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On May 5th, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised its benchmark interest rate for the third consecutive time, highlighting its determination to curb stubborn high inflation and solidifying its position as the "lone wolf" among major central banks globally. The RBA voted 8-1 to raise the cash rate from 4.1% to 4.35%, completely reversing the monetary easing cycle of last year. In a statement, the bank said that after three rate hikes, monetary policy is well-prepared to respond to changing circumstances, and the committee is focused on achieving its mandate of price stability and full employment, and will take all necessary actions to achieve this goal. Currently, most economists expect the RBA to remain on hold for an extended period, but a minority believe there will be at least one more rate hike, a view shared by the money market. With three consecutive rate hikes, the RBA committee is also signaling that it prioritizes its 2% to 3% inflation target over all other considerations. This aggressive stance puts further pressure on the Australian government. With one week to go before the annual budget is released, it is expected to address war-related energy price increases and provide temporary cost-of-living relief for households.The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) stated that the committee will focus on data and evolving outlook and risk assessments to guide its decision-making.Reserve Bank of Australia: Higher fuel prices are exacerbating inflation, and there are signs that this could have a broader secondary impact on the prices of goods and services.The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) stated that the Middle East conflict has led to a sharp rise in fuel and related commodity prices, further exacerbating inflationary pressures.Reserve Bank of Australia: There are early signs that many businesses facing cost pressures are beginning to seek to raise prices for their goods and services.

Forecast for the price of gold: XAU/USD eases below the $1,804 barrier as Fed hawks back off due to weaker US inflation

Alina Haynes

Aug 11, 2022 11:58

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US inflation-driven gains in the price of gold (XAU/USD) are fading as the metal declines to $1,790 on Thursday during the opening Tokyo session. The recent decline in the price of precious metals may be related to conflicting worries about the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) upcoming actions as well as Sino-American friction.

 

On Wednesday, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell to 8.5% YoY in July, below the 8.7% consensus and the 9.1% reading from June. According to Reuters, US President Joe Biden stated on Wednesday that there are some indications that inflation may be decreasing after the US released its inflation data. In the coming months, there may be more challenges for us to overcome, Biden continued. US President Biden continues, "We still have work to do, but we're on track."

 

Following the CPI report on Wednesday, traders of futures linked to the Fed's benchmark interest rate reduced their bets on a third consecutive 75-basis-point raise at its policy meeting on September 20-21 and now see a half-point increase as the most likely scenario, according to Reuters.

 

Neel Kashkari, president of the Minneapolis Fed, recently stated that the Fed is "far, far away from declaring success" on inflation. Additionally, the decision-maker stated that he hasn't "seen anything that changes" the need for the Fed to raise its policy rate to 3.9% by year's end and to 4.4% by the end of 2023. Charles Evans, president of the Chicago Fed, said in another place that a recession would likely require unfavorable circumstances to occur. Also labeling inflation "unacceptably" high, Fed's Evans

 

Additionally, according to sources cited by Reuters, US President Biden is reconsidering his China tariff policy in light of Taiwan's response, which put the XAU/USD bulls on the defensive.

 

S&P 500 Futures print modest gains near 4,220 by press time against this backdrop after Wall Street rose and US Treasury yields were largely unchanged the day prior.

 

Moving on, the monthly Producer Price Index (PPI) for July and the weekly US Jobless Claims numbers may amuse gold traders. However, in light of recent risk-negative headlines, special focus should be placed on the qualitative variables.

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