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February 13th - According to a Reuters poll, the median forecast from economists surveyed indicates that the US January CPI month-on-month growth rate is likely to be 0.3%, similar to the growth rate in December. Economists expectations range from 0.1% to 0.4%. The year-on-year CPI growth rate is expected to be 2.5%, a decline from Decembers 2.7%, which economists believe is mainly due to the exclusion of last years higher inflation rate from the calculation. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release a recalculated seasonal adjustment factor when releasing the January CPI report to reflect price changes in 2025. This may lead to revisions to the seasonally adjusted CPI index over the past five years. Economists believe that the updated calculation model by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics may not be able to resolve the January effect of CPI data: CPI data exceeds expectations every January.February 13th, Futures News: As of 15:00 Beijing time, spot platinum rose 1.39%, and spot palladium rose 2.76%.Germanys wholesale price index rose 1.2% year-on-year in January, unchanged from the previous month.Germanys wholesale price index rose 0.9% month-on-month in January, compared with a previous reading of -0.2%.February 13th - Analysts believe that tonights US inflation data may bring more positive news. Dow Jones market forecast indicates that the US overall CPI will rise 2.5% year-on-year in January. If the data meets expectations, it means the CPI will return to the level of May 2025 – when President Trump had just implemented the "Liberation Day" tariffs, which many economists worried would lead to a sharp rise in prices. The overall CPI in December was 2.7%, trending downwards since its peak of slightly above 3% in September, while the core CPI was 2.6%. Both indicators are expected to record a 0.3% month-on-month increase in January. It is worth noting that CPI data for the past three months has been lower than Wall Streets expectations, so a lower-than-expected January figure could strengthen Federal Reserve officials confidence in cutting interest rates without triggering a new round of inflation. Tom Lee, head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors, said that an inflation level of 2.5% would be consistent with pre-COVID-19 levels and close to the average level of 2017-2019. Lee pointed out, "Even though the data still reflects the effects of tariffs, this is a normal level of inflation." He added that the current target range for the federal funds rate is 3.5%-3.75%, well above pre-pandemic levels, and "the Fed has considerable room to cut rates."

EUR/JPY hits resistance at 143.30 despite Japan's dismal Unemployment data

Daniel Rogers

Jul 01, 2022 11:12

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The EUR/JPY pair is facing resistance at 143.30 despite the increase in Japan's Unemployment Rate. According to the Statistics Bureau of Japan, the unemployment rate is 2.6%, which is higher than both estimates and the previous number of 2.5%. The ratio of job openings to applicants has climbed to 1.24, which is higher than the previous reading of 1.23 and in line with the consensus prediction of 1.24.

 

Rising employment prospects in the Japanese economy suggest that the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) conservative monetary policy is fostering job creation. The availability of inexpensive money in the economy fosters aggressive corporate investment. In addition, the rising exports of the economy and the inexpensive Japanese yen are boosting the labor market. In FY2021, Japan's tax revenue surpassed 67 trillion yen - Nikkei. A rise in the economy's tax revenue may provide support for the yen bulls.

 

The bulls of the shared currency await the publication of the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices on the eurozone front (HICP). According to forecasts, the annual inflation rate might rise from 8.1 percent to 8.3 percent. Christine Lagarde, president of the European Central Bank (ECB), stated that despite a slew of rate hike announcements, a return to a lower inflation environment is exceedingly improbable.


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