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On April 6, German Berenberg Bank said that due to the strong reaction of some US trading partners to the new tariffs and the widespread uncertainty, European economic sentiment in the second quarter may be worse than we previously expected. We lowered our forecast for real GDP growth in the euro area and the UK in the second quarter by 0.1 percentage point to 0.1% and 0.2% month-on-month respectively. This will lower our annual forecast for the euro area economy in 2025 to 0.9%, and our economic forecast for the UK in 2025 and 2026 to 0.9% and 1.3%, respectively.April 6, Germanys Berenberg Bank said that tariff uncertainty has not yet reached its peak. Trumps tariff shock has laid the foundation for negotiations. As long as the results of Trumps negotiations with various countries are unknown, companies around the world may hesitate to invest in the United States or its most affected trading partners. The failure of these negotiations may lead to rounds of tit-for-tat retaliation. Trump may also add new tariffs on specific industries, including medicines, which have so far been exempt from his reciprocal tariffs. We assume that in response to rising US inflation, economic turmoil and threats of retaliation, the United States will negotiate to cancel about half of its new tariffs on Europe by the end of the second quarter. Otherwise, the bank said it would have to further lower its forecasts for US and eurozone growth.The strong earthquake in Myanmar has killed 3,564 people, injured 5,012 people, and left 210 people missing.On April 6, German Berenberg Bank said that downward pressure on US economic growth has intensified. Based on the reciprocal tariffs announced on Wednesday, the sharp decline in US stocks (US households exposure to the stock market has reached a record high), and the continued rise in uncertainty that has hindered corporate investment and employment plans, we have lowered our forecast for US real GDP growth in 2025 from 2.3% to 1.7%, and GDP in 2026 from 2.0% to 1.6%. Due to the increase in tariffs and the recent rise in inflation expectations, we expect US inflation (measured by core PCE) to reach 3.0% in 2025, compared with the previous forecast of 2.7%.European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will meet with British Prime Minister Starmer in London on April 24.

Gold Gains Some Solace As Dollar Falls From 20-Year Highs

Aria Thomas

Aug 31, 2022 10:53

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Gold prices gained slightly on Tuesday as the dollar retreated from a 20-year high, but hawkish Federal Reserve signals remained a market drag.


Around 21:07 E.T., spot gold rose 0.1% to $1,738.55 per ounce, while gold futures exceeded $1,750 per ounce with a rise of the same size (01:07 GMT).


Due to the dollar's minor weakness, bullion prices climbed on Monday. The dollar declined versus the euro as a result of forecasts that the European Central Bank will tighten monetary policy more aggressively than initially anticipated.


However, the possibility of rising U.S. interest rates severely dampens the outlook for gold.


The price of gold fell last week after the Federal Reserve indicated that it had no plans to ease monetary tightening. This action pushed the dollar to its highest level in twenty years and increased short-term Treasury yields.


Currently, the metal markets are anticipating this week's U.S. employment report. If the labor market continues to strengthen, the Federal Reserve will likely be able to hike interest rates more quickly.


After the Fed's remarks on Friday, the markets are pricing in a greater possibility of a 75-basis-point rate hike in September.


Despite volatility in the stock and currency markets, there have been little safe-haven purchases of gold. Nonetheless, things might change if economic conditions worsen.


Analysts at Oanda wrote in a note: "If equities remain in risk aversion mode as the speculative money that bought risky assets this month becomes nervous that economic growth is about to implode, gold could stabilize here."


Copper prices rose among industrial metals on Tuesday, aided by a falling dollar.


Copper futures rose 0.3 percent to $3.6108. Due to China's deterioration, copper prices are substantially below their levels from 2022. China is the top importer of copper.


The Chinese manufacturing activity data on Wednesday will provide further insight into copper demand.