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Citigroup expects the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates in June 2026, earlier than its previous forecast of July.May 1st - Geely Automobile announced on May 1st that its April sales volume was 235,164 vehicles, of which 135,591 were new energy vehicles, accounting for 58% of total sales.On May 1st, according to an analysis of the Bank of Japans accounts, Japan may have intervened in the yens exchange rate for the first time since July 2024, using approximately $34.5 billion on Thursday. By comparing data from the Bank of Japans accounts with forecasts from currency brokers, the intervention is estimated to be around 5.4 trillion yen. In 2024, Japanese authorities intervened to support the yen four times, averaging about 3.8 trillion yen each time. On Thursday evening, Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama warned that "decisive action" was imminent, after which the yen appreciated sharply. Subsequently, an informed source revealed that the authorities had intervened in the market. Data released by the central bank on Friday showed that due to fiscal factors, its current account is expected to decrease by 9.48 trillion yen next Thursday (the first working day after the Golden Week holiday). This decrease is far greater than the approximately 4.08 trillion yen predicted by currency brokers such as Tokyo Short-Term Fund, Chuo Short-Term Fund, and Ueda-Yagi Short-Term Fund. This is Katayamas first exchange rate intervention since taking office, and the market generally believes that the initial results are significant, pushing the yen to appreciate by more than 3%. However, this battle is far from over. Katayama also cautioned traders to remain vigilant, saying on Thursday that they should not put down their phones during the five-day Golden Week holiday.May 1st - According to the Ministry of Transport, it is estimated that on May 1st, 2026 (the first day of the May Day holiday), the total cross-regional passenger flow will reach 344.1 million person-times, an increase of 55.9% compared to the previous day and 3.4% year-on-year. Among them, railway passenger volume will reach 24.8 million person-times, an increase of 25.3% compared to the previous day and 7.3% year-on-year. Highway passenger flow (including non-commercial passenger car trips on expressways and ordinary national and provincial highways, and commercial passenger transport on highways) will reach 315.24 million person-times, an increase of 59.5% compared to the previous day and 3.2% year-on-year.According to Nikkei: Japan and Australia will prioritize cooperation in the rare earth and nickel sectors.

Gold Price Analysis: XAU/USD approaches the golden ratio of 61.8 percent

Daniel Rogers

Jun 09, 2022 11:28

截屏2022-06-07 下午5.15.00_1024x576.png 

 

Following a rise into the 50 percent mean reversion level of the hourly bullish impulse highlighted in previous trading, the gold price is retreating further to $1,852 as demonstrated by the technical analysis below. The US dollar has been on the ascendant over the middle of the week and has maintained its strength in Asia, as assessed by the DXY index.

 

The US dollar index increased on Wednesday, reversing earlier drops, after investors exited equities and the US 10-year auction yielded 3.03 percent, up from 2.943 percent at the previous auction. In addition, the dollar set a new 20-year high versus the yen, as the Bank of Japan remained one of the few global central banks to retain a dovish approach. The ensuing increase in US rates has resulted in the 10-year holding over 3%, bolstering the greenback.

 

Gold has been praised for its safe-haven attributes prior to the OECD's predictions that the world will pay a heavy price for the Ukraine conflict. It reduced its forecast for global growth this year from 4.5 percent in December to 3 percent. This follows the revision of the World Bank's growth prediction earlier this week. Gold surrendered some of its late-session gains as the US dollar gained, according to ANZ Bank analysts.

 

In the meanwhile, analysts at TD Securities explained: "although the war in Ukraine helped send the bears packing, the waning of geopolitical risk premia across global assets has not prompted this group of discretionary traders to liquidate their positions.

 

"In turn, the disparity between gold and real rates may be linked to both an unwarranted rise in real rates owing to quantitative tightening and the still-massive amount of complacent length maintained in gold, which is keeping the yellow metal's prices high."

 

The focus will shift to the European Central Bank tomorrow as markets prepare for Friday's US inflation report.

 

The analysts at TD Securities stated that until Christine Lagarde "commits to a series of 50s," the EUR/USD has little upside potential, especially with the Euribor curve trading as it is and US CPI expected the next day. The risk/reward ratio favors a decline in EUR/USD trading. The long-term inflation outlook will be crucial.

 

TDS researchers also predicted that the ECB will "announce that the APP will terminate within weeks and convey a clear signal that rate rises are coming in July and September (October remains a more interesting meeting in this sense). Forecasts indicate a rise in inflation and a slowdown in economic growth, underscoring the ECB's future difficulty.

 

Consequently, gold may be desirable due to its safe-haven features. The worsening economic environment has allowed investors to support the precious metal. Gold recently surpassed $1,850 despite a stronger USD.


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