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On March 20th, Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated that if oil prices remain high for several months, they could eventually trigger inflation. Investinglive analysts pointed out that Waller, who had previously favored lowering interest rates, has changed his stance amid renewed inflation concerns triggered by the recent surge in oil prices. Waller believes the risks posed by rising energy costs are more widespread than price increases due to tariffs, as oil is a crucial component of many goods and services in the economy. In contrast, he believes tariffs are more likely to trigger a one-off price adjustment than sustained inflation. He also noted that tariff-related price pressures are currently milder than expected. However, he cautioned that if these price pressures do not ease by mid-year, they could evolve into a more persistent inflation problem. Currently, inflation expectations remain stable, and the base case view still leans towards easing price pressures, but Wallers shift highlights a growing sensitivity to energy-driven risks and reflects a more cautious wait-and-see attitude.On March 20th, Federal Reserve Governor Bowman (a dovish official) stated in an interview with Fox Business News that it is too early to assess the impact of the Iran war, and she expects strong economic growth this year thanks to government supply-side spending. Bowman said she hasnt heard of companies laying off workers, but she remains concerned about the job market. She also indicated she still expects three interest rate cuts this year. Regarding banking regulation, Bowman wants to ensure that the current banking regulatory reforms fully consider the needs of banks and will continue to adjust regulations according to the characteristics of banks. Bowman is closely monitoring the private lending sector and also paying attention to leverage in the field of artificial intelligence, ensuring that regulators are aware of the associated risks. Bowman stated that she looks forward to working with Kevin Warsh, and that if his appointment is approved, it will have a significant impact on the Federal Reserve. Regarding Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, Bowman said that Powell has clearly stated his terms of office at the Federal Reserve, and she will allow Powell to explain the relevant details himself.Federal Reserve Governor Waller: If there are losses in private lending, it is the responsibility of some corporations and wealthy individuals.Federal Reserve Governor Waller: Balance sheet reduction could be discussed if reserve demand declines.Federal Reserve Governor Waller: There is no reason for the Fed to create a reserve shortage.

Forecast for Silver Price: XAG/USD is rising quickly and is approaching the $20.00 mark

Alina Haynes

Sep 15, 2022 11:43

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Silver price recovers around the 50-day exponential moving average and advances towards a daily high of $19.69 on Wednesday after the US Labor Department reported that August PPI was in line with predictions of diminishing inflationary pressures on the producer side. Therefore, the XAG/USD is trading at $19.61, 1.86% higher than its initial price.

 

Before Wall Street opened, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) of the United States reported that the Producer Price Index (PPI) for August decreased by 0.1%, in line with expectations, while the year-over-year figure fell to 8.7%, less than the 9.8% reported in July. Meanwhile, the so-called core PPI, which excludes volatile goods, increased by 0.4% month-over-month and 7.3% year.

 

In the meantime, the US Dollar Index, a measure of the dollar's value against a basket of six currencies, ended Wednesday's session down 0.15 percent, at 109.648, weighed down by US Treasury yields, particularly the 10-year benchmark note rate, which remained unchanged throughout the day at approximately 3.404%.

 

The US Dollar Index reflects the aforementioned by declining by 0.09% and falling below the 110.000 barrier. Similarly, the US 10-year benchmark note rate exhibits signs of weariness, remaining flat at approximately 3.414%.

 

The fact that US 10-year TIPS yields, a proxy for actual yields, rose by only one basis point to 0.939% was a further factor supporting the white metal price.

 

On Thursday, the US economic calendar will contain jobless claims, retail sales, and the New York and Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Indices, which will serve as a precursor to the ISM report in October.

 

The daily XAG/USD chart depicts the white metal as neutral to bearishly biased. Nonetheless, if silver buyers recapture the $20,000 threshold, this might pave the way for a test of a four-month-old downslope trendline near $20.20 prior to reaching the 100-day EMA at $20.39. A breach of the latter will reveal the cycle high from August 15 at $20.87, ahead of the psychological milestone of $21.00.