Gold Price Forecast: XAU / USD flirts with $1,850 support convergence; Fed's Powell, US NFP in focus

Gold price (XAU/USD) remains mostly illiquid around $1,855 as traders brace for the key data/events during early Monday in Europe. Adding filters to the XAU/USD movements could be the muddled headlines from China, as well as the US Dollar’s inaction despite a pullback in the Treasury bond yields.

The National Development and Reform Commission of the People's Republic of China (NDRC) recently stated that it "Will further discharge the potential for consumption," adding that China's economy is consistently improving, as reported by Reuters. Earlier in the day, market sentiment deteriorated after China's National People's Congress (NPC) annual session appeared to be a gloomy event due to its development target and geopolitical concerns.

Elsewhere, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly highlighted the significance of incoming data to determine how high the rates can go. Previously, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic renewed concerns about the Fed’s policy pivot while Federal Reserve published a semi-annual Monetary Policy Report on Friday wherein it plainly said, “Ongoing increases in the Fed funds rate target are necessary.” In addition, the report stated that the Fed is committed to restoring inflation to 2%.

It should be noted that US 10-year Treasury bond yields rose to their highest levels since November 2022 in the previous week before falling to 3.95% by the end of Friday and circling back to the same level at the latest. More significantly, US two-year bond coupons increased to levels not seen since 2008 before retracting to 4.85% as of press time. That said, the S&P 500 Futures print mild gains, mirroring Wall Street’s movements amid a light sluggish start to the key week, whereas the US Dollar Index (DXY) remains depressed around 104.45, down 0.05% intraday by the press time.

Moving ahead, Gold traders may witness further inaction in the market as traders remain cautious before the key events including Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Testimony, China’s inflation data and Friday’s US employment report for February.