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On April 26, according to the Wall Street Journal, in order to simplify the negotiations on reciprocal tariffs, US negotiating officials plan to use a new framework developed by the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR), which lists major categories of negotiations, such as tariffs and quotas, non-tariff trade barriers, digital trade, product origin principles, economic security and other commercial issues. In these categories, US officials will put forward specific requirements for individual countries, but people familiar with the matter emphasized that this document may also be adjusted at any time. People familiar with the matter said that the United States initial plan is to negotiate with 18 major trading partners in turn over the next two months. The initial plan is to alternately participate in the talks with six countries per week for three weeks (six countries in the first week, another six countries in the second week, and another six countries in the third week) until the deadline of July 8. If US President Trump does not extend the 90-day suspension period he set by then, those countries that cannot reach an agreement will begin to face reciprocal tariffs.On April 26, after the United States announced additional tariffs on goods from many countries, Peruvian business people expressed concerns that the US governments extreme measures would disrupt the global trade order and may even trigger a global economic recession. Alvaro Barrenechea Chavez, vice president of the Peruvian-Chinese Chamber of Commerce, said that the negative impact of the US tariff policy has begun to emerge and hoped that the US government would rethink. Recognizing the importance of countries working together to promote development, I think this is the best way to become a true "world citizen."Market news: Musks xAI company plans to raise about US$20 billion in a financing round.Conflict situation: 1. Ukrainian top commander: Russia tried to use air strikes as a cover to increase ground attacks, but was repelled by Ukraine. 2. Ukrainian Air Force: Russia launched more than 103 drones in the night attack on Ukraine. 3. Local officials said Ukraine launched an attack in the Belgorod region of Russia, killing two people. 4. The local governor said that Russia launched an attack on the Dnipropetrovsk region of Ukraine, killing one person and injuring eight people. Peace talks: 1. Trump: ① The situation between Russia and Ukraine is gradually becoming clear, and they are "very close" to reaching an agreement. ② Ukraine is unlikely to join NATO. ③ Ukraine has not yet signed the rare earth agreement and hopes that the agreement can be signed immediately. ④ It is foreseeable that the United States will conduct commercial cooperation with Ukraine and Russia after reaching an agreement. 2. Russian Foreign Minister: Russia is "ready to reach an agreement on Ukraine." 3. Russian Presidential Assistant Ushakov: Russia and the United States will continue to maintain active dialogue. 4. Russian Presidential Assistant: Putin discussed the possibility of resuming direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine with the US envoy. 5. The differences between the United States, Europe and Ukraine are clear. The documents show that European countries and Ukraine have raised objections to some of the US proposals to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict. 6. Market news: As part of the peace agreement, the United States asked Russian President Putin to abandon the demilitarization requirement. Other situations: 1. President of Hungarys OTP Bank: We hope to return to all business areas in Russia after the (Russia-Ukraine) conflict ends. 2. Ukrainian President Zelensky: US ground forces are not necessary for Ukraine. 3. Trump said Crimea will remain in Russia, Zelensky: Never recognize it. Agreeing with Trumps view, Crimea cannot be recovered by force. 4. NATO Secretary-General Rutte met with Trump and senior US officials to discuss defense spending, NATO summit, and the Ukrainian conflict.Rising global trade risks, overall policy uncertainty and the sustainability of U.S. debt top the list of potential risks to the U.S. financial system, according to the Federal Reserves latest financial stability report released on Friday. This is the first time the Fed has conducted a semi-annual survey on financial risks since Trump returned to the White House. 73% of respondents said that global trade risks are their biggest concern, more than double the proportion reported in November. Half of the respondents believe that overall policy uncertainty is the most worrying issue, an increase from the same period last year. The survey also found that issues related to recent market turmoil have received more attention, with 27% of respondents worried about the functioning of the U.S. Treasury market, up from 17% last fall. Foreign withdrawals from U.S. assets and the value of the dollar have also risen on the list of concerns.

Foreign exchange trading reminder on October 8: Market risk appetite is heating up, U.S. Treasuries fall, commodity currencies rise

Oct 26, 2021 10:54

The U.S. dollar remained stable against a basket of currencies on Thursday (October 7). The U.S. labor market data to be released on Friday may provide clues to the timing of the Fed’s next move. Most major currency pairs are trading in the near-term range. Members are unwilling to bet heavily before the data is released.

The dollar index was flat at 94.21, not far from the one-year high of 94.504 hit last week. The number of initial jobless claims in the United States declined last week, but the number of layoffs in September rose from a 24-year low, partly because hospitals fired unvaccinated employees and a lack of workers forced some facilities to close.

Michael Brown, a senior analyst at the payment company Caxton, said that today's market is quite typical of the dull before the release of non-agricultural employment data. I think that until the employment report is released, we may have been stuck in a range like this, but even then, considering that the reduction of quantitative easing in November looks almost certain, any weakness in the dollar should subside.

As the momentum for the shift from the pandemic crisis policy has increased, the Fed has stated that it may start reducing monthly bond purchases as early as November, and will raise interest rates afterwards.

Institutional surveys show that the non-agricultural employment data to be released on Friday is expected to show continued improvement in the labor market, with 455,000 new jobs expected in September.

Strategists said that if the number of non-agricultural employment is less than 200,000, it may lower downsize expectations, which in turn will cause US Treasury yields to fall. Bank of America strategists said that if non-agricultural employment data is expected to be better than expected, the dollar will rise against the euro and against the Swiss franc.

Mark Haefele, chief investment officer of UBS Global Wealth Management, said in a report that the steadily improving labor market and steady economic growth in the United States should give the Fed the green light to reduce its quantitative easing program.

A foreign exchange strategist at Bank of America Global Research said in a report that in the week after the non-farm payrolls report was released, the U.S. dollar tends to reverse most of the rise or fall since the day the report was released.

The euro performed poorly, with the euro falling 0.03% to 1.1552 against the dollar; long-term large investors and option accounts bought the euro, while speculative accounts were basically on the sidelines, and hedging activities around 1.564 affected the exchange rate level. Two European traders said that there is a large euro sell order at 1.1580-00, and there is a buying order for the euro against the Swiss franc at 1.0700 and above.

Safe-haven currencies led the decline; the Japanese yen bottomed out, with approximately $2.6 billion options with a strike price of 111.00 that will expire on Friday.

Risk-sensitive currencies rose on Thursday. On the eve of the release of the key US non-farm payrolls report, the US debt ceiling impasse showed signs of easing, and concerns about energy tensions in Europe have cooled, improving market risk appetite.

The pound rose 0.27% to 1.3619 against the dollar, as global risk sentiment slightly improved. Analysts said that the prospect of a rate hike by the Bank of England reduced some of the pound's downside potential.

The Australian dollar led the gains, and the Australian dollar rose 0.55% to 0.7312 against the US dollar; boosted by earlier exporter demand and offshore buying of Australian Treasury bonds, large-scale investment sales in the medium and long term slowed the Australian dollar’s gains; iron ore hit two weeks The biggest increase has come. Kenneth Broux, a strategist at Societe Generale, said that the Australian dollar is cheap and the economic restart means that theoretically, the Australian dollar can regain some of its lost ground after a terrible third quarter.

As oil prices rebounded sharply, the U.S. dollar fell 0.39% against the Canadian dollar, setting a new one-month low to 1.2550; the New Zealand dollar rose 0.16% to 0.6925 against the U.S. dollar.

Friday preview


time area index The former value Predictive value
07:50 Japan August trade account (100 million yen) 6223 -3853
09:45 China September Caixin Service Industry PMI 46.7 49.2
14:00 Germany August unadjusted trade account (100 million euros) 181 150
20:30 America After seasonal adjustment of non-agricultural employment population changes in September (10,000) 23.5 48.8
20:30 America Annual average hourly wage rate in September (%) 4.3 4.6
20:30 America September unemployment rate (%) 5.2 5.1
20:30 America After the seasonal adjustment of the changes in the employment population in the manufacturing industry in September (10,000) 3.7 2.5
20:30 America September labor participation rate (%) 61.7 61.7
20:30 America Changes in the number of non-agricultural employment in private enterprises in September (10,000) 24.3 45
20:30 Canada September unemployment rate (%) 7.1 6.9
20:30 Canada Changes in the number of employees in September (10,000) 9.02 6
22:00 America Final value of monthly rate of wholesale inventory in August (%) 1.2 1.2
01:00 AM America The total number of wells drilled in the United States for the week as of October 8 (ports) 528 535
01:00 AM America The total number of oil rigs (mouth) for the week ending October 8 428 433


Summary of Institutional Views


Commerzbank: The pound will fall further against the dollar


Commerzbank's technical analysis still predicts that the pound will fall further against the US dollar. The Elliott wave pattern is still negative in the intraday. The current trend is down. On the upside, the initial resistance is located at the high of 1.3752 on September 23, and the 55-day moving average 1.3758 thereafter. And the mid-September high of 1.3914, as long as it is blocked below 1.3914 to maintain a bearish tendency, it will fall to 1.3161 where the 200-week moving average is located, and the recent low is at 1.3411.

United Overseas Bank: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand may stand still in November


UOB believes that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand may avoid taking action on policy interest rates at its meeting in January next year and resume its interest rate hike cycle in February (and May). As expected, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand decided at its October meeting to The official cash rate was raised to 0.50%. Earlier, at the meeting, it was expressed that we would prefer to adjust the interest rate when the monetary policy statement is issued. Looking ahead, we are cautious about the speed of interest rate hikes, although the decision this month is expected to be a series of decisions by the Federal Reserve Bank of New Zealand next year. The first of the interest rate hikes is that the Fed’s forecast for a rapid rate hike before 2022 is too optimistic; the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will also hold a meeting in November. For now, it is expected to keep interest rates unchanged in November because The Fed has "taken off" from record lows and is now more willing to maintain choice. Any further tightening may be carried out in a small and stable manner.