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US President Trump: We have taken over Venezuela’s oil – 65 billion barrels of oil.September 11 - A Reuters poll indicates that the impact of Middle East conflict on rising oil prices is being offset by government subsidies, and Japans core inflation rate is expected to remain stable in August. Japans national CPI is projected to rise 1.8% year-on-year in August, while core CPI is expected to remain flat compared to July, still below the Bank of Japans 2% inflation target. Ryohei Ikeda, an analyst at Mizuho Research Institute, stated that rising crude oil and naphtha prices are increasingly being passed on to consumer prices, especially for daily necessities, which will push up inflation. However, subsidies for electricity and gas bills will act as a factor in suppressing inflation. Japans Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications will release CPI data on Friday, September 18, and the Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision a few hours later.The main Shanghai gold futures contract fell more than 2.00% intraday, currently trading at 935.84 yuan/gram.US President Trump: If the Democrats come to power, they will destroy all that we have accomplished.On September 11th, ANZ Bank stated that the renewed escalation of the Middle East conflict and its impact on energy prices mean the market should be pricing in a 25 basis point rate hike by the European Central Bank (ECB) in December. This move would raise the deposit facility rate to 2.75%. The ECB may be inclined to gradually tighten policy. ANZ Bank noted that the market currently prices in approximately a 90% probability of an ECB rate hike in October.

Forecast for the price of gold: XAU/USD eases below the $1,804 barrier as Fed hawks back off due to weaker US inflation

Alina Haynes

Aug 11, 2022 11:58

 截屏2022-08-10 上午11.45.08_1024x576.png

 

US inflation-driven gains in the price of gold (XAU/USD) are fading as the metal declines to $1,790 on Thursday during the opening Tokyo session. The recent decline in the price of precious metals may be related to conflicting worries about the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) upcoming actions as well as Sino-American friction.

 

On Wednesday, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell to 8.5% YoY in July, below the 8.7% consensus and the 9.1% reading from June. According to Reuters, US President Joe Biden stated on Wednesday that there are some indications that inflation may be decreasing after the US released its inflation data. In the coming months, there may be more challenges for us to overcome, Biden continued. US President Biden continues, "We still have work to do, but we're on track."

 

Following the CPI report on Wednesday, traders of futures linked to the Fed's benchmark interest rate reduced their bets on a third consecutive 75-basis-point raise at its policy meeting on September 20-21 and now see a half-point increase as the most likely scenario, according to Reuters.

 

Neel Kashkari, president of the Minneapolis Fed, recently stated that the Fed is "far, far away from declaring success" on inflation. Additionally, the decision-maker stated that he hasn't "seen anything that changes" the need for the Fed to raise its policy rate to 3.9% by year's end and to 4.4% by the end of 2023. Charles Evans, president of the Chicago Fed, said in another place that a recession would likely require unfavorable circumstances to occur. Also labeling inflation "unacceptably" high, Fed's Evans

 

Additionally, according to sources cited by Reuters, US President Biden is reconsidering his China tariff policy in light of Taiwan's response, which put the XAU/USD bulls on the defensive.

 

S&P 500 Futures print modest gains near 4,220 by press time against this backdrop after Wall Street rose and US Treasury yields were largely unchanged the day prior.

 

Moving on, the monthly Producer Price Index (PPI) for July and the weekly US Jobless Claims numbers may amuse gold traders. However, in light of recent risk-negative headlines, special focus should be placed on the qualitative variables.

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