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On February 27, SenseTime (00020.HK) Technology announced that the number of direct individual registered users of the SenseTime Little Raccoon Family has exceeded 1 million, serving more than 300 corporate users. The final number of individual users has reached 15 million, and the daily token number has reached over 10 billion.On February 27, JPMorgan Chase released a research report stating that Ctrip Group (09961.HK)s net income in the fourth quarter increased by 23% year-on-year to 12.74 billion yuan, better than expected, and adjusted operating profit reached 2.76 billion yuan, better than expected, and adjusted earnings per share reached 4.35 yuan, better than expected. The bank expects that due to the increase in user growth in international OTA business, trip.com, etc., the sales and marketing ratio will increase and the profit margin outlook will decline, so its stock price is expected to react negatively to the fourth quarter results. The bank believes that given the strong return rate of 91% in 2024, the lack of short-term benefits brought by the adoption of GenAI and the weak profit margin outlook, investors may sell stocks to make profits after the results are announced. The bank lowered the companys earnings per share forecast for this year and next year by 4% each, and lowered its target price from HK$600 to HK$580, maintaining its overweight rating.Ukraines top commander: working together with brigades fighting to defend Ukraines Donetsk region as Russias offensive intensifies.The main contract of the Container Shipping Index (European line) narrowed its decline to 2.33% and is now reported at 1,788 points, having previously fallen by more than 6%.Futures news on February 27: 1. The trading volume of WTI crude oil futures was 706,606 lots, an increase of 44,190 lots from the previous trading day. The open interest was 1,778,090 lots, an increase of 9,291 lots from the previous trading day. 2. The trading volume of Brent crude oil futures was 143,068 lots, an increase of 21,456 lots from the previous trading day. The open interest was 175,710 lots, a decrease of 2,420 lots from the previous trading day. 3. The trading volume of natural gas futures was 551,821 lots, a decrease of 83,256 lots from the previous trading day. The open interest was 1,597,232 lots, an increase of 1,453 lots from the previous trading day.

Forecast for the Gold Price: XAU/USD bulls require confirmation from $1,902 and US inflation projections

Daniel Rogers

Jan 13, 2023 14:48

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Gold price (XAU/USD) is stable at $1,900 as bulls take a breather near the eight-month high early Friday morning, following the US inflation-inspired advance. In doing so, gold also reflects the market's skepticism ahead of additional data on US inflation conditions and consumer morale. In addition, recent concerns regarding US-China relations present additional obstacles for XAU/USD buyers.

 

According to anonymous sources cited by Reuters, the White House will discuss the recent ban on exports of chip-making gear to China during planned trips with Japanese and Dutch officials. The story also mentions that the White House Officials will not result in "immediate" commitments from China and Russia to implement comparable restrictions. The news renews the geopolitical conflict between the United States and China and supports the price of gold.

 

In a similar vein, the atmosphere before to China's trade data for December and the initial readings of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) for January will be crucial for short-term direction. In addition, the US 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectations will be crucial.

 

Even though Wall Street closed with gains, S&P 500 Futures remain hesitant and 10-year US Treasury rates lick their wounds near 3.46 percent as of press time.

 

On Thursday, the US CPI matched predictions for December at 6.5% YoY, compared to 7.1% before. Moreover, CPI excluding food and energy confirmed the market consensus of 5.7% YoY, compared to previous readings of 6.0%. Notable is the fact that the CPI MoM marked its first negative result since June 2020 with a -0.1% figure for the specified month, compared to the 0.0% anticipated and 0.1% prior figure.

 

Following the release of the US CPI, the Fed Fund Futures pegged to the policy rate implied a nearly 100 percent possibility of a 0.25 basis point (bps) Fed rate hike in February, but the odds favoring a 50 basis point (bps) rate hike in the same month fell to 8.0%.

 

Patrick Harker, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, was the first to signal easy rate hikes after the US CPI, which weighed on the US Dollar. Thomas Barkin, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, stated in the same vein that it "makes sense" for the Fed to steer more cautiously in its efforts to reduce inflation. However, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, James Bullard, stated that the most likely scenario is for inflation to remain above 2%, therefore the policy rate will need to be elevated for a longer period of time.

 

In the future, expected growth in China's trade reports for December should benefit gold purchasers, while expected improvement in US consumer confidence measures could test the XAU/upward USD's potential. Notably, the US 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectations will be essential to monitor.


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