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On October 29th, market analyst Giuseppe stated that ADP released its four-week U.S. employment data for the period ending October 11, 2025, showing an average weekly increase of 14,250 jobs, which translates to approximately 57,000 jobs added over those four weeks. The Dallas Fed estimated in early October that the current break-even point was around 30,000 jobs per month, making 57,000 significantly higher. Given the lack of government data, the strong rebound signal from ADP could make Fed Chairman Powell more cautious in hinting at a December rate cut. If so, it would be seen as a hawkish surprise and significantly impact the market. Furthermore, Waller, one of the most dovish Fed governors and a candidate for Fed Chair, has also stated that the ADP data is one of his reasons for supporting a rate cut. Recently, he stated, "I still believe in a rate cut, but we need to be cautious about it."On October 29th, Giuseppe Dellamotta, an analyst at the US financial website InvestingLive, stated that he expects the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 2.25%, which is the lower end of his estimated neutral interest rate range (2.25%-3.25%). The market still believes that the Bank of Canada is very likely to end this rate-cutting cycle at 2.00% sometime in 2026. At the press conference, Bank of Canada Governor Macklem is not expected to provide any clear forward guidance. Recent expectations of a rate cut have solidified, mainly due to some dovish comments from Macklem and the renewed tensions between the US and Canada over tariffs. While we all know that the US and Canada will eventually reconcile, for now, this risk should give the Bank of Canada reason to be dovish. If the Bank of Canada keeps rates unchanged, this would be seen as a hawkish surprise, and the Canadian dollar should strengthen across the board. However, in the current context, surprising the market may not be a good thing for the bank.Indias HMEL has suspended further purchases of Russian crude oil.On October 29th, Pansen Macroeconomics economists stated in a report that the Bank of England is likely to vote to keep interest rates unchanged on November 6th. This is likely to be a close decision, with the Bank of England possibly voting 6-3 to maintain the rate at 4.0%. With UK inflation appearing to be slowing, the Bank of England may also signal a rate cut in December. Data shows that the market expects a 39% probability of a rate cut in November and a 74% probability in December.Indian Trade Minister Piyush Goyal: India and the EU are working to reach a balanced trade agreement.

Despite the Bank of England's less hawkish forecasts, GBP/USD is expected to rise beyond 1.2170

Daniel Rogers

Aug 04, 2022 11:52

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The GBP/USD pair has showed a modest retreat after failing to reclaim the 1.2170 resistance level. As the US dollar index (DXY) is projected to extend losses below 106.30, the upside stays favored. After a good fall to the round-number support around 1.2100, the asset has resumed its general uptrend.

 

As investors await the Bank of England's monetary policy decision, the cable might exhibit some volatility in the near future (BOE). In consideration of market expectations, BOE Governor Andrew Bailey will raise interest rates to 1.75 percent as a second successive 50 basis point (bps) increase is anticipated.

 

No one could dispute the reality that households in the United Kingdom are suffering tremendous pricing pressures. The inflation rate has risen to 9.4 percent, and there have been no indicators of a peak as of yet. The rate of inflation might reach double digits if the rate of price growth continues to accelerate, and families will be forced to pay more for identical quantities.

 

Well, a 50 basis point rate boost is insufficient to battle the inflation monster. However, dismal growth estimates and a decrease in the Labor Cost Index prevent the BOE from sounding excessively hawkish.

 

On the dollar front, the US dollar index (DXY) is experiencing uncertain movement as the visit to Taiwan by US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has exacerbated protracted Sino-US tensions. The United States has held the global leadership position for a considerable amount of time, and China is keen to take over. Therefore, the United States' backing for Taiwan, a country with enormous technical potential, has exacerbated tensions between the United States and China.


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