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Both WTI and Brent crude oil opened about 1% higher on Monday, currently trading at $102.57 per barrel and $107.15 per barrel, respectively.On March 30th, Jefferies stated that Australian refineries can only meet a small fraction of domestic fuel demand. The conflict in Iran has led to rising petrol and diesel prices, and Australias competition regulator has expressed concern about supply issues in areas including suburban areas, regional towns, and remote regions. Jefferies estimates that Australian refinery output can meet approximately 37% of petrol demand and about 14% of diesel demand. This conclusion is based on an analysis of Australian oil statistics from last year. "Even in Queensland and Victoria, where Ampore and Viva Energy respectively own refineries, the output of Litton and Geelong is insufficient to meet the states total demand for petrol or diesel," said analyst Michael Simotas.According to Iranian state media, a petrochemical plant in Tabriz, a city in northwestern Iran, was attacked.1. Ukrainian Armed Forces: Russian troops lost approximately 1,360 soldiers yesterday. 2. RIA Novosti: Russia claims to have captured the village of Kivsharivka in Kharkiv Oblast, Ukraine. 3. Russia warns South Korea that it will retaliate if it provides lethal weapons to Ukraine. 4. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov: Russian-American relations have fallen to a historic low in recent years; Russia is willing to develop relations with the US. 5. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky: Following the Ukrainian attack, oil refineries in Leningrad Oblast, Russia, are operating at only 40% capacity. 6. Governor of Leningrad Oblast: A fire broke out at the Baltic port of Ust-Luga, Russia, caused by a Ukrainian drone attack; the fire is now under control.On March 30th, economist Rory Robertson stated that the Australian economy may have already experienced a downturn due to the oil price shock and threats to energy supplies. If the economy did not actually contract in March, the constraints imposed on numerous industries by the sudden surge in fuel prices (especially diesel) and reduced supply could force a slight contraction in economic activity in April. Robertson stated that the economic outlook depends on whether the problems can be resolved as quickly as they appeared. He added that historical experience shows that sudden and prolonged oil price shocks often turn into economic disasters.

Despite decreased oil prices, USDCAD fights above 1.3400; news on the US midterm elections is in focus

Daniel Rogers

Nov 09, 2022 17:59

 截屏2022-11-09 下午4.15.27.png

 

Amid tumultuous market conditions, the USDCAD is trading near 1.3450 ahead of Wednesday's European session. In addition to covid concerns from China and a cautious disposition before of significant data/events, the closure of the United States government has restricted the Loonie pair's recent fluctuations.

 

However, weakening prices of Canada's principal export, especially WTI Crude Oil, support USDCAD bulls. As of press time, the energy benchmark has decreased for three consecutive trading days, falling 0.85% intraday to approximately $87.75.

 

Aside from this, the US Dollar Index (DXY) shows small increases near 109.70 despite mounting fears of a US government deadlock due to the outcomes of the most recent election. In addition to articles anticipating a six-month high in China's covid rate and additional virus-driven lockdowns, the market's concerns and the USDCAD exchange rate may be heightened.

 

S&P 500 Futures struggle to replicate Wall Street's advances, as US 10-year Treasury rates stay bearish despite breaking a four-day downturn the previous day.

 

The uncertainty around Thursday's US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October and a speech by the Governor of the Bank of Canada (BOC), Tiff Macklem, provides a challenge to pair purchasers, it should be noted. Recent inconsistent US numbers and Fedspeak, as well as the BOC's delaying of rate hikes, may be to blame.

 

A one-week-old descending trend line depicts the current USDCAD decline. The bearish MACD signal and the obvious breach of the preceding support line from the beginning of October also provide sellers with optimism. In addition, the bearish picture is strengthened by the pair's continued trading below the 200-SMA.


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