the first person to head two major central banks at the same time.Western Digital Corp (WDC.O) forecast second-quarter revenue in the middle of the $4.2 billion to $4.4 billion range.As of the week ending January 9, foreign central banks held U.S. Treasuries worth $24.266 billion, compared with -$30.339 billion in the previous week.On January 17, since the beginning of the year, reporters have noticed that some banks, including foreign banks, are shifting their marketing focus to structured deposits. Depending on the performance of the linked target, the yields of different structured deposits are different, and the highest annualized yield of some products exceeds 5%. The reporter consulted several bank account managers and learned that structured deposits refer to deposits embedded with financial derivatives absorbed by banks, which link the product yield to specific financial indicators such as exchange rates, precious metal prices, and stock prices. Investors are expected to obtain products with higher yields on the basis of bearing certain risks. During the investigation, several financial managers told reporters that unlike general deposits, structured deposits have certain investment risks, and investors should invest with caution. In addition, the past performance of structured deposits does not represent future performance, nor is it equal to the actual yield of the product.January 17, New York Fed data released on Thursday showed that the Federal Reserve is not under immediate pressure to stop reducing its holdings of Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities (MBS). The report said that as of January 7, its recently launched reserve demand elasticity indicator remained basically stable compared with recent readings, at -0.04, and said that "estimates show that reserves are still ample." For the Federal Reserve, ample reserve levels mean that liquidity in the financial system is still strong enough, and the Federal Reserve can continue to reduce its balance sheet by not reinvesting the funds raised after some of its holdings of Treasury bonds and MBS expire. The reserve demand elasticity indicator helps measure liquidity conditions and can provide early warning of shortages, thereby providing ample preparation time. The Federal Reserve has also slowed down the pace of quantitative tightening and established a mechanism called the Standing Repo Facility to provide fast funds to eligible banks to quickly resolve any problems in the market.

Gold Price Prediction: Bears on the XAU/USD haven't given up yet; their aim is $1,825

Alina Haynes

Feb 17, 2023 14:26

 截屏2023-01-19 下午3.43.28.png

 

Gold price bears are stepping in and are targeting the $1,825 mark that has been screaming out since early February. At the time of writing, the price of gold is $1,826 as the US dollar appreciates in response to pent-up demand.

 

The US Dollar, as measured against a basket of currencies, has been breaking to the upside and out of the top side resistance of a geometric consolidation, albeit behind the past positive trends' support lines. DXY closed solidly above 103.65/80 on Thursday as a result of the Federal Reserve's hawkish rhetoric and data, and on Friday bulls are pushing in for the kill.

 

The Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.7% in January, a sharp reversal from December's 0.2% decline and well above the consensus estimate of 0.4%. The figure came in at 6%, which was higher than the 5.4% forecast but lower than the previous (upwardly corrected) 6.5% reading. The core PPI reported a monthly gain of 0.6%, three times the pace in December, and an annual increase of 4.5%, a decrease of 20 basis points from the prior month.

 

This came on the heels of a spectacular January Nonfarm Payrolls report, which was released on Friday, and on Thursday, the jobs market statistics once again showed that the labor market still had a great deal of momentum. For the sixth consecutive week, the Labor Department announced that initial unemployment claims fell below the level of 200,000 associated with a strong labor market.

 

In addition, Retail Sales increased by 3% in January, according to figures released the day before, shattering forecasts despite an inflation hike that may have otherwise kept customers' hands in their pockets and underscoring the resilience of the economy.

 

The annual Consumer Price Index inflation rate in the United States fell marginally in January to 6.4% from 6.5% in December, the lowest rate since October 2021 but above market predictions of 6.2%. The prior month's Services PMI data released last week was also extremely strong.

 

As a result, the entire yield curve increased on Thursday, and markets have begun to embrace a "higher for longer" mood as it is now anticipated that the Fed may continue to raise rates through the summer.

 

Analysts at Societe Generale stated that the current price anticipates two or three 25bp raises by September, "and it may take a bigger inflation scare than we saw in this week's CPI data or a very good labor market report at the beginning of March to push them higher."

 

"Absent that, we will likely be caught in a range again before the next move (which we believe will be a dollar decline when growth returns elsewhere)," analysts wrote.


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