Cryptoverse: Bitcoin’s no longer the king of the swingers

There are several names for bitcoin. buzzy, seductive, perplexing, and even false. yet never monotonous.

But lately, it's been unsettlingly subdued.

The king of the swingers has been unusually stalling at approximately $20,000 and hasn't gone much higher than that since June.

This is bad news for exchanges and traders who make money off of bitcoin's wild price swings and gives ether, its archrival cryptocurrency, a chance to step up its game by switching to a leaner, meaner blockchain.

According to Martin Leinweber, digital asset product strategist at MarketVector, "Bitcoin is not dead, it's simply uninteresting right now, therefore traders are seeking for alternatives."

According to research company Coinglass, Bitcoin's average 30-day volatility, which measures how its price changes over a certain time period, has dropped to 2.7% from above 4% in early July.

Even during the most stressful months of the "crypto winter" of low prices, that figure has remained solidly below 5% in 2022, which is a change from the previous five years, when even times of lesser volatility were followed by surges as high as 7%.

Similar to this, an indicator from CryptoCompare, which calculates how much prices are anticipated to fluctuate by using bitcoin futures contracts, is now slightly over 77, down from around 90 at the beginning of the year.

In the past, Bitcoin has seen periods of lower volatility, often during times of depressed or declining values, with its price fluctuations frequently returning as trading activity builds up.

But this dip could be unique

According to Stéphane Ouellette, CEO of cryptocurrency derivatives firm FRNT Financial, "there has been a reasonably extended period of lower volatility; it's already beyond anything we've seen in even 2019 when these levels lasted roughly a quarter to a quarter-and-a-half."

Ether in high gear

As a result of bitcoin's low volatility, Leinweber at MarketVector saw a rise in trading for ether and its derivatives.

In fact, ether's price has increased 50% since the beginning of July while bitcoin's price has remained same. Ether is the No. 2 cryptocurrency, with a market worth of around $190 billion compared to bitcoin's $380 billion.

According to analytics company Messari, ether doesn't provide more price drama since it is far less volatile, with its peak volatility being just over 2% in March 2020, during the height of the COVID market crash.

However, it is now absorbing a lot of the cryptocurrency talk as it approaches its "Merge," which is anticipated to eventually occur later this month and include a fundamental change to a system where the production of new ether tokens is far less energy-intensive.

Crypto burned me

Narrower price fluctuations may seem to be a plus for long-term investors in conventional assets like stocks or bonds. But that's not the case for the majority of investors and key players in the bitcoin and cryptocurrency industries. For example, exchanges profit by collecting fees for transactions; as volatility declines, trading activity tends to disappear.

Stabler prices also provide dwindling opportunities for profit for cryptocurrency hedge funds, which typically trade on price fluctuations.

So what's behind the decrease in volatility of bitcoin?

One is that there has been an investor exodus from the larger crypto market, which means fewer individuals are eager to exchange their currencies.

With bitcoin plunging by nearly 60% and ether by roughly 55%, cryptocurrencies have had a terrible year as investors have sold risky assets across the board in response to increasing inflation. Significant meltdowns at two large coins and the collapse of a well-known lender have significantly reduced public trust in the industry.

According to statistics from Blockchain.com, during a 7-day period, the dollar worth of bitcoin trade volumes on significant exchanges ranged between $127 million and $142 million, which is the lowest level since October 2020. In a similar vein, statistics from the Block indicated that bitcoin futures trading is at its lowest levels since November 2020.

The biggest levels of interest in cryptocurrencies generally coexist with the highest levels of volatility, said Ouellette. "People are saying, "I don't really care about crypto right now," after being burnt."