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On February 25th, HP (HPQ.N) stated that its full-year earnings may reach the lower end of its previously forecast range due to tariffs and rising memory chip prices. The stock fell approximately 7% in after-hours trading after closing at $18.20 in New York. Over the past 12 months, the stock has fallen by 48%. HP and other device manufacturers are facing the dual challenges of rising memory chip prices and supply shortages as consumers buy new computers to replace outdated devices and acquire new AI capabilities. The company stated that the memory issue will persist throughout the fiscal year and may extend into the next. HP said it is raising product prices, working to bring in more suppliers, and adjusting some products to reduce memory demand. The company said today that it has made progress in these areas, including completing the certification of new suppliers. HP announced the launch of a multi-year cost-cutting plan aimed at saving the company $1 billion annually by 2028.Japans corporate services price index rose 2.6% year-on-year in January, up from 2.60% in the previous month.Japans corporate services price index fell 0.5% month-on-month in January, compared with 0% in the previous month.February 25th - Traders in the US futures and options markets are increasingly betting that the Federal Reserve will continue to cut interest rates next year rather than raise them. The spread of the Covered Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) futures, which is closely linked to Fed policy expectations, is inverting significantly – indicating that traders are beginning to anticipate a longer period of central bank easing. Previously, traders had been betting that the Fed would cut rates twice by 25 basis points before the end of this year and then resume rate hikes in 2027. However, the increasingly heated debate surrounding the impact of artificial intelligence on the labor market has prompted them to reassess this expectation. Jack McIntyre, portfolio manager at Brandywine Global, stated, "The question is how AI will cause inflation. The only aspect of AI that could potentially cause inflation is the construction of data centers and the associated energy demand." Meanwhile, in the spot market, traders lack confidence in how to allocate US Treasuries. JPMorgan Chases latest client survey (for the week ending February 23rd) shows that neutral positions have reached their highest level since the end of 2024.February 25th - New revisions to Japans corporate governance guidelines could release some of the $840 billion in cash held by listed companies and fuel a new wave of buying in the Japanese stock market. The Financial Services Agency (FSA) will submit draft rules to an expert panel on Thursday, requiring companies to verify the efficiency of their cash usage, with the aim of implementing this change this year. Despite significant improvements in corporate governance in recent years, Japanese companies still have a large amount of idle cash on their balance sheets. Investing these funds in higher-yielding projects could potentially enhance the attractiveness of the Japanese stock market to investors. Sho Nakazawa, equity strategist at Morgan Stanley Mitsubishi UFJ Securities, stated, "This revision will make it easier to anticipate increased allocations to growth sectors, as well as more stable growth in share buybacks and dividends," which in turn could lead to capital inflows from overseas investors. Analysts have long argued that excessive cash holdings by Japanese companies are one of the factors hindering improvements in return on equity (ROE), a key metric closely watched by stock investors, which has caused Japans ROE to lag behind its Western counterparts.

Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD struggles around $1,800 ahead of ISM Services PMI data

Daniel Rogers

Dec 05, 2022 12:04

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In the early Tokyo session, the gold price (XAU/USD) is under intense pressure to overcome the round-level barrier of $1,800.00. The precious metal is highly projected to display additional gains ahead and may extend towards a fresh three-month high at $1,824.63 as the bullish US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) failed to fade the risk appetite theme.

 

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is seeking to re-test the previous week's low around 104.40 as market investors believe that good employment growth in November is inadequate to offset forecasts of a slowdown in the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike pace (Fed). In addition, rates on 10-year US Treasuries have fallen further below 3.50 percent and are receiving no intermediate buffer.

 

Monday's publication of United States ISM Services data is the economic indicator that investors are anticipating for additional guidance. The expected economic data is 55.6, up from 54.4 in the previous release. Apart from that, the catalyst which will effect Gold prices is the ISM Services New Orders Index data. The economic statistics is anticipated to rise to 58.5, which shows healthy demand from households and may provide a cushion against future inflation.

 

After a drop to roughly its November 15 high of $1,777.32, the hourly demand for gold has increased significantly. The yellow metal is aiming for a three-month high of approximately $1,805.00. The Gold price has surpassed the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1,795.90 after sensing support from the 50-period EMA near $1,790.00, indicating a shift in the short-term trend toward the upside.