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On May 15th, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange released preliminary figures for my countrys balance of payments for the first quarter of 2026. In the first quarter of 2026, my countrys current account surplus was RMB 1,282.1 billion, including a goods trade surplus of RMB 1,721.2 billion, a services trade deficit of RMB 413.9 billion, a primary income deficit of RMB 52 billion, and a secondary income surplus of RMB 26.8 billion. The capital and financial account (including net errors and omissions for the quarter) showed a deficit of RMB 1,282.1 billion, with net inflows of direct investment into China. In US dollar terms, in the first quarter of 2026, my countrys current account surplus was USD 184.1 billion, including a goods trade surplus of USD 247.4 billion, a services trade deficit of USD 59.6 billion, a primary income deficit of USD 7.5 billion, and a secondary income surplus of USD 3.9 billion. The capital and financial account (including net errors and omissions for the quarter) showed a deficit of USD 184.1 billion.Fitch Ratings: Europe’s energy mix makes it vulnerable to a potential conflict with Iran.Market news: The UAE attempted to coordinate with Saudi Arabia on actions against Iran, but was unsuccessful.On May 15th, China Eastern Airlines reported that in April 2026, its passenger capacity (measured by available seat kilometers) increased by 0.84% year-on-year; passenger traffic (measured by passenger kilometers) increased by 3.79% year-on-year; and the load factor was 87.87%, an increase of 2.50 percentage points year-on-year. Cargo and mail traffic (measured by cargo and mail ton-kilometers) increased by 19.10% year-on-year in April 2026.Indias Trade Secretary: The gold import quota agreement with the UAE has not had a significant impact on the overall gold import bill.

Forecast for the price of gold: XAU/USD eases below the $1,804 barrier as Fed hawks back off due to weaker US inflation

Alina Haynes

Aug 11, 2022 11:58

 截屏2022-08-10 上午11.45.08_1024x576.png

 

US inflation-driven gains in the price of gold (XAU/USD) are fading as the metal declines to $1,790 on Thursday during the opening Tokyo session. The recent decline in the price of precious metals may be related to conflicting worries about the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) upcoming actions as well as Sino-American friction.

 

On Wednesday, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell to 8.5% YoY in July, below the 8.7% consensus and the 9.1% reading from June. According to Reuters, US President Joe Biden stated on Wednesday that there are some indications that inflation may be decreasing after the US released its inflation data. In the coming months, there may be more challenges for us to overcome, Biden continued. US President Biden continues, "We still have work to do, but we're on track."

 

Following the CPI report on Wednesday, traders of futures linked to the Fed's benchmark interest rate reduced their bets on a third consecutive 75-basis-point raise at its policy meeting on September 20-21 and now see a half-point increase as the most likely scenario, according to Reuters.

 

Neel Kashkari, president of the Minneapolis Fed, recently stated that the Fed is "far, far away from declaring success" on inflation. Additionally, the decision-maker stated that he hasn't "seen anything that changes" the need for the Fed to raise its policy rate to 3.9% by year's end and to 4.4% by the end of 2023. Charles Evans, president of the Chicago Fed, said in another place that a recession would likely require unfavorable circumstances to occur. Also labeling inflation "unacceptably" high, Fed's Evans

 

Additionally, according to sources cited by Reuters, US President Biden is reconsidering his China tariff policy in light of Taiwan's response, which put the XAU/USD bulls on the defensive.

 

S&P 500 Futures print modest gains near 4,220 by press time against this backdrop after Wall Street rose and US Treasury yields were largely unchanged the day prior.

 

Moving on, the monthly Producer Price Index (PPI) for July and the weekly US Jobless Claims numbers may amuse gold traders. However, in light of recent risk-negative headlines, special focus should be placed on the qualitative variables.

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