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On Monday, February 9th, the German DAX 30 index closed up 284.52 points, or 1.15%, at 25004.32; the UK FTSE 100 index closed up 15.84 points, or 0.15%, at 10385.59; the French CAC 40 index closed up 49.44 points, or 0.60%, at 8323.28; the Euro Stoxx 50 index closed up 60.96 points, or 1.02%, at 6059.36; the Spanish IBEX 35 index closed up 244.61 points, or 1.36%, at 18187.91; and the Italian FTSE MIB index closed up 923.30 points, or 2.01%, at 46800.50.February 10th - European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Jean-Claude Nagel stated that the ECBs current policy interest rate is at an appropriate level, and inflation, after a brief dip, is expected to stabilize near the 2% target. The ECB unanimously decided last week to keep its main interest rate unchanged at 2%, but some policymakers remained concerned that inflation, which had slowed to 1.7% last month, might weaken further, forcing the Eurozone central bank to take action. Nagel stated that the ECB would only intervene if medium-term inflation expectations deviated "persistently and significantly" from the target, but this does not appear to be the case at present. He said, "Several factors suggest that the current interest rate level is appropriate. First, the (inflation) below target is short-term and limited in magnitude; in the medium term, inflation remains at our target level." He added that long-term inflation expectations are "firmly anchored," and core inflation indicators support this assessment, as does the latest update to the ECBs December forecasts.The US 3-month Treasury auction ended February 9th with a winning yield of 3.6%, compared to 3.60% previously.The bid-to-cover ratio for the US 3-month Treasury bond auction as of February 9 was 2.76, compared to 2.81 previously.The US auction of 6-month Treasury bonds ending February 9th yielded a winning bid of 3.5%, compared to 3.53% previously.

GBP/JPY Falls Below 158.00 as UK Recession Concerns Grow

Daniel Rogers

May 19, 2022 10:06

Following Wednesday's release of UK inflation data, the GBP/JPY pair is likely to experience a sharp decline. After the UK's Office for National Statistics reported the annual UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) at a staggering 9 percent, the pound bulls shown widespread weakness. The asset has declined almost 2.5 percent since Tuesday, when it reached a recent high of 161.85.

 

Despite the fact that the UK Statistics Office has announced a slight decline in the annual rate from the consensus of 9.1 percent, a figure of 9 percent is sufficient to cause mayhem in the FX realm. It appears that the Bank of England (BOE) has been left with little choice but to implement a massive rate hike, since rising price pressures would aggravate the real income position for people.

 

The monthly rate of inflation in the United Kingdom increased to 2.5% from 1.1% previously. While the core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, has increased to 6.2%, it has remained in line with expectations.

 

On the Japanese yen front, weaker than expected Gross Domestic Product (GDP) numbers have encouraged yen bulls. The annualized GDP number for Japan remained higher than the average estimate of -1.8 percent, at -1 percent. While the quarterly figure of -0.2 percent was still negative, it exceeded the predictions of -0.4 percent. Investors will depend on Japan's Friday-due inflation data for further guidance.

 

The early estimate for the annual CPI in Japan is 1.5 percent, but the core CPI could fall to -0.9 percent from -0.7 percent previously.

GBP/JPY

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