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Forecast for Gold Price: XAU/USD falls sideways below $1,630 as DXY loses momentum and yields approach 4.24 percent

Daniel Rogers

Oct 21, 2022 15:05

 截屏2022-07-29 上午11.06.12.png

 

In the Tokyo session, the gold price (XAU/USD) is oscillating within a small range of $1,625.00-1,628.55. Gold awaits price action from the US dollar index (DXY). The DXY is battling to maintain its position above the immediate resistance level of 113.00. As S&P500 futures have retreated from about 3,645.00, the asset was unable to maintain above the 113.00 barrier.

 

Well, returns on U.S. government bonds are soaring like there is no tomorrow and do not perceive any barrier. Since the subprime crisis, 10-year US Treasury rates have increased to 4.24 percent for the first time. Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers' hawkish remarks have a positive impact on rates.

 

Thursday, Fed Governor Lisa Cook erroneously stated that inflationary pressures are too high and that additional rate hikes are necessary to combat them. She said that additional rate hikes are forthcoming and that the restrictive approach will be maintained.

 

According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a fourth consecutive 75 basis point (bps) rate increase remains over 93%.

 

After testing the $1,642.58–$1,670 range's highest auction area on an hourly scale, the gold price has experienced a precipitous drop. The precious gold is falling toward its two-year low of $1,614.85, which will occur on September 8, 2022. The decline of the 20-period and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) at $1,629.86 and $1,634.46 strengthens the negative filters.

 

In the meantime, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) is bouncing between 40.00 and 60.00, and a change into the negative 20.00 to 40.00 area will spark downward momentum.


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