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The number of rate cuts this year is expected to increase. 1. JPMorgan Chase: The updated dot plot indicates room for three rate cuts this year, one more than the June dot plot. 2. Deutsche Bank: The updated dot plot median may indicate a total of 75 basis points of rate cuts in 2025, 25 basis points more than the June forecast. 3. Barclays: The dot plot indicates three rate cuts this year, one each in 2026 and 2027, while the median long-term rate forecast remains unchanged at 3.0%. 4. Bank of Montreal: The median rate forecast for the end of 2025 is expected to be lowered to reflect the possibility of 25 basis point cuts at both the October and December meetings. The dot plot remains unchanged from June. 1. Pepperstone: The Federal Reserve is likely to disappoint market expectations. The dot plot median is likely to remain unchanged, still indicating only a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points this year. 2. UBS: The dot plot will show two rate cuts this year, while the market expects closer to three. Participants economic outlook forecasts will also be in focus. 3. Bank of America: With macroeconomic forecasts largely unchanged, the median Fed rate forecast for 2025 will continue to indicate a 50 basis point cut, despite a downward shift in the overall dot plot. 4. Goldman Sachs: We expect the updated dot plot to show two rate cuts this year, to 3.875%. While the Fed may currently be planning three consecutive rate cuts this year, it may decide that forcing this into the dot plot is unnecessary. 5. Morgan Stanley: We expect the median dot plot to still show two rate cuts this year, but actual economic data may push the Fed to continue cutting rates throughout the rest of the year, extending this round of cuts into January. Other Views: 1. Citigroup: The updated dot plot is likely to indicate two to three rate cuts this year, and the median rate forecast for 2026 may also be revised downward.The UKs core CPI monthly rate in August was 0.3%, in line with expectations and the previous value of 0.2%.The UKs core retail price index was 4.4% year-on-year in August, compared with 4.70% in the previous month.The UKs retail price index rose by 0.4% in August, in line with expectations of 0.5% and the previous reading of 0.40%.The UKs CPI monthly rate in August was 0.3%, in line with expectations and the previous value of 0.10%.

GBP/JPY crosses 164.00 as the chance of a BOJ cautious policy grows

Alina Haynes

Jun 17, 2022 12:05

 截屏2022-06-17 上午10.08.28.png

 

The GBP/JPY pair has swiftly eclipsed its two-day high and the critical resistance level of 164.00 as the chance of an ultra-loose monetary policy by the Bank of Japan grows (BOJ) (BOJ). A contrast in monetary policy between the Bank of England (BOE) and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) has boosted the pound bulls versus the Japanese yen.

 

Thursday's monetary policy meeting resulted in a 25 basis point (bps) increase in the Bank of England's interest rates. The interest rates are officially risen to 1.25 percent. BOE Governor Andrew Bailey and his colleagues made a conclusion that was consistent with market participants' expectations. In view of inflationary pressures in the UK economy, a 50-bps rate hike should have been enacted, but the BOE's failure to completely tighten monetary policy is a result of lower growth forecasts.

 

The UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) has surged past 9 percent on an annual basis, and growing price pressures are aggressively eating into the wages of individuals. Therefore, the BOE is essential to restore lower inflation levels as rapidly as feasible.

 

Returning to the Tokyo front, the BOJ will continue to infuse helicopter money into the economy since their inflation rate of 2.5 percent per annum is severely polluted by rising oil prices. The BOJ is projected to retain its present posture notwithstanding the continuing of growing price pressures.


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