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Market news: Members of the Union of European Football Associations (UEFA) have agreed to boycott the World Cup.On July 30th, it was reported that the Japanese government officially established the "National Intelligence Agency" on July 31st local time. The first director is Kazuya Hara. Hara previously served as the head of the Foreign Affairs Division and the Director-General of the Security Bureau of the National Police Agency, and has served as Cabinet Intelligence Officer since 2023. According to a bill previously passed by the Japanese Diet, Japan will build an intelligence system with the "National Intelligence Council" at its core and the "National Intelligence Agency" as its executive body, responsible for coordinating intelligence activities in areas such as security and counter-terrorism, as well as "foreign intelligence activities" involving foreign espionage. The "National Intelligence Agency" is also granted comprehensive coordination authority to request intelligence from various government ministries and agencies.On July 30, the Russian Federation government announced that, in order to stabilize the domestic fuel market, it has decided to extend the export ban on gasoline, diesel, marine fuel, and light diesel oil for another six months, from August 1, 2026 to January 31, 2027. Meanwhile, according to the new regulations, starting September 1, fuel production companies will be exempt from the ban on direct exports of diesel, marine fuel, and light diesel oil.Market news: Sources say that Russian oil exports through western ports in July are expected to fall by about 4% compared to June, as attacks in Ukraine reduced shipments to the Black Sea. 1. Agricultural consultancy Datagro projects Brazils 2026/27 soybean production at 185.6 million tons, up from 182.8 million tons in the previous year; the soybean planting area in Brazil for 2026/27 is expected to increase by 0.3% to 49.3 million hectares. 2. According to the Iranian news agency IRNA, citing Iranian lawmakers, Iran will never accept a US-style ceasefire and will continue to respond to aggressors. 3. Data released by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) shows that private exporters reported selling 132,000 tons of soybeans to China for delivery in 2026/2027. 4. An Indonesian Ministry of Trade regulation released Wednesday showing that Indonesia has lowered its August crude palm oil reference price to $996.52 per ton from $1,000.90 per ton in July. The new reference price will keep the export tax on crude palm oil unchanged next month at $148 per ton. Indonesia also levies a separate export tax of 12.5% on crude palm oil. 5. Data released by the U.S. government on Thursday showed that the U.S. PCE price index fell 0.1% month-on-month in June, the first monthly decline since the outbreak of the pandemic in 2020, further explaining why the Federal Reserve chose to keep interest rates unchanged this week. 6. Data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture showed that net soybean export sales for the 2025/2026 marketing year were 302,000 tons, higher than market expectations, compared to 56,000 tons the previous week; net soybean export sales for the 2026/2027 marketing year were 1,333,000 tons, higher than market expectations, compared to 1,537,000 tons the previous week. 7. This week, Mysteels Coal and Coke Division surveyed the profitability of independent coking plants across the country. The national average profit per ton of coke was -25 yuan/ton; the average profit for near-first-grade coke in Shanxi was -20 yuan/ton, in Shandong it was 12 yuan/ton, in Inner Mongolia it was -37 yuan/ton, and in Hebei it was 14 yuan/ton. 8. According to USDA agricultural drought monitoring data, as of July 28, 2026, the proportion of major U.S. crop-producing areas experiencing moderate to severe drought (D1+) is as follows: 26% of U.S. soybean-producing areas are experiencing drought, up 8 percentage points from 18% last week; and 5% at the same time last year, up 21 percentage points from the same period last year. 9. The Paraná State Rural Economic Institute (Deral) in Brazil projects Paranás 2025/26 soybean production at 21.8 million tons, almost unchanged from last months forecast. Paranás second-crop corn production is projected at 17.05 million tons, compared to 17.6 million tons last month. 10. According to SMM, on July 30, Yinman Mining received a "Decision on On-site Handling Measures" from the Xiwuqi Emergency Management Bureau, requiring the simultaneous shutdown of its tailings system. Given Yinman Minings relatively small copper production volume, the impact of this shutdown on the overall domestic copper concentrate supply is limited; the impact is expected to be mainly concentrated on tin and silver products. 11. On the evening of July 30, Beijing time, He Lifeng, the Chinese lead negotiator for China-US economic and trade relations and Vice Premier of the State Council, held a video call with the US lead negotiators, US Treasury Secretary Bessant and Trade Representative Greer. The two sides had a frank, in-depth and constructive exchange on implementing the important consensus reached at the Beijing meeting between the two heads of state, maintaining the stability of China-US economic and trade relations, expanding pragmatic cooperation, and properly addressing each others concerns in the next stage.

Forecast for the price of gold: XAU/USD eases below the $1,804 barrier as Fed hawks back off due to weaker US inflation

Alina Haynes

Aug 11, 2022 11:58

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US inflation-driven gains in the price of gold (XAU/USD) are fading as the metal declines to $1,790 on Thursday during the opening Tokyo session. The recent decline in the price of precious metals may be related to conflicting worries about the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) upcoming actions as well as Sino-American friction.

 

On Wednesday, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell to 8.5% YoY in July, below the 8.7% consensus and the 9.1% reading from June. According to Reuters, US President Joe Biden stated on Wednesday that there are some indications that inflation may be decreasing after the US released its inflation data. In the coming months, there may be more challenges for us to overcome, Biden continued. US President Biden continues, "We still have work to do, but we're on track."

 

Following the CPI report on Wednesday, traders of futures linked to the Fed's benchmark interest rate reduced their bets on a third consecutive 75-basis-point raise at its policy meeting on September 20-21 and now see a half-point increase as the most likely scenario, according to Reuters.

 

Neel Kashkari, president of the Minneapolis Fed, recently stated that the Fed is "far, far away from declaring success" on inflation. Additionally, the decision-maker stated that he hasn't "seen anything that changes" the need for the Fed to raise its policy rate to 3.9% by year's end and to 4.4% by the end of 2023. Charles Evans, president of the Chicago Fed, said in another place that a recession would likely require unfavorable circumstances to occur. Also labeling inflation "unacceptably" high, Fed's Evans

 

Additionally, according to sources cited by Reuters, US President Biden is reconsidering his China tariff policy in light of Taiwan's response, which put the XAU/USD bulls on the defensive.

 

S&P 500 Futures print modest gains near 4,220 by press time against this backdrop after Wall Street rose and US Treasury yields were largely unchanged the day prior.

 

Moving on, the monthly Producer Price Index (PPI) for July and the weekly US Jobless Claims numbers may amuse gold traders. However, in light of recent risk-negative headlines, special focus should be placed on the qualitative variables.