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On September 17, Scott Rubner, head of equity and equity derivatives strategy at Citadel Securities, said that the current rally that has pushed U.S. stocks to new highs may experience some volatility in the coming weeks, but is expected to end strongly before the end of the year. Rubner wrote that the S&P 500 has risen 17% from its low for the year, and short-term risks include overvaluation, seasonal fluctuations common in September and October, and possible selling by trend-following funds. However, these potential signs of weakness are unlikely to last, as the tailwinds supporting the stock markets rise - including corporate spending on artificial intelligence and demand from retail investors - will continue to power the market in the final months of 2025. "Stay positive on structural demand, but hedge against short-term risks, as September to October remains a fragile window," Rubner wrote, adding that investors should view short-term pullbacks as buying opportunities.European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stated that Russias war economy relies on revenue from fossil fuels. To prevent this, the Commission will propose an accelerated phase-out of Russian fossil fuel imports.European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen: Discussed with Trump strengthening our joint efforts to increase economic pressure on Russia through additional measures.European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen: I had a pleasant conversation with Trump.Microsoft (MSFT.O) shares fell 1%.

GBPUSD bulls surpass 1.18 despite conflicting UK employment data

Daniel Rogers

Nov 15, 2022 16:55

 截屏2022-11-15 下午4.26.14.png

 

GBPUSD buyers surpass 1.1800 to resume intraday highs near 1.1810 amid mixed data from the United Kingdom's most recent employment report, which was released early Tuesday morning in London. The Cable pair may have done so in response to the US Dollar's sluggish movement and Britain's geopolitical woes.

 

The Claimant Count Change for the United Kingdom increased to 3,300 against estimates of -12.6K and previous readings of 25.5K, while the Unemployment Rate soared to 3.6%, above market expectations and prior readings of 3.5%.

 

The Times reports that rumors that UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak will propose a plan to increase the national living wage and provide cost-of-living payments of up to 1,100 pounds ($1,292.61) to eight million households also benefit GBPUSD buyers. According to the report, "Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt and Sunak will accept an official recommendation to increase the living wage from £9.50 per hour to about £10.40 per hour, a roughly 10% rise."

 

Aside from this, recent Fed policymaker pronouncements appear to have boosted expectations for fewer rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve (Fed), which has also bolstered GBPUSD bulls. Vice Chair for Supervision of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Michael Barr, remarked that the rate of inflation is overly high. Vice-Chair Lael Brainard previously backed a 50 basis point (bps) rate rise, but she conceded, "We have additional work to do." Christopher Waller, governor of the Federal Reserve, called for a 0.50 percentage point rate hike on Monday and cautioned against the market's interpretation of the pivot.

 

At press time, S&P 500 Futures report intraday gains of 0.50% near the monthly high, as US 10-year Treasury rates grind higher around 3.87%, threatening the US Dollar Index's (DXY) recovery near 107.00.

 

Prior to the US Producer Price Index (PPI) for October, which is expected to be 8.3% YoY versus 8.5% before, GBPUSD traders should focus on the aforementioned risk catalysts for clear direction. Positive results are anticipated for the UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October and the British Autumn Statement on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively.


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