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On July 2nd, Futures News reported that the situation in the Middle East improved this period, with the US and Iran reaching a memorandum of understanding. Affected by this, crude oil prices remained weak, with the change rate deepening into negative territory. According to Zhuochuang Informations calculations, as of the close of trading on July 1st, the crude oil change rate for the 9th working day was -19.31%, with gasoline and diesel prices expected to decrease by 855 yuan/ton. With only one working day left before the price adjustment window, there is a high probability of a significant reduction in retail prices of refined oil products at 24:00 on July 3rd. This reduction would be the first "three consecutive drops" this year, with a significant cumulative decrease, further reducing fuel costs for consumers as the summer vacation begins.On July 2nd, Minister Li Lecheng of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology chaired a Party Group meeting on the afternoon of July 1st. The meeting emphasized the need to practice the people-centered development philosophy, follow the Partys mass line in the new era, formulate and implement the "15th Five-Year Plan" series for the industrial and information technology sectors, consolidate the steady and positive trend of the industrial economy, focus on improving the quality of the manufacturing supply system and the service level of the information and communication industry, earnestly address the urgent needs and concerns of the people, and strive to ensure that the people have a more substantial sense of gain, a more sustainable sense of happiness, and a stronger sense of security. The meeting stressed the importance of enhancing the ability to fight. It called for strengthening awareness of potential dangers, adhering to bottom-line thinking, carrying forward the spirit of struggle, shouldering heavy responsibilities, rising to challenges, and preventing and resolving risks and hidden dangers from all aspects. The meeting also emphasized strengthening the security protection of national critical information infrastructure, improving network and data security capabilities, and firmly safeguarding the bottom line of artificial intelligence security.July 2nd – The State Council Taiwan Affairs Office held a regular press conference this morning, hosted by spokesperson Zhu Fenglian. ETtoday reporter from Taiwans ETtoday asked: "Currently, the value and proportion of goods exported to the mainland under the ECFA are showing a downward trend. There are concerns that the remaining early harvest list items under the ECFA will continue or may be completely terminated. What is your comment on this?" Zhu Fenglian replied: "In June 2010, based on the political foundation of the 1992 Consensus, the two sides of the Taiwan Strait signed the Cross-Strait Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA). Over the years, we have earnestly fulfilled our commitments, promoting and guaranteeing the effectiveness and implementation of the ECFA, bringing tangible benefits to relevant enterprises and people on the island, especially small and medium-sized enterprises and farmers and fishermen. Before taking office, the DPP attacked the ECFA; after taking office, it seriously obstructed its implementation. Not only did it fail to take concrete measures to remove discriminatory trade restrictions against the mainland, but it also continuously and escalated its actions by revising rules and setting up obstacles, maliciously hindering and undermining normal cross-strait economic exchanges and cooperation, forcing relevant mainland departments to suspend tariff reductions on some ECFA products. The responsibility for this lies entirely with the DPP authorities."Türkiyes car sales rose 11.4% year-on-year in June, but fell 8.19% year-on-year in the first half of the year.On July 2nd, strategists at State Street Investment Management stated in a report that gold prices could reach $5,000 per ounce by early 2027, as the bull market cycle for gold remains sustainable. They believe that golds status as a currency hedge is likely to be supported by rising US government debt, while actual demand for gold remains strong. Global gold fund holdings (a portion of global mutual fund and exchange-traded fund assets) are currently still below State Streets target level of 3% to 10% for most portfolios. Furthermore, they added that the Federal Reserves hawkish shift should not change the structural trend of gold in the post-pandemic era. State Street expects the price of basic gold bars to rise to $4,750 to $5,500 per ounce within the next six to nine months.

Forecast for the price of gold: XAU/USD eases below the $1,804 barrier as Fed hawks back off due to weaker US inflation

Alina Haynes

Aug 11, 2022 11:58

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US inflation-driven gains in the price of gold (XAU/USD) are fading as the metal declines to $1,790 on Thursday during the opening Tokyo session. The recent decline in the price of precious metals may be related to conflicting worries about the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) upcoming actions as well as Sino-American friction.

 

On Wednesday, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell to 8.5% YoY in July, below the 8.7% consensus and the 9.1% reading from June. According to Reuters, US President Joe Biden stated on Wednesday that there are some indications that inflation may be decreasing after the US released its inflation data. In the coming months, there may be more challenges for us to overcome, Biden continued. US President Biden continues, "We still have work to do, but we're on track."

 

Following the CPI report on Wednesday, traders of futures linked to the Fed's benchmark interest rate reduced their bets on a third consecutive 75-basis-point raise at its policy meeting on September 20-21 and now see a half-point increase as the most likely scenario, according to Reuters.

 

Neel Kashkari, president of the Minneapolis Fed, recently stated that the Fed is "far, far away from declaring success" on inflation. Additionally, the decision-maker stated that he hasn't "seen anything that changes" the need for the Fed to raise its policy rate to 3.9% by year's end and to 4.4% by the end of 2023. Charles Evans, president of the Chicago Fed, said in another place that a recession would likely require unfavorable circumstances to occur. Also labeling inflation "unacceptably" high, Fed's Evans

 

Additionally, according to sources cited by Reuters, US President Biden is reconsidering his China tariff policy in light of Taiwan's response, which put the XAU/USD bulls on the defensive.

 

S&P 500 Futures print modest gains near 4,220 by press time against this backdrop after Wall Street rose and US Treasury yields were largely unchanged the day prior.

 

Moving on, the monthly Producer Price Index (PPI) for July and the weekly US Jobless Claims numbers may amuse gold traders. However, in light of recent risk-negative headlines, special focus should be placed on the qualitative variables.