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On August 21, Nomura issued a research report stating that Kuaishous (01024.HK) second-quarter results met expectations, but the slowdown in its core businesses (e-commerce and live streaming) was faster than anticipated. Therefore, the bank maintained its "Neutral" rating but lowered its target price from HK$51 to HK$40.Futures Commentary by Everbright Futures: 1. Overnight, gold prices initially declined before rebounding. Spot gold recovered to $4,500/ounce, up 0.08%, while SHFE gold rose 1.03%. US initial jobless claims data was released, showing 206,000 claims this week, lower than the expected 210,000, indicating resilience in the job market. After a significant rise in gold prices the previous day, some profit-taking led to intraday volatility. The US Treasury expanded its long-term bond repurchase program, causing yields on long-term US Treasury bonds to rise again. US Treasury Secretary Bessenter stated that a single long-term bond repurchase could exceed $4 billion, emphasizing the Treasurys powerful toolbox, which further eased market concerns. However, expanding long-term bond repurchases cannot solve the problem of high US fiscal debt; the policy itself is a support measure after the bond market crash, and the market may gradually return to rationality. Short-term gold volatility has intensified. 2. On the geopolitical front, according to Xinhua News Agency, the US military has quietly established a shipping channel in and out of the Strait of Hormuz, ensuring that "millions of barrels" of oil are transported out of the Strait of Hormuz daily. This operation has been ongoing for several weeks. The rapidly growing US Treasury bond, concerns about stagflation, the stalemate in US-Iran negotiations, and the Federal Reserves indecisiveness regarding a September rate hike have fueled safe-haven demand for gold, potentially driving gold prices to maintain a relatively strong upward trend.The UKs July public sector net borrowing and seasonally adjusted retail sales figures will be released in ten minutes.On August 21, the Chongqing Municipal Peoples Government issued the "Chongqing Municipal 15th Five-Year Plan for the Construction of a Beautiful Chongqing (2026-2030)," which proposes to promote the low-carbon upgrading of transportation equipment. The plan calls for actively promoting new energy vehicles, advancing the electrification of public sector vehicles, and promoting the application of pure electric and hydrogen fuel cell commercial vehicles. It also calls for the construction of zero-carbon transportation corridors, establishing "zero-carbon corridors," implementing the scrapping and replacement of old operating vessels, and promoting new energy and clean energy-powered vessels. Furthermore, it aims to promote energy-saving and carbon-reducing retrofits of existing transportation infrastructure and construct a number of low-carbon stations, wharves, and highway service areas.Market news: Members of the SK Hynix South Korean labor union will vote on the provisional wages and labor agreement for 2026 from August 24 to 25.

Forecast for Gold Price: XAU/USD fluctuates above $1,950 as risk-on sentiment loses steam ahead of US NFP

Daniel Rogers

Feb 02, 2023 15:52

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Gold price (XAU/USD) is exhibiting back-and-forth movement in the early London session following a stunning rally above the important resistance of $1,950.00. As the US Dollar Index (DXY) builds a buffer around 100.50, the precious metal has shifted to the sidelines. A lesser interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve (Fed) has driven the USD Index onto a downward trend, maintaining the bullish bias.

 

National Bank of Canada economists opine, "It would be a mistake for the Fed to continue hiking its key rate substantially above the current level and holding it there for an extended length of time if inflation continues to disappoint." Therefore, a FOMC policy shift is anticipated in the first quarter of 2023, which would pave the way for a more protracted drop.

 

Meanwhile, S&P500 futures are confidently maintaining their morning gains, indicating that the risk appetite theme is highly robust. However, 10-year US Treasury yields have risen beyond 3.42 percent.

 

After the Fed's policy-induced volatility, investors are moving their attention to Friday's release of United States Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) (January) data. According to the consensus, the US economy added 185K jobs in January, compared to 223K in December. The unemployment rate is anticipated to rise to 3.6%. Also, the Average Hourly Earnings are anticipated to increase to 4.9% from 4.6% in the previous report.


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