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On September 21st, Galaxy Securities released a research report stating that, in the long term, the Feds interest rate hikes will not change the fundamental logic of the AI technology revolution boosting productivity. While AI infrastructure construction may drive up demand for resources such as chips and electricity in the short term, in the long run, AI will create a structural deflationary effect by improving total factor productivity and expanding supply capacity, thus offsetting inflationary pressures. The long-term growth trend of global AI capital expenditure has not reversed, and the demand for computing power will continue to expand. Several Fed officials believe that AI will push up the neutral interest rate level, meaning that even if nominal interest rates remain high, the real policy rate may be relatively low. The growth resilience of the AI industry is sufficient to support its continued development in a high-interest-rate environment. Therefore, in the medium to long term, the fundamental logic of the AI industry remains solid, and the valuation adjustments brought about by interest rate hikes actually provide a more reasonable valuation starting point for companies with real performance support.ANZ Bank: The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in both September and November.Futures News, September 21st: Crude oil prices continued to fall, and while there was positive news and cost support for domestic fuel oil, market participants lacked confidence, risk aversion intensified, and the market returned to being driven by supply and demand. Downstream buyers mostly maintained a cautious approach, restocking only for immediate needs. Market trading slowed down, and it is expected that fuel oil negotiations will remain stable in some areas today, while others may see price reductions to encourage volume.September 21st - ZCode, the AI programming tool from the domestic large-scale model company Zhipu (2513.HK), is about to be officially open-sourced. According to Zhipu, this open-sourcing is the first step in addressing external concerns about ZCodes data processing; in the future, they will further promote ZCode towards a more community-driven approach, welcoming the public to download, review the code, and participate in its improvement.Goldman Sachs: If Persian Gulf LNG exports do not improve significantly this winter, TTF and JKM prices are expected to reach €105/MWh and $35/MMBtu by the end of the year.

ETH Bulls Need to Avoid Sub-$1,500 to Target $1,700 on FTX Sentiment

Jan 16, 2023 15:42


On Saturday, Ethereum (ETH) gained 6.75%. On Friday, ETH gained 2.54% and closed the day at $1,550. For the first time since November 7, ETH finished the day at $1,500.


ETH rose from a low of $1,449 to a high of $1,598 over the first hour of a bullish trend before turning around. ETH crossed the Major Resistance Levels before slipping down to around $1,505. ETH breached both the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $1,505 and the Third Major Resistance Level (R3) at $1,570 during the downturn.


However, after regaining support in the late afternoon, ETH once again crossed R2, closing the day at $1,550.


Bitcoin (BTC) increased by 5.20% on Saturday. After breaking out by 5.70% on Friday, BTC finished the day at $20,966. Notably, BTC crossed the $10,000 threshold for the first time since November 7 and extended its winning run to seven sessions, the longest since March 2022.


BTC climbed from a low of $19,897 to a high of $21,378 over the first hour of a bullish trend before reversing. BTC crossed above both the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) and the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $20,378 and $20,827, respectively. Nevertheless, the retreat caused BTC to briefly retest R2 and R1 before closing the day at $20,966.

Fed policy bets and reducing the risk of FTX contagion provided support

After a bullish Friday session, the Saturday session got off to a breakout start thanks to reduced FTX contagion risk. The possibility of another FTX-linked crypto site failing was lessened by reports that FTX had $5 billion in cash and cash equivalents and $4.6 billion worth of nonstrategic assets.


The most recent figures indicate that the damages resulting from FTX's collapse may be minimal, even if it could take some time for FTX to make creditors whole.


The prognosis for the US economy and the Fed's monetary policy were both seen favorably by the market. Bets for a 25-basis point increase in interest rates in February have been driven by recent US economic figures. The risk of a harsh landing would decrease with a less aggressive Fed interest rate trajectory.


The Sunday session got off to a bearish start. Investors probably locked in gains after a seven-day winning run before deciding what to do next. More price rises are supported by indicators and favourable conditions. However, regulatory risk and the SEC v. Ripple lawsuit continue to be challenges.


Crypto-negative outcomes include a Ripple defeat to the SEC and a change in the regulatory environment that stifles development and innovation.

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