• English
  • 简体中文
  • 繁體中文
  • Tiếng Việt
  • ไทย
  • Indonesia
Subscribe
Real-time News
UK Business Secretary: We will not rethink our fiscal rules because of US tariffs.German Finance Minister: Despite the US announcement of tariffs, negotiations are still ongoing and no one has closed the door to trade negotiations with the US.Switzerlands March CPI monthly rate will be released in ten minutes.Comprehensive tariffs and reciprocal tariffs 1. Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moodys: On a static basis, new tariff revenues account for nearly 2% of GDP (not considering the impact of tariffs on the economy and taxes), which makes this round of tax increases the largest since the tax increases used to finance the war during World War II. 2. JPMorgan Chase report: If these tariffs are fully implemented, the actual tariff rate in the United States may rise to 25%. This will affect about $3.3 trillion worth of imported goods. This years cumulative tariff increase should be regarded as a tax increase of about $660 billion, accounting for 2.2% of GDP, making it one of the largest tax increases in modern history. 3. Capital Economics: Trumps tariffs could generate up to $700 billion (or 2.3% of GDP) in revenue each year, the average import-weighted tariff rate will jump to 19.1%, and the effective tariff rate will rise from 2.3% to around 26%, reaching the highest level in 131 years. 4. CICC: If these tariffs are fully implemented, the effective tariff rate of the United States may rise sharply by 22.7 percentage points from 2.4% in 2024 to 25.1%, which will exceed the tariff level after the implementation of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act in 1930. Tariffs may push up US PCE inflation by 1.9 percentage points and reduce real GDP growth by 1.3 percentage points, although it may also bring in more than $700 billion in fiscal revenue. 5. White House assistant Peter Navarro: Trumps tariffs may increase fiscal revenue by three times the scale of the World War II tax increase in 1942, which may become the largest tax increase in US history. 6. Trump himself said that some of the tariffs imposed this week could help the government raise more than $1 trillion in funds over the next year or so, help reduce the national debt, and may even offset some income taxes. Auto tariffs 1. White House Secretary Will Schaaf estimated that Trumps 25% tariff on cars and auto parts imported into the United States could increase "about $100 billion in new revenue." 2. Trump himself said that in a relatively short period of time, that is, one year from now, between $600 billion and $1 trillion would be raised. 3. The Yale Budget Lab, a think tank, estimates that auto tariffs could raise revenues of about $600 billion to $650 billion over 10 years, rather than in one year as Trump said, averaging $60 billion to $65 billion on an annual basis.UK Business Secretary: We have safeguards in place to ensure we are not overwhelmed by unwanted goods.

Forecast for the Gold Price: XAU/USD moves up above $1,850 as yields fall following FOMC minutes

Daniel Rogers

Jan 05, 2023 15:01

 48.png

 

In the late New York session, the gold price (XAU/USD) has attracted buying activity following a corrective move to approach the critical support of $1,850. After failing to sustain above $1,860.00, the precious metal declined; however, the corrective move is light and does not indicate a serious reversal.

 

After a decline in the U.S. Manufacturing PMI bolstered indications of further deceleration in the U.S. Consumer Price Index, market participants' demand for risk-perceived assets such as the S&P 500 increased (CPI). In response to a decrease in product demand, corporations may be compelled to reduce the price of factory items.

 

The US Dollar Index (DXY) fell below the 104.00 level as yields on 10-year US Treasuries were subjected to intense pressure and plummeted to roughly 3.69 percent. Safe-haven assets are under pressure due to the anticipation of a further fall in inflationary pressures. After remaining aggressive throughout the entire year, Federal Reserve (Fed) head Jerome Powell changed to a slowing scenario in December regarding an interest rate hike. Undoubtedly, the inflation rate is still a significant distance from the 2% target; yet, the presence of factors that support a further deceleration in the price index weighs on safe-haven assets.