EUR/USD
1.19483
-0.045%
Gold
5530.19
2.103%
Oil
64.507
1.857%
USD/JPY
153.410
0.003%
GBP/USD
1.37944
-0.093%
GBP/JPY
211.625
-0.075%
Real-time News
On January 29th, it was reported that the eight OPEC+ member countries will hold an online meeting on Sunday to review their supply policy for March. According to representatives at the meeting, OPEC+ remains prepared to approve a suspension of production increases, despite US threats against member country Iran pushing oil prices to $70. One representative previously stated that a significant supply disruption could prompt the organization to take action. However, for now, their stance does not appear to be influenced by this weeks rise in crude oil prices. OPEC+ faces more uncertain choices at its subsequent monthly meeting (likely to be held in early March), when the organization must decide on its course of action after the first-quarter suspension of production increases expires. Other countries, such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE, have shown an urgent desire to resume production. However, whether further increases in production are feasible remains another question.The Central Bank of Ukraine projects GDP growth of 2.8% and inflation of 6% in 2027.On January 29th, copper prices rallied again after nearly a month of adjustment, with Shanghai copper futures hitting a record high of 110,000 yuan/ton before slightly retreating at the close. By the afternoon close, the main Shanghai copper contract had risen 6,860 yuan/ton, a gain of 6.71%. 1. On the macro level, the Federal Reserve maintained its current interest rate. The minutes indicated that the US job market is currently stable, and market participants have low expectations for rate cuts in the coming months. Furthermore, the rise in commodity prices is primarily due to the impact of US tariff policies rather than a robust economy. Excluding tariffs, the US core PCE is still slightly above 2%. 2. From a fundamental perspective, recent strikes at South American mines have fueled expectations of further tightening of raw material supply, supporting copper prices. However, as copper prices continue to rise, consumer demand is gradually weakening. Domestic copper social inventories and LME copper inventories are accumulating continuously. Considering the inflow of copper into US inventories, global copper inventories are relatively high. Recently, investment bank Macquarie pointed out that the likelihood of the US imposing tariffs on copper is decreasing. Although current copper inventories do not yet provide sufficient incentive for re-export, a supply shortage in the market could lead to renewed outflows. 3. Currently, the strength of copper prices is more influenced by factors such as the weakening dollar and mining disruptions, rather than demand factors. Furthermore, the surge in Shanghai copper prices has opened the import window for longer-term contracts, and coupled with inventory accumulation and the Spring Festival holiday, high copper prices also carry the risk of high volatility.On January 29th, Investec analyst Ryan Djajasaputra pointed out that Powells message seemed to be that the Federal Reserve was in no hurry to adjust its policy in the short term. Powell emphasized that current policy did not appear overly tight, while highlighting the strong performance of the US economy. Furthermore, Powell clearly stated that the Fed wanted to see more progress in inflation moving towards its target level. Commodity prices continued to rise, which Powell attributed primarily to the upward effect of tariffs. Analysts believe the implication is clear: the Fed may be entering a pause in rate cuts, with the next 25 basis point rate cut expected in June.Steffier: Raised the price target for Meta Platforms (META.O) from $785 to $820.
