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On April 6, German Berenberg Bank said that due to the strong reaction of some US trading partners to the new tariffs and the widespread uncertainty, European economic sentiment in the second quarter may be worse than we previously expected. We lowered our forecast for real GDP growth in the euro area and the UK in the second quarter by 0.1 percentage point to 0.1% and 0.2% month-on-month respectively. This will lower our annual forecast for the euro area economy in 2025 to 0.9%, and our economic forecast for the UK in 2025 and 2026 to 0.9% and 1.3%, respectively.April 6, Germanys Berenberg Bank said that tariff uncertainty has not yet reached its peak. Trumps tariff shock has laid the foundation for negotiations. As long as the results of Trumps negotiations with various countries are unknown, companies around the world may hesitate to invest in the United States or its most affected trading partners. The failure of these negotiations may lead to rounds of tit-for-tat retaliation. Trump may also add new tariffs on specific industries, including medicines, which have so far been exempt from his reciprocal tariffs. We assume that in response to rising US inflation, economic turmoil and threats of retaliation, the United States will negotiate to cancel about half of its new tariffs on Europe by the end of the second quarter. Otherwise, the bank said it would have to further lower its forecasts for US and eurozone growth.The strong earthquake in Myanmar has killed 3,564 people, injured 5,012 people, and left 210 people missing.On April 6, German Berenberg Bank said that downward pressure on US economic growth has intensified. Based on the reciprocal tariffs announced on Wednesday, the sharp decline in US stocks (US households exposure to the stock market has reached a record high), and the continued rise in uncertainty that has hindered corporate investment and employment plans, we have lowered our forecast for US real GDP growth in 2025 from 2.3% to 1.7%, and GDP in 2026 from 2.0% to 1.6%. Due to the increase in tariffs and the recent rise in inflation expectations, we expect US inflation (measured by core PCE) to reach 3.0% in 2025, compared with the previous forecast of 2.7%.European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will meet with British Prime Minister Starmer in London on April 24.

Despite the dovish BOJ minutes, the AUD/JPY encounters obstacles at 95

Daniel Rogers

Jul 26, 2022 11:56

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The early hours of the Tokyo session saw the AUD/JPY pair present a downward breach of the minute consolidation formed in a range of 94.97-95.18. As a result, the pair is now falling. The asset has generally held up well, and this little decline can be attributed to market participants "taking gains." Since the Bank of Japan (BOJ(released) )'s dovish minutes from its monetary policy meeting in June, the risk barometer has decreased.

 

The BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda kept the same interest rate policy last week, so investors should be mindful of this. In order to keep an inflation rate above the desired threshold, the BOJ kept its ultra-loose monetary policy in place. Its unwillingness to raise pay rates is becoming a significant barrier, though, and inflation rates higher than 2% are rarely justified by rising energy and food prices. In addition, the BOJ announced that it will continue to buy an unlimited number of bonds in order to maintain its bond yield cap.

 

Investors are eagerly awaiting the release of Australian Bureau of Statistics' inflation statistics on Wednesday in the aussie market. The predicted increase in the overall Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the second quarter of CY2022 is 6.2 percent, up from the previously estimated 5.1 percent. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will be forced by this to increase interest rates even further in its monetary policy for August. Following a 50 basis point (bps) hike in July, Governor Philip Lowe of the RBA has already increased the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to 1.35 percent.