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January 14th - According to a report from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), existing home sales in the U.S. rose 5.1% month-over-month in December. On a monthly basis, home sales increased in all regions. On a year-over-year basis, sales increased in the South, remained flat in the Midwest and West, and declined in the Northeast. NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun stated, "2025 will remain a challenging year for homebuyers, with record high home prices and historically low existing home sales. However, market conditions began to improve in the fourth quarter, with mortgage rates declining and home price growth slowing. After seasonal adjustment, December home sales reached their highest level in nearly three years, with widespread increases across all four major regions." The economist added, "Inventory levels remain tight. Homeowners are more cautious in deciding whether to list or withdraw their properties due to low seller willingness to sell. Similar to previous years, more homes are expected to enter the market starting in February."On January 14th, Federal Reserve Chairwoman Paulson reiterated on Wednesday that she expects the Fed to cut short-term interest rates later this year if the economy performs in line with her expectations of moderate inflation and a stable job market. In prepared remarks for a Philadelphia Chamber of Commerce event, Paulson stated, "My baseline expectations are rather modest," anticipating inflation to fall to around 2% by the end of the year, a stable job market, and economic growth remaining at around 2%. She noted, "If all of this happens, then some modest adjustments to the federal funds rate later this year might be appropriate." Regarding the job market, Paulson reiterated, "The labor market is clearly slowing, but it hasnt collapsed." She believes risks have increased, which is one of the key reasons she supported the FOMCs 75-basis-point rate cut last year.US business inventories rose 0.3% month-on-month in October, below the expected 0.2% and the previous reading of 0.20%.US existing home sales rose 5.1% month-over-month in December, below the expected 2.2% and the previous months figure revised up from 0.50% to 0.7%.Federal Reserves Paulson: The U.S. economy is not doing well in every aspect right now.

Gold Falls Below $1,900; The dollar Soars As The Fed Prepares to Double Its Rate Hikes

Charlie Brooks

Apr 26, 2022 09:57

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On Monday's session on the New York Comex, an ounce of the yellow gold returned to the $1,800 level.


This came as the dollar strengthened on expectations that the Federal Reserve would hike rates by 50 basis points, or half a percentage point, at its May policy meeting next week — more than double the 25 basis points, or quarter point, approved in March, the first increase in the post-pandemic era in the United States.


On Monday, Comex front-month gold futures for June finished down $38.30, or 2%, at $1,896 an ounce. On April 18, June gold reached a six-week high of $2,003 on concerns that the US could enter recession as a result of strong Fed attempts to rein down inflation. Gold is frequently used as a hedge against economic and political uncertainty.


Over the last week, a series of Fed speakers assuaged market concerns that the economy would turn negative as a result of the central bank's efforts to contain price pressures developing at their highest rate in 40 years.


While fears of a hard landing have not completely vanished, optimism, particularly regarding the sterling job market, has won over some pessimists. This has resulted in the dollar surging – the primary beneficiary of a rate hike — at the expense of gold and other safe-haven assets.


The Dollar Index, which compares the US currency to six main rivals, touched a 25-month high of 101.745 on Monday.


US bond yields, which frequently move in lockstep with the dollar, have recently decoupled from the greenback. The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note fell for the third consecutive day, dropping about 4% on the day.


While risk aversion across the board drew investors to safe-haven assets, gold's near-term charts showed the possibility of a rebound to the $1,900 lows, at the very least, following the week's loss of more than $100. 


"Gold has begun to exhibit oversold conditions on a daily basis, which may result in a short-term relief rally, albeit not necessarily a reversal," Dixit explained. "The $1,925 to $1,935 level remains a hurdle, but a rebound is probable." If history is any guide, gold will almost certainly find buyers at lower prices."


On the other hand, he noted, a Comex settlement below $1,888 will exacerbate gold's troubles.

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