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Forecast for Gold Price: XAU/USD surpasses $1,650 on falling wedge breakthrough; US PCE inflation observed

Daniel Rogers

Sep 30, 2022 10:46

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Gold price (XAU/USD) is anticipating its first weekly increase in three weeks as metal investors push $1,663 following the confirmation of the falling wedge bullish chart pattern the day before. In doing so, gold celebrates a weaker U.S. dollar but disregards the market's dismal conditions.

 

Consequently, the US Dollar Index (DXY) recorded another negative day, reestablishing the weekly low around 111.95. After the latest readings of the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the second quarter confirmed the early projections of -0.6%, the greenback fell against the six major currencies.

 

It should be noted that the firmer printing of the US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, which fell to 193K for the week ending September 24 compared to 209K before (updated from 213K) and the market's forecast of 215K, may have also weighed on the DXY. The US Initial Claims for Unemployment fell to their lowest level since April.

 

While respecting the data, St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard praised the decline in weekly Initial Jobless Claims and stated, "We will push inflation to 2% in a reasonable compact time frame." Elsewhere, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester stated on Thursday that they are not yet in a position to consider stopping interest rate hikes.

 

In addition to the Fed's aggressive rhetoric, anxieties originating from the United Kingdom, Russia, and China also test sentiment and the XAU/USD bulls, but they were unable to halt the price decline.

 

It's hard to avoid the conclusion that fiscal easing announced will prompt a significant and necessary monetary policy response in November," said Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill. On the other hand, record high German inflation, Russia's willingness to annex more parts of Ukraine, and the chatter over China's inability to tame its recession woes were also challenging the risk appetite.

 

As a result of these bets, Wall Street benchmarks reversed all Wednesday gains, while Treasury yields recovered.

 

Traders will pay special attention to the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, namely the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for September, which is anticipated to increase 4.7% year-over-year compared to the prior reading of 4.4%. If the actual outcome is stronger than anticipated, the XAU/USD exchange rate may struggle to rise.

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