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July 30th - US semiconductor stocks extended their gains, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rising 9% and the Nasdaq Composite Index currently up 2.6%. Micron Technology (MU.O) surged over 16%, AMD (AMD.O) rose over 15%, and Intel (INTC.O) climbed over 14%.U.S. EIA natural gas inventories for the week ending July 24 were 28 billion cubic feet, compared to an expected 35 billion cubic feet and a previous reading of 32 billion cubic feet.World Trade Organization: Brazil has filed a dispute settlement lawsuit over US tariffs.On July 30, the Thailand Futures Exchange issued an announcement stating that due to a 2.50% drop in the USD/JPY futures trading price compared to the most recent settlement price, and in accordance with the guidelines for suspending trading of derivatives due to triggering daily price fluctuation limits, the Thailand Futures Exchange decided to temporarily suspend futures trading of this currency pair from 21:04:41 local time, and resume formal trading at 21:06:41.On July 30th, after the Bank of England kept interest rates unchanged and stated that domestic inflationary pressures were easing, UK short-term government bonds saw their biggest single-day gain in over a month. The yield on the most sensitive monetary policy gilt fell 11 basis points to 4.34%, the largest single-day drop since June 12th. Bank of England Governor Bailey stated at a press conference that he did not want people to "leave the meeting with the impression that the committee is gradually moving towards raising interest rates," after which UK government bonds further extended their gains. Influenced by the Bank of Englands dovish stance, the money market expects the Bank of England to raise interest rates by a cumulative total of about 32 basis points by the end of this year, lower than the 38 basis points before the decision was announced. The markets probability of a rate hike at the September meeting has also fallen from nearly 60% to less than 40%. James Lynch, portfolio manager at Aberdeen Asset Management, said, "The threshold for a Bank of England rate hike is very high." He expects the Bank of England to keep interest rates unchanged for the remainder of the year. He stated that Bailey was "more definitive than I expected."

Despite Economic Uncertainty, Oil Prices Are Poised For A Robust Week

Despite Economic Uncertainty, Oil Prices

Feb 10, 2023 11:18

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On Friday, oil prices stayed stable despite mounting concerns about a U.S. economic slowdown and a sluggish rebound in China, but they were poised for substantial weekly gains as near-term supply remained curtailed as a result of outages in Turkey.


The world's top oil importer may take longer than anticipated to return to pre-pandemic levels of growth, based on Chinese inflation data that was less than anticipated.


An inversion in the yield curve, a typical indication of a slowdown, hit its deepest level since the 1980s, exerting additional pressure on the oil markets.


The likelihood of a slower-than-anticipated recovery in China, along with the possibility of a U.S. recession this year, could indicate a decline in oil consumption this year.


By 21:01 ET, Brent oil prices were unchanged at $84.25 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude futures increased 0.2% to $77.84 per barrel (02:01 GMT). Both contracts were expected to gain approximately 5.5% and 6.3% per week, respectively.


Crude prices recovered strongly from recent lows this week after a disastrous earthquake in Turkey disrupted oil flows from Iraq and also suspended exports from the Ceyhan terminal, forecasting tighter supply in portions of Europe, Asia and North America.


It is unknown when shipments from the Ceyhan terminal will restart, as several operators in the region have declared force majeure.


Saudi Arabia increased its official crude sales price to Asia, indicating that the world's top oil producer anticipates a revival in Chinese demand, which boosted oil markets.


Additionally, crude markets profited from the dollar's depreciation in the context of rising uncertainty on the future course of U.S. interest rates. While a number of Federal Reserve officials said that interest rates are likely to rise in the coming months, higher-than-anticipated weekly unemployment claims data bolstered optimism that a weakening labor market could prevent the Fed from raising rates.


Next week's U.S. inflation figures for January will provide additional information on the possible direction of U.S. monetary policy. While it is anticipated that inflation will have decreased from the previous month, it is still anticipated to be substantially above the Fed's yearly objective.


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