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JPMorgan Chase: Predicts a US economic recession in 2025.On April 5, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell made it clear that the Fed will not rush to respond to the comprehensive tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, nor will it respond to the financial market turmoil caused by concerns about a global recession. Powell said at a conference in Virginia on Friday that tariffs could have a significant impact on the US economy, including slower growth and higher inflation. But he added that Fed officials will wait until these policies are clearer before cutting interest rates. He also emphasized that with inflation still high, the central bank has an obligation to ensure that the temporary increase in prices caused by tariffs does not turn into a more lasting increase. "The Fed cant insure the economy as it did in the trade war in 2018 and 2019 because inflation is too high and above their target," said Julia Coronado, founder of research firm MacroPolicy Perspectives. She believes there will be a recession in the second half of this year. "Even if they conclude that they need to cut interest rates, they may cut interest rates later and slower because we will be in the inflationary impulse."Russian drones carried out a "large-scale" attack on Krivoy Rog, Ukraine, following a missile strike, local Ukrainian officials said, starting fires at four locations.On April 5, JPMorgan analyst David Lebovitz said that the U.S. stock market has hit a low buying range because he believes that the United States will still avoid a tariff-induced recession. Lebovitz has been waiting for the S&P 500 to hit 5,100 points, and the index fell below that level on Friday afternoon. He is far from being "fully betting" on the U.S. stock market and believes that the risk of a U.S. recession is rising. But Lebovitz said he might take advantage of the recent stock market sell-off to increase positions modestly at current trading levels. "The cheaper the stock, the more interested we are," Lebovitz said. "In the long run, underweight stocks in non-recession years tend not to work well from a return perspective."According to the Washington Post: The IRS will cut 25% of its staff.

EUR/GBP Price Analysis: Breakout of the Flag Indicates Potential for New Upward Movement

Daniel Rogers

Jan 11, 2023 12:00

EUR:GBP.png 

 

During the Asian session, the EUR/GBP pair is behaving erratically below the crucial barrier of 0.8840. The cross trades aimlessly due to the absence of a potential stimulus. In the meantime, it is predicted that the European Central Bank (ECB) will cease its policy tightening, as Mario Centeno, a member of the ECB's governing council, stated that Eurozone inflation may find stiff opposition in January and February, but will begin to decrease in March.

 

EUR/GBP is forming a Bullish Flag chart pattern on a four-hour time frame, which indicates consolidation followed by a breakout. Participants typically initiate long positions during the consolidation period of a chart pattern, preferring to enter an auction once a bullish bias has been established.

 

Near 0.8820, the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) has moved sideways, suggesting continued consolidation. While the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) is still climbing, a bullish long-term trend is indicated.

 

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) fluctuates between 40.00 and 60.00 in the interim. It indicates that a probable conviction move trigger is not present.

 

A breach of the January 6 high at 0.8871 will accelerate the asset towards the round-number barrier at 0.8900, followed by the September 29 high at 0.8979.

 

In comparison, a decline below Monday's low of 0.8769 will lead to the asset's December 21 low of 0.8716. A fall in the latter will cause the asset to reach a low of 0.8691 on December 19.


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