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On September 17th, the Bank of England cancelled its plan to sell long-term government bonds as part of a major overhaul of its quantitative easing program. Under the plan, its £488 billion portfolio would be gradually liquidated by September 2034. According to the still-unfinalized proposal, the bank would hold £120 billion of UK government bonds maturing in 2049 or later, matching them with future paper money issuance. Another £222 billion of bonds maturing before 2035 would be gradually liquidated, and the remaining £146 billion maturing between 2035 and 2049 would be sold at a rate of £20 billion per year, possibly directly to the government through the Debt Management Office. In a letter to the Chancellor of the Exchequer, Bank of England Governor Bailey stated that the arrangement "maintains the independence of monetary policy" and will "maximize the effectiveness of funds by minimizing costs and risks during the programs implementation." All planned quantitative easing auctions will be suspended until April next year while consultations with the Debt Management Office (DMO) are underway regarding the terms of the sales. This postponement, by avoiding competition with government bond issuance, is expected to alleviate short-term pressure on government bond yields.ECB Governing Council member Rehn: We can reduce red tape in the European banking and financial sector, but a strong capital buffer remains crucial.On September 17th, local time, the Federal Reserve held its September 2026 FOMC meeting, raising the target range for the federal funds rate to 3.75%-4.00%. Donghai Securities analyst Liu Sijia stated that the Feds 25bp rate hike was in line with market expectations. Before the meeting, the market had already priced in a rate hike with a probability exceeding 90%. Besides fulfilling the hawkish stance since the Jackson Hole meeting, this also helps to rebuild the Feds image of independence and reduce the upward risk of the term premium in long-term US Treasury yields. Currently, CME data shows a probability of around 50% for an October rate hike and nearly 90% for another rate hike this year, close to the expectations shown in the dot plot. However, without the inflationary concerns arising from rising oil prices due to supply factors, the current K-shaped economic divergence in the US and the weak balance in the labor market with declining supply and demand do not support the Fed initiating a cyclical series of rate hikes. Warsh also stated that current financial conditions are not restrictive, and this rate hike is a partial withdrawal of easing. Whether a cyclical series of rate hikes will begin remains uncertain.The yield on 30-year UK government bonds fell 5.9 basis points on the day, currently trading at 5.8003%.ECB Governing Council member Rehn: The tightness of the Eurozone labor market after the Ukraine conflict and the post-pandemic crisis is not the same as in 2022.

Gold Gains Ground but Remains Below $1,700 as Fed Uncertainty Grows

Haiden Holmes

Sep 19, 2022 10:46

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On Monday, gold prices recovered slightly from recent losses, but remained below key levels as investors anticipated fresh Federal Reserve policy tightening measures.


Spot gold jumped 0.2% to $1,678.51 per ounce by 20:03 ET, while gold futures climbed 0.2% to $1,680.40 per ounce (00:03 GMT).


Bullion prices plummeted to 2-and-a-half-year lows last week as red-hot U.S. inflation data indicated that the Fed is likely to increase interest rates by a large margin this week and for the remainder of the year.


The revelation pushed the dollar to levels not seen in nearly two decades and boosted U.S. Treasury yields, driving capital to flee gold. As the Federal Reserve began to boost interest rates this year, prices for the yellow metal plummeted from its 2022 peaks.


Gold now has an uphill battle to surpass $1,700, a key support level that it violated for the second time this year last week. Before this week's Fed announcement, the gold price is expected to remain relatively constant.


At the conclusion of a two-day meeting, it was widely predicted that the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates by 75 basis points, with some traders pricing in a 100 basis point hike. It is projected that the U.S. benchmark interest rate would end the year at over 4 percent, its highest level since the financial crisis of 2008.


Copper futures climbed 0.4% to $3.5547 per pound, reversing the severe falls of the previous week.


This year, the price of the red metal has been severely lowered by fears of a global fall in industrial activity, increasing inflation, and rising interest rates. China's economic downturn has also had a significant impact on copper prices.


As a result of a strike at Escondida, the world's largest copper mine, the red metal's price may be sustained by a shrinking supply.