EUR/USD 1.13587
-0.267%
Gold 3304.73
-1.311%
Oil 62.946
0.567%
USD/JPY 143.646
0.705%
GBP/USD 1.33184
-0.168%
GBP/JPY 191.311
0.579%
Browse More
  • English
  • 简体中文
  • 繁體中文
  • Tiếng Việt
  • ไทย
  • Indonesia
Subscribe
Real-time News
On April 26, according to the Wall Street Journal, in order to simplify the negotiations on reciprocal tariffs, US negotiating officials plan to use a new framework developed by the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR), which lists major categories of negotiations, such as tariffs and quotas, non-tariff trade barriers, digital trade, product origin principles, economic security and other commercial issues. In these categories, US officials will put forward specific requirements for individual countries, but people familiar with the matter emphasized that this document may also be adjusted at any time. People familiar with the matter said that the United States initial plan is to negotiate with 18 major trading partners in turn over the next two months. The initial plan is to alternately participate in the talks with six countries per week for three weeks (six countries in the first week, another six countries in the second week, and another six countries in the third week) until the deadline of July 8. If US President Trump does not extend the 90-day suspension period he set by then, those countries that cannot reach an agreement will begin to face reciprocal tariffs.On April 26, after the United States announced additional tariffs on goods from many countries, Peruvian business people expressed concerns that the US governments extreme measures would disrupt the global trade order and may even trigger a global economic recession. Alvaro Barrenechea Chavez, vice president of the Peruvian-Chinese Chamber of Commerce, said that the negative impact of the US tariff policy has begun to emerge and hoped that the US government would rethink. Recognizing the importance of countries working together to promote development, I think this is the best way to become a true "world citizen."Market news: Musks xAI company plans to raise about US$20 billion in a financing round.Conflict situation: 1. Ukrainian top commander: Russia tried to use air strikes as a cover to increase ground attacks, but was repelled by Ukraine. 2. Ukrainian Air Force: Russia launched more than 103 drones in the night attack on Ukraine. 3. Local officials said Ukraine launched an attack in the Belgorod region of Russia, killing two people. 4. The local governor said that Russia launched an attack on the Dnipropetrovsk region of Ukraine, killing one person and injuring eight people. Peace talks: 1. Trump: ① The situation between Russia and Ukraine is gradually becoming clear, and they are "very close" to reaching an agreement. ② Ukraine is unlikely to join NATO. ③ Ukraine has not yet signed the rare earth agreement and hopes that the agreement can be signed immediately. ④ It is foreseeable that the United States will conduct commercial cooperation with Ukraine and Russia after reaching an agreement. 2. Russian Foreign Minister: Russia is "ready to reach an agreement on Ukraine." 3. Russian Presidential Assistant Ushakov: Russia and the United States will continue to maintain active dialogue. 4. Russian Presidential Assistant: Putin discussed the possibility of resuming direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine with the US envoy. 5. The differences between the United States, Europe and Ukraine are clear. The documents show that European countries and Ukraine have raised objections to some of the US proposals to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict. 6. Market news: As part of the peace agreement, the United States asked Russian President Putin to abandon the demilitarization requirement. Other situations: 1. President of Hungarys OTP Bank: We hope to return to all business areas in Russia after the (Russia-Ukraine) conflict ends. 2. Ukrainian President Zelensky: US ground forces are not necessary for Ukraine. 3. Trump said Crimea will remain in Russia, Zelensky: Never recognize it. Agreeing with Trumps view, Crimea cannot be recovered by force. 4. NATO Secretary-General Rutte met with Trump and senior US officials to discuss defense spending, NATO summit, and the Ukrainian conflict.Rising global trade risks, overall policy uncertainty and the sustainability of U.S. debt top the list of potential risks to the U.S. financial system, according to the Federal Reserves latest financial stability report released on Friday. This is the first time the Fed has conducted a semi-annual survey on financial risks since Trump returned to the White House. 73% of respondents said that global trade risks are their biggest concern, more than double the proportion reported in November. Half of the respondents believe that overall policy uncertainty is the most worrying issue, an increase from the same period last year. The survey also found that issues related to recent market turmoil have received more attention, with 27% of respondents worried about the functioning of the U.S. Treasury market, up from 17% last fall. Foreign withdrawals from U.S. assets and the value of the dollar have also risen on the list of concerns.

Determining Bitcoin's Trend Allows for More Manageable Trading

Saqib Iqbal

Dec 21, 2021 14:32

I generally present my Elliott Wave Principle count, however I wish to concentrate on something else since the Bulls fumbled the ball a couple of weeks ago (see my previous update here). In this case, identifying a pattern as "the pattern is always your good friend" in trading. Why? It helps us figure out to be aggressive, conservative, or downright Bearish and make trading less complicated.

 

I constantly start my daily crypto trading updates with my "the pattern is your friend chart.": see Figure 1 listed below. It is so simple; one does not even need to understand BTC's actual rate to inform us if the cost is trending greater or lower and how one should place oneself.

 

image.png

The pattern is down. Trade it accordingly.

Here I plot BTC's rate as a dotted line due to the fact that I just need to understand where it is worrying the following indicators: 4 simple moving averages (SMAs), the Ichimoku Cloud (the Cloud), and the Bollinger Bands. These variables help determine what the pattern is. Specifically, the SMAs are: very short-term (VST), short-term (ST), intermediate-term (IT), and long-term (LT).

 

It is a Bullish pattern when BTC's rate is above the VST, above the ST, > IT, > LT. In addition, all SMAs must be increasing. One likewise desires the price above "the Cloud," The Cloud requires to be green (rising) too, to know the trend is 100% Bullish. Finally, the uptrend is powerful if the rate is at the upper Bollinger Band. Trading strategy: by the dip (BDP), remain long, offer into strength.

 

Figure 1 reveals three such durations with the blue boxes. As you can see, with such a setup, the trend is your friend for long positions. Yes, the VST-SMA can dip below the ST-SMA, but that's your "BDP" for shorter-term traders.

 

On the other hand, the pattern becomes Bearish when BTC's price drops listed below "the Cloud," consequently listed below more of the SMAs, and "flights" the lower Bollinger Bands. Figure 1 shows two such durations over the past 15 months: red boxes. Trading technique: end up being conservative, i.e., raise cash, offer the rips, potentially brief the crypto.

 

As you can see, following this chart could have avoided a lot of pain throughout the May through July sell-off. And preventing substantial drawdowns is still the most reliable method to riches as it allows one to protect capital, which is then prepared to be deployed during the next uptrend. Or, as they state, "( s) he who loses the least amount of cash comes out the winner," and "wash, soap, repeat."

 

BTC got in an initial drop for the Bulls in mid-November early December as the VST and ST-SMAs dropped listed below the IT-SMA. That does not occur in strong uptrends (see blue boxes). In early December, the preliminary drop was confirmed when BTC also moved below "the Cloud."

 

Adding fuel to the fire, the crypto is now also trading below its LT-SMA. Hence, there is now a BTC<IT>VST< ST< IT< the Cloud setup, exhibited by the 5 red arrows in what I call "the traffic control." The traffic light has actually been nearly entirely red over the past several weeks. That suggests "caution, stop, and so on". Something I interact with my premium crypto trading members daily.

 

Hence the present pattern is not the Bulls' buddy and similar to June-July when BTC lost another 25%. As such, the pattern informs us to look lower, not greater. Two weeks ago, I was already trying to find ideally $28-36K. See here. With BTC presently trading at around $46K it has room to drop some more, which is what the "pattern is your good friend" chart tells us.

Bottom line

The Bitcoin Bulls fumbled the ball already two weeks earlier, and because the price of BTC has decreased another 10%. Here I provide an easy "the pattern is your buddy" chart that objectively assists determine if BTC is trending greater or lower and if one, therefore, ought to anticipate lower or higher prices. That pattern, in turn, allows us to identify how to trade BTC. The existing setup currently called for "raising money, conservative mode" a couple of weeks earlier, and that strategy has yet to be proven wrong. When the trend changes once again, we have lots of time to ride the uptrend and release the money stashed on the sidelines. Due to the fact that please remember, "money is also a position." Trade safely!

Suggestion