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Chart: Speculative Sentiment Index on Friday, June 12, 2026Trump halts strikes against Iran, says peace agreement to be signed "in the coming days," causing international oil prices to plummet. A quick chart shows the pre-market conversion of domestic and international crude oil prices.According to Futures News on June 12, as of 8:30 AM Beijing time, spot platinum rose 0.56% and spot palladium rose 1.50%.June 12 (Futures News) – Since the second quarter, gold prices have continued to decline, and market pessimism has spread. Signals from the options market indicate that some traders are betting that this decline will continue for the next two years. 1. According to ThinkOrSwim and SpotGamma data, approximately $200 million in premiums were traded in the GLD options market on Wednesday, of which $130 million was related to put options. Of the top 10 contracts by trading volume, 8 were put options, and more than half of the put option premiums were traded at or above the ask price, indicating that these contracts were primarily bought. The second most traded option contract was a put contract expiring in June 2028 with a strike price of $240, priced at $11.50 per contract – this is a deep bearish bet, meaning traders expect the GLD ETF (SPDR Gold Trust) to fall by approximately 40% over the next two years. 2. Market participants told Futures Daily that the recent decline in gold prices is not due to the collapse of the long-term bull market foundation, but rather to the concentrated release of short-term macroeconomic negative factors, among which the change in expectations for the Federal Reserves monetary policy is the core negative factor. 3. Lin Zhenlong, senior precious metals analyst at Shanjin Futures, added that the core reason for the more than 20% drop in gold prices since the beginning of the year is a phased shift in market pricing power, rather than a failure of long-term logic. Long-term supporting factors such as central bank gold purchases and de-dollarization remain unchanged, but the short-term trading focus has completely shifted to interest rates. The increase in US Treasury yields and the strengthening of the US dollar have raised the cost of holding gold, triggering a sell-off by bulls. Currently, the impact of real interest rates on gold prices far exceeds traditional supporting factors such as safe-haven assets. In the medium to long term, the supporting logic for a long-term bull market in gold remains solid. However, before a substantial shift in Federal Reserve policy and confirmation that US Treasury yields have peaked, gold is unlikely to start a trend of upward movement and will most likely continue to fluctuate and consolidate at the bottom. (This content and opinion are for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice.)Euro Stoxx 50 futures rose 1.8%, German DAX futures rose 1.7%, and UK FTSE futures rose 0.9%.

EU leaders cannot agree on a gas price ceiling amid an energy shortage

Skylar Williams

Oct 20, 2022 14:46

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In an effort to decrease energy prices, the leaders of the 27 member states of the European Union will meet on Thursday for the second time in two weeks. Due to ongoing debates, it is uncertain if the union will cap the price at which it purchases natural gas at this time.


Following their earlier agreement to decrease consumption and apply taxes on windfall gains in the energy industry, the 27 are anticipated to endorse an alternative pricing benchmark for liquefied natural gas and joint gas purchasing.


As a result of Russia's blockade of gas exports in reaction to the invasion of Ukraine, they are as divided as they were many months ago regarding whether and how to control gas prices to battle excessive inflation and avert a recession.


While 15 nations, including France and Poland, support a quota of some kind, they face strong opposition from Germany and the Netherlands, Europe's largest economy and largest gas consumer, and a major European gas trading centre, respectively.


Prior to Thursday's meetings, a senior EU diplomat indicated that "an agreement is highly unlikely... Opinions appear to be significantly different."


In addition, they will discuss emergency spending to mitigate the impact of the severe energy crisis on their separate economies and 450 million citizens.


While some nations have encouraged the group to issue new debt to finance this, more frugal members believe that the hundreds of billions of euros left over from previous initiatives should be spent first.


A second contentious issue is whether to provide immediate assistance through direct subsidies to individuals and businesses or to invest in green energy to make the bloc more resilient in the future.


The summit's leader, the president of the European Council, declared, "Diversity is not a luxury we can afford."


Given the diverse energy mix and interests of EU member states, the summit risks falling short of actual action, with other problems such as whether a gas cap would allow the United Kingdom to purchase energy at a lower price or undermine the reliability of energy supplies.


E3G, a research tank focused on the transition to a low-carbon economy, stated, "Unity among member states is gravely threatened by unilateral national decisions announced in the absence of an EU framework to tie them together."


This fragmentation...could harm the credibility of the EU's reaction.


According to a senior EU diplomat, additional concrete decisions are not expected before November. The EU energy ministers will meet again next week.

KRIEG IN UKRAINE

EU leaders will also consider measures for offering extra support to Ukraine, such as providing energy equipment, aiding in the restoration of the power supply, and providing long-term finance for the nation's future rehabilitation.


As it pertains to bringing those suspected of committing war crimes in Ukraine to justice, some EU members seek to establish a specialized tribunal immediately, but others wish to move more cautiously in order to attract the most international support.


The draft statement of the leaders states, "The European (Union) Council condemns in the strongest possible terms the recent indiscriminate Russian missile and drone attacks on civilians and civilian property and infrastructure in Kyiv and throughout Ukraine."


They will identify Belarus for its role in assisting Russia's conflict, but it is unlikely that they will support more sanctions against Moscow on Thursday.


In response to Iran's use of Iranian-made drones in Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the bloc is working to impose more sanctions against Iran.