EUR/USD 1.13587
-0.267%
Gold 3304.73
-1.311%
Oil 62.946
0.567%
USD/JPY 143.646
0.705%
GBP/USD 1.33184
-0.168%
GBP/JPY 191.311
0.579%
Browse More
  • English
  • 简体中文
  • 繁體中文
  • Tiếng Việt
  • ไทย
  • Indonesia
Subscribe
Real-time News
On April 26, according to the Wall Street Journal, in order to simplify the negotiations on reciprocal tariffs, US negotiating officials plan to use a new framework developed by the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR), which lists major categories of negotiations, such as tariffs and quotas, non-tariff trade barriers, digital trade, product origin principles, economic security and other commercial issues. In these categories, US officials will put forward specific requirements for individual countries, but people familiar with the matter emphasized that this document may also be adjusted at any time. People familiar with the matter said that the United States initial plan is to negotiate with 18 major trading partners in turn over the next two months. The initial plan is to alternately participate in the talks with six countries per week for three weeks (six countries in the first week, another six countries in the second week, and another six countries in the third week) until the deadline of July 8. If US President Trump does not extend the 90-day suspension period he set by then, those countries that cannot reach an agreement will begin to face reciprocal tariffs.On April 26, after the United States announced additional tariffs on goods from many countries, Peruvian business people expressed concerns that the US governments extreme measures would disrupt the global trade order and may even trigger a global economic recession. Alvaro Barrenechea Chavez, vice president of the Peruvian-Chinese Chamber of Commerce, said that the negative impact of the US tariff policy has begun to emerge and hoped that the US government would rethink. Recognizing the importance of countries working together to promote development, I think this is the best way to become a true "world citizen."Market news: Musks xAI company plans to raise about US$20 billion in a financing round.Conflict situation: 1. Ukrainian top commander: Russia tried to use air strikes as a cover to increase ground attacks, but was repelled by Ukraine. 2. Ukrainian Air Force: Russia launched more than 103 drones in the night attack on Ukraine. 3. Local officials said Ukraine launched an attack in the Belgorod region of Russia, killing two people. 4. The local governor said that Russia launched an attack on the Dnipropetrovsk region of Ukraine, killing one person and injuring eight people. Peace talks: 1. Trump: ① The situation between Russia and Ukraine is gradually becoming clear, and they are "very close" to reaching an agreement. ② Ukraine is unlikely to join NATO. ③ Ukraine has not yet signed the rare earth agreement and hopes that the agreement can be signed immediately. ④ It is foreseeable that the United States will conduct commercial cooperation with Ukraine and Russia after reaching an agreement. 2. Russian Foreign Minister: Russia is "ready to reach an agreement on Ukraine." 3. Russian Presidential Assistant Ushakov: Russia and the United States will continue to maintain active dialogue. 4. Russian Presidential Assistant: Putin discussed the possibility of resuming direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine with the US envoy. 5. The differences between the United States, Europe and Ukraine are clear. The documents show that European countries and Ukraine have raised objections to some of the US proposals to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict. 6. Market news: As part of the peace agreement, the United States asked Russian President Putin to abandon the demilitarization requirement. Other situations: 1. President of Hungarys OTP Bank: We hope to return to all business areas in Russia after the (Russia-Ukraine) conflict ends. 2. Ukrainian President Zelensky: US ground forces are not necessary for Ukraine. 3. Trump said Crimea will remain in Russia, Zelensky: Never recognize it. Agreeing with Trumps view, Crimea cannot be recovered by force. 4. NATO Secretary-General Rutte met with Trump and senior US officials to discuss defense spending, NATO summit, and the Ukrainian conflict.Rising global trade risks, overall policy uncertainty and the sustainability of U.S. debt top the list of potential risks to the U.S. financial system, according to the Federal Reserves latest financial stability report released on Friday. This is the first time the Fed has conducted a semi-annual survey on financial risks since Trump returned to the White House. 73% of respondents said that global trade risks are their biggest concern, more than double the proportion reported in November. Half of the respondents believe that overall policy uncertainty is the most worrying issue, an increase from the same period last year. The survey also found that issues related to recent market turmoil have received more attention, with 27% of respondents worried about the functioning of the U.S. Treasury market, up from 17% last fall. Foreign withdrawals from U.S. assets and the value of the dollar have also risen on the list of concerns.

Forecast for the Gold Price: XAU/USD bulls require confirmation from $1,902 and US inflation projections

Daniel Rogers

Jan 13, 2023 14:48

 255.png

 

Gold price (XAU/USD) is stable at $1,900 as bulls take a breather near the eight-month high early Friday morning, following the US inflation-inspired advance. In doing so, gold also reflects the market's skepticism ahead of additional data on US inflation conditions and consumer morale. In addition, recent concerns regarding US-China relations present additional obstacles for XAU/USD buyers.

 

According to anonymous sources cited by Reuters, the White House will discuss the recent ban on exports of chip-making gear to China during planned trips with Japanese and Dutch officials. The story also mentions that the White House Officials will not result in "immediate" commitments from China and Russia to implement comparable restrictions. The news renews the geopolitical conflict between the United States and China and supports the price of gold.

 

In a similar vein, the atmosphere before to China's trade data for December and the initial readings of the US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) for January will be crucial for short-term direction. In addition, the US 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectations will be crucial.

 

Even though Wall Street closed with gains, S&P 500 Futures remain hesitant and 10-year US Treasury rates lick their wounds near 3.46 percent as of press time.

 

On Thursday, the US CPI matched predictions for December at 6.5% YoY, compared to 7.1% before. Moreover, CPI excluding food and energy confirmed the market consensus of 5.7% YoY, compared to previous readings of 6.0%. Notable is the fact that the CPI MoM marked its first negative result since June 2020 with a -0.1% figure for the specified month, compared to the 0.0% anticipated and 0.1% prior figure.

 

Following the release of the US CPI, the Fed Fund Futures pegged to the policy rate implied a nearly 100 percent possibility of a 0.25 basis point (bps) Fed rate hike in February, but the odds favoring a 50 basis point (bps) rate hike in the same month fell to 8.0%.

 

Patrick Harker, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, was the first to signal easy rate hikes after the US CPI, which weighed on the US Dollar. Thomas Barkin, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, stated in the same vein that it "makes sense" for the Fed to steer more cautiously in its efforts to reduce inflation. However, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, James Bullard, stated that the most likely scenario is for inflation to remain above 2%, therefore the policy rate will need to be elevated for a longer period of time.

 

In the future, expected growth in China's trade reports for December should benefit gold purchasers, while expected improvement in US consumer confidence measures could test the XAU/upward USD's potential. Notably, the US 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectations will be essential to monitor.


Suggestion