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Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Green: Upside risks to inflation are the most important.April 14th - The Middle East war has driven up oil prices and demand for Russian oil, and Russias oil tax profits are expected to increase further. Data from Argus, an independent international energy and commodity price assessment agency, shows that in the first 13 days of April, the average price of Urals crude oil, Russias main export, at western ports reached $106.3 per barrel, a 42% increase compared to March. Russian oil taxes are calculated with a one-month lag in Urals crude prices, so the impact of the March price increase will be reflected starting this month. In local currency terms, the average Urals price in March had already soared to 6,191 rubles; if the average price and exchange rate remain at current levels in April, it will further rise to approximately 8,300 rubles this month, the highest since March 2022. Finam economist Berenkaya stated that for every $1 increase in the annual average Urals price, Russian oil and gas tax revenue increases by approximately 150 billion rubles (about $2 billion). In April alone, the industrys revenue may reach 900-950 billion rubles, higher than the 617 billion rubles in March.Federal Reserves Goolsby: Concerns about how long the war with Iran will last.Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Green: Businesses tell me they have no pricing power.European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde: Finding a solution to the Iranian issue is in the interest of all parties.

Forecast for the price of gold: XAU/USD eases below the $1,804 barrier as Fed hawks back off due to weaker US inflation

Alina Haynes

Aug 11, 2022 11:58

 截屏2022-08-10 上午11.45.08_1024x576.png

 

US inflation-driven gains in the price of gold (XAU/USD) are fading as the metal declines to $1,790 on Thursday during the opening Tokyo session. The recent decline in the price of precious metals may be related to conflicting worries about the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) upcoming actions as well as Sino-American friction.

 

On Wednesday, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell to 8.5% YoY in July, below the 8.7% consensus and the 9.1% reading from June. According to Reuters, US President Joe Biden stated on Wednesday that there are some indications that inflation may be decreasing after the US released its inflation data. In the coming months, there may be more challenges for us to overcome, Biden continued. US President Biden continues, "We still have work to do, but we're on track."

 

Following the CPI report on Wednesday, traders of futures linked to the Fed's benchmark interest rate reduced their bets on a third consecutive 75-basis-point raise at its policy meeting on September 20-21 and now see a half-point increase as the most likely scenario, according to Reuters.

 

Neel Kashkari, president of the Minneapolis Fed, recently stated that the Fed is "far, far away from declaring success" on inflation. Additionally, the decision-maker stated that he hasn't "seen anything that changes" the need for the Fed to raise its policy rate to 3.9% by year's end and to 4.4% by the end of 2023. Charles Evans, president of the Chicago Fed, said in another place that a recession would likely require unfavorable circumstances to occur. Also labeling inflation "unacceptably" high, Fed's Evans

 

Additionally, according to sources cited by Reuters, US President Biden is reconsidering his China tariff policy in light of Taiwan's response, which put the XAU/USD bulls on the defensive.

 

S&P 500 Futures print modest gains near 4,220 by press time against this backdrop after Wall Street rose and US Treasury yields were largely unchanged the day prior.

 

Moving on, the monthly Producer Price Index (PPI) for July and the weekly US Jobless Claims numbers may amuse gold traders. However, in light of recent risk-negative headlines, special focus should be placed on the qualitative variables.

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