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Focusing on UK politics and Retail Sales data, GBP/USD sellers probe 1.1200 barrier

Alina Haynes

Oct 21, 2022 15:15

 截屏2022-10-21 上午10.09.50.png

 

GBP/USD accepts offers to revisit intraday lows at the 1.1200 support level as traders await Friday morning's UK Retail Sales report. In the face of a stronger US Dollar Index (DXY) and US Treasury yields, in addition to the pre-data concerns, the political turmoil in Britain weighs on the Cable pair.

 

Liz Truss resigned as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom after the shortest tenure in the role. Truss's resignation was largely owing to the dismal economic plans detailed in the "mini-budget" and the British aversion for the same, which generated concerns regarding the return of Boris Johnson as UK prime minister. Notable is that Reuters said, "Britain's sixth prime minister in six years will be nominated by the Conservative Party on October 28.

 

According to the most recent data issued on Friday, GfK Consumer Confidence in the United Kingdom rose to -47 in September from a record low of -49 in August. As evidenced by a study conducted on Friday, Reuters reported that consumer confidence among British consumers remained around a record low this month, with households confronting double-digit inflation, rising interest rates, and political unrest.

 

The UK's headline inflation reached a multi-year high near 10% earlier in the week, increasing the chance that the Bank of England (BOE) may raise interest rates more rapidly/aggressively. Therefore, today's UK Retail Sales, which are expected to increase to -0.5% MoM in September from -1.0% MoM in August, will be crucial for GBP/USD buyers, as a better number could prevent the pair from breaking the immediate key support.

 

Along with aggressive Fedspeak, hawkish Fedbets and multi-year high US Treasury bond yields could weigh on the quote. Additionally, it will be essential to monitor political developments in the United Kingdom for additional impetus.

 

The 10-day simple moving average is accompanied by an upward-sloping trend line from September 28 to limit the immediate GBP/USD decline near 1.1200. Until the price crosses a five-week-old resistance line near 1.1330, however, the pair's buyers remain indifferent.


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