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May 31 - A Bloomberg survey of economists median forecast indicates that the U.S. unemployment rate will remain unchanged at 4.3% in May, while nonfarm payrolls will increase by 89,000. This increase would push the three-month average job growth rate to its highest level in over a year, sparking discussions about a continued acceleration in hiring. Forecasters expect the healthcare sector to maintain its strong momentum, while cyclical sectors such as construction, leisure, and hospitality will also see a recovery, with demand in these sectors likely benefiting from the warm weather of the past month. Manufacturing employment may also be boosted as consumers stockpile goods in anticipation of potential price increases following a potential conflict with Iran.On May 31, according to Iranian state television, Saeed Ajorlou, a member of Irans Media Committee, stated on Saturday that Tehran had not yet approved the final draft of the proposed agreement with the United States, and warned that Iran might withdraw from the agreement if the US failed to fulfill its commitments. In an interview, Ajorlou said that to his knowledge, as of Friday evening, the final text had not been approved, but the differences between the two sides were minimal. He stated, "If the final text is approved, we will enter a 60-day phase of detailed consultations," adding that each of the 14 articles of the agreement contains annexes that require further negotiation. Ajorlou emphasized that the implementation mechanism is more important than the text itself, especially regarding the acquisition of Iranian assets and the fulfillment of commitments by the other side. He stated that the proposed agreement includes a clause allowing Iran to withdraw from the agreement if the other side fails to fulfill its commitments. He indicated that Iran could withdraw from the agreement if violations occur, including breaches of the ceasefire agreement, failure to grant access to Iranian funds, or failure to lift the naval blockade. He added that if commitments are not fulfilled in the initial phase, Iran will reconsider its participation in the proposed 60-day negotiations.The Indian government stated that the current consumption tax rates for gasoline and diesel consumed domestically will remain unchanged.On May 31, local time, Ibrahim Rezaei, spokesman for the Iranian Parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, said on May 30 that the naval blockade against Iran “will eventually end, whether through negotiations or military action.”According to the Financial Times, SoftBank has pledged €75 billion to build Europe’s largest artificial intelligence facility in France.

Forecast for the price of gold: XAU/USD eases below the $1,804 barrier as Fed hawks back off due to weaker US inflation

Alina Haynes

Aug 11, 2022 11:58

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US inflation-driven gains in the price of gold (XAU/USD) are fading as the metal declines to $1,790 on Thursday during the opening Tokyo session. The recent decline in the price of precious metals may be related to conflicting worries about the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) upcoming actions as well as Sino-American friction.

 

On Wednesday, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell to 8.5% YoY in July, below the 8.7% consensus and the 9.1% reading from June. According to Reuters, US President Joe Biden stated on Wednesday that there are some indications that inflation may be decreasing after the US released its inflation data. In the coming months, there may be more challenges for us to overcome, Biden continued. US President Biden continues, "We still have work to do, but we're on track."

 

Following the CPI report on Wednesday, traders of futures linked to the Fed's benchmark interest rate reduced their bets on a third consecutive 75-basis-point raise at its policy meeting on September 20-21 and now see a half-point increase as the most likely scenario, according to Reuters.

 

Neel Kashkari, president of the Minneapolis Fed, recently stated that the Fed is "far, far away from declaring success" on inflation. Additionally, the decision-maker stated that he hasn't "seen anything that changes" the need for the Fed to raise its policy rate to 3.9% by year's end and to 4.4% by the end of 2023. Charles Evans, president of the Chicago Fed, said in another place that a recession would likely require unfavorable circumstances to occur. Also labeling inflation "unacceptably" high, Fed's Evans

 

Additionally, according to sources cited by Reuters, US President Biden is reconsidering his China tariff policy in light of Taiwan's response, which put the XAU/USD bulls on the defensive.

 

S&P 500 Futures print modest gains near 4,220 by press time against this backdrop after Wall Street rose and US Treasury yields were largely unchanged the day prior.

 

Moving on, the monthly Producer Price Index (PPI) for July and the weekly US Jobless Claims numbers may amuse gold traders. However, in light of recent risk-negative headlines, special focus should be placed on the qualitative variables.

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