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On April 6, German Berenberg Bank said that due to the strong reaction of some US trading partners to the new tariffs and the widespread uncertainty, European economic sentiment in the second quarter may be worse than we previously expected. We lowered our forecast for real GDP growth in the euro area and the UK in the second quarter by 0.1 percentage point to 0.1% and 0.2% month-on-month respectively. This will lower our annual forecast for the euro area economy in 2025 to 0.9%, and our economic forecast for the UK in 2025 and 2026 to 0.9% and 1.3%, respectively.April 6, Germanys Berenberg Bank said that tariff uncertainty has not yet reached its peak. Trumps tariff shock has laid the foundation for negotiations. As long as the results of Trumps negotiations with various countries are unknown, companies around the world may hesitate to invest in the United States or its most affected trading partners. The failure of these negotiations may lead to rounds of tit-for-tat retaliation. Trump may also add new tariffs on specific industries, including medicines, which have so far been exempt from his reciprocal tariffs. We assume that in response to rising US inflation, economic turmoil and threats of retaliation, the United States will negotiate to cancel about half of its new tariffs on Europe by the end of the second quarter. Otherwise, the bank said it would have to further lower its forecasts for US and eurozone growth.The strong earthquake in Myanmar has killed 3,564 people, injured 5,012 people, and left 210 people missing.On April 6, German Berenberg Bank said that downward pressure on US economic growth has intensified. Based on the reciprocal tariffs announced on Wednesday, the sharp decline in US stocks (US households exposure to the stock market has reached a record high), and the continued rise in uncertainty that has hindered corporate investment and employment plans, we have lowered our forecast for US real GDP growth in 2025 from 2.3% to 1.7%, and GDP in 2026 from 2.0% to 1.6%. Due to the increase in tariffs and the recent rise in inflation expectations, we expect US inflation (measured by core PCE) to reach 3.0% in 2025, compared with the previous forecast of 2.7%.European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will meet with British Prime Minister Starmer in London on April 24.

Early Support for ETH and BTC, with US Economic Indicators in Focus

Alina Haynes

Nov 03, 2022 19:39

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Wednesday saw Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) join the larger market in the red. The NASDAQ Composite Index, Bitcoin, and Ethereum all fell in response to Fed Chair Powell's news conference. Nevertheless, the technical indications continue to be optimistic, indicating upward price trends. On Wednesday, Ethereum (ETH) fell 3.80%. Reversing Tuesday's gain of 0.32%, ETH closed the day at $1,518.

 

After a turbulent morning session, ETH recovered to a high of $1,622 by late afternoon. ETH surpassed the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $1,606 prior to falling to a late low of $1,506. ETH ended the day below $1,520 after breaking through the First Major Support Level (S1) at $1,556 and the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $1,535.

 

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On Wednesday, the price of bitcoin (BTC) plummeted by 1.63 percent. BTC ended Tuesday at $20,165, a decrease of 0.04% from its opening price.

 

BTC rose to a high of $20,817 in response to the FOMC Statement, following a range-bound morning. BTC surpassed the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $20,686 before falling to an intraday low of $20,086. BTC went below the First and Second Major Support Levels (S1 and S2) at $20,327 and $20,154, respectively.

 

In accordance with forecasts, the Fed raised rates by 75 basis points on Wednesday. The FOMC Statement hinted at a likely policy move in December, lending credence to December Fed pivot wagers. The Rate Statement pushed BTC and ETH to their daily peaks.

 

However, Fed Chair Powell dashed prospects for a reversal, citing excessive inflation and the need to continue forward. Powell remarked that the "final level of interest rates will be higher than anticipated."

 

As a result, the NASDAQ Composite Index fell 3.36 percent, sending BTC and ETH into the negative.

 

Today, attention will be on US factory orders, jobless claims, and the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI. We anticipate the PMI and its subcomponents to have the most effect.

 

Due to the sensitivity of BTC and ETH to US economic statistics and the FED, the correlation with the NASDAQ Composite Index remains intact. The NASDAQ 100 Mini was up 35 points this morning.