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On March 22, the Iranian military stated that several hours earlier, an enemy F-15 fighter jet was intercepted and struck by Iranian air defense forces surface-to-air missiles in airspace near the southern coast of Iran and the island of Hormuz. An investigation into the incident is underway.British Cabinet Minister Reid: There is currently no assessment to confirm that Iran plans to attack the European capital or has the capability to do so.RIA Novosti: Russian troops have taken control of Potapivka in eastern Ukraine.On March 22, Kirill Dmitriev, Russias Special Representative for Foreign Investment and Economic Cooperation, stated on social media that the EU and the UK will face a fuel crisis within two to three weeks and will be forced to implement rationing to regulate supply. "According to predictions, fuel rationing in the UK and the EU is imminent. The crisis will become clear within two to three weeks," Dmitriev wrote on the X platform on the 21st. "The reality is harsh." He also posted a photo of European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Maria Kalas, among others. "Remember these people when youre at a gas station," he wrote.March 22nd - For investors eager to "buy the dip," institutions generally offered cautious advice. "Technical analysis indicates that gold prices have clearly broken through the key support level of the 60-day moving average, meaning further downside potential may be unlocked," one trader advised. Given that negative factors such as the Feds monetary policy and the dollars performance are still unfolding, the short-term downtrend is not yet over, and ordinary investors should not blindly try to catch a falling knife. They should wait for gold prices to consolidate and stabilize within the $4400-$4600/ounce range before gradually accumulating positions for medium- to long-term holding.

Forecast for the price of gold: Pre-NFP trade slowdown around $1,790 according to XAU/USD

Alina Haynes

Aug 05, 2022 15:08

 截屏2022-08-04 下午5.25.46_1024x576.png

 

As traders exhibit the normal concern ahead of the important US employment data on Friday, the price of gold (XAU/USD) seesaws near the monthly peak. Despite this, the price of yellow metal fluctuates between $1,788 and $1,791 as of the morning of the press in Europe.

 

The market's conflicting fears about the global recession and the most recent geopolitical stories affecting Taiwan, in addition to the pre-NFP caution, further contribute to the XAU/USD's movement. It's important to note that the options market sends conflicting signals and presents difficulties for gold purchasers.

 

The recent increase in US Treasury rates has helped to strengthen the US currency and put downward pressure on the price of gold, but it also seems to have lessened concerns about a global economic downturn.

 

The US Dollar Index (DXY) reverses a two-day slump and registers modest gains at 106.00. The dollar index declined during the previous two days before consolidating recent losses by monitoring the yields. It's important to note that after falling during the previous two days, the US 10-year Treasury rates have stabilized at roughly 2.069 percent. The disparity between the coupons for 10-year and 2-year bonds is still the largest it has been since 2000, yet US Treasury rates have continued to show the possibility of a recession.

 

Geopolitical issues from the Taiwan Strait are also a problem for gold purchasers elsewhere, as China expresses its displeasure with Nancy Pelosi, the speaker of the US House of Representatives, visiting Taipei. According to West Official, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken recently stated at an East Asia meeting that China's response to US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan had been "flagrantly aggressive."

 

In terms of the options market's attitude, a one-month risk reversal (RR) of gold prices ends a three-week downturn when seen weekly, but if observed daily, it causes a third straight day of decline. It should be mentioned that the risk reversal term refers to the spread between bullish and bearish bets, namely the call options and put options (RR).

 

In conclusion, gold prices are still stable, but the bad news outweighs the good news, therefore today's US employment data for July will be important for the short-term outlook. The US dollar's recovery may continue and impact on gold prices if the employment numbers look to be higher than expected.


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