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1. JPMorgan Chase: Expects the Fed to hold rates steady, with the vote to maintain the current rate expected to be 11-1, and Milan likely to vote against it. 2. Societe Generale: Expects the Fed to hold rates steady. Given that this meeting will not release a summary of economic projections or a dot plot, the market anticipates few policy changes. 3. Goldman Sachs: Expects the Fed to hold rates steady. The post-meeting statement may acknowledge improved employment data and rising inflation, but will maintain existing policy guidance. 4. MUFG: Expects the Fed to hold rates steady. Fed Governor Milan may abstain from voting on a rate cut, and the statement may explicitly mention increased upside risks to the inflation mandate. 5. Wells Fargo: Expects the Fed to hold rates steady. The statement may indicate that energy costs are keeping inflation high and weaken forward guidance, revising the wording regarding the magnitude and timing of further adjustments to the benchmark interest rate. 6. Morgan Stanley: Expects the Fed to hold rates steady. The statement is expected to change little, with the FOMC likely maintaining an accommodative bias, but emphasizing that high uncertainty means patience is needed in policymaking. 7. Deutsche Bank: Expects the Fed to hold rates steady, possibly removing the word "further" from the wording regarding "the magnitude and timing of further adjustments to the benchmark interest rate" to pave the way for future rate hikes. 8. Danske Bank: Expects the Fed to hold rates steady and may not provide clear forward guidance, but any cautious hints at restarting easing could trigger a decline in Treasury yields and a broad weakening of the dollar. 9. BNY Mellon: Expects the Fed to hold rates steady with very limited forward guidance, as the market has not yet priced in persistent inflation risks, giving the Fed room to temporarily ignore short-term inflationary pressures.On April 29th, the European Union announced temporary measures to mitigate some of the impacts on businesses caused by the sharp rise in energy prices due to the Middle East conflict. The EU executive body stated that member states can provide up to 70% compensation to companies in the agriculture, fisheries, or transport sectors for additional costs incurred due to rising fuel or fertilizer prices caused by the crisis. The European Commission added that energy-intensive companies eligible for temporary price relief can also receive assistance of up to 70% of their electricity bills. This framework, known as the "Interim State Assistance Framework for the Middle East Crisis," will be in effect until December 31, 2026. The European Commission stated: "While the transition to a cleaner economy remains a long-term solution to protect EU companies from global energy shocks, the Interim State Assistance Framework for the Middle East Crisis allows member states to take immediate action to ensure that the growth of the most affected companies does not suffer irreparable damage due to the current crisis."European Commission: Businesses can receive up to €50,000 in aid.On April 29th, John Payne, senior economist at Dun & Bradstreet, a business information, data, and analytics service, stated in a report that while the Bank of England was initially expected to cut interest rates in 2026, global supply shocks have altered the banks policy outlook. He expects the Bank of England to maintain interest rates at 3.75% due to the significant rise in global energy and other commodity prices. Payne stated, "Even with the UKs relatively low direct dependence on imports from the Gulf region, it will still face inflation spillover effects, with inflation potentially reaching 3.5% by the third quarter. Maintaining interest rates at current levels will reflect the central banks cautious stance on inflation." He added that recent evidence of resilience in the UK economy has reduced the need for a rate cut.The European Commission: Under interim rules, member states can provide up to 70% compensation to agricultural, fishery, and road transport companies for losses caused by rising fuel and fertilizer prices.

Crypto lender BlockFi files for Chapter 11

Alice Wang

Nov 29, 2022 15:36

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BlockFi, situated in New Jersey, claimed in a court document that it owed money to more than 100,000 creditors. It named FTX, a cryptocurrency exchange that is due $275 million on a loan from earlier this year, as its second-largest creditor.

MARTHA REYES-HULME, HEAD OF RESEARCH, BEQUANT, LONDON, COMMENTS

In the brief history of our business, the bankruptcy of BlockFi is a sad chapter that has made participants more aware of risk management, counterparty risk, and governance. Diversification has traditionally been used by our clients to reduce exchange risk, but lately we've noticed a lot of them pulling back temporarily in favor of better long-term asset protection strategies, particularly in the area of custody. With them, we are collaborating closely. In the end, everyone will benefit more from it. Even in these trying times, there is still interest in joining, which is encouraging, as well as interest from mainstream institutions that came to our conference last week.

Senior Director of Fitch Ratings in London, Monsur Hussain

"BlockFi's Chapter 11 reorganization highlights considerable asset contagion risks related to the crypto industry, as well as perhaps inadequate risk management methods. Restructuring procedures can take a long time; eight years after the operation's failure, Mt. Gox's creditors are still waiting to be compensated.

TORONTO'S MARK CONNORS, 3iQ DIGITAL ASSET MANAGEMENT

"Leveraged tactics are more vulnerable during a moment of unwinding and consolidation, which is where we are right now. I don't think many people were shocked by the BlockFi filing, which is important since we're attempting to sort the wheat from the chaff. BlockFi obtained a $250 million loan from FTX in the second quarter, probably out of self-interest to support the overleveraged Alameda. Therefore, today's behavior was expected.


Institutional investment is currently on hold as a result of this. What failed will be the first thing to be evaluated. We think it's the centralized, unregulated entities. Institutions will therefore reflect and ask themselves, "Did we invest in the wrong people at the VC stage?" That will probably receive a resounding "yes." Does this imply that Ethereum and Bitcoin, the two key protocols that make up roughly 60% of the digital asset market, have flaws? No institutional investor can claim that those protocols fell short or are no longer as promising as they were prior to the FTX debacle. Institutions are still interested, but regulators must outline the rules of the game so that institutions can comply.


There exist logical (crypto) financing models. The decentralized financing models were collateralized properly and are still in place. Certain centralized models didn't. I believe the models who have weak lungs are the ones who fail first. You had better understand very well where the 18% yield that a corporation offers you is coming from.


"FTX US, I believe, is BlockFi's second-largest creditor. But the real question is, was that in FTT tokens or in cash? You would have physical assets or U.S. currency in other bankruptcies. Although we have no idea if they loaned (FTT) to BlockFi, our inquiries are valid.

RESEARCH ANALYST CONOR RYDER, KAIKO, DUBLIN

"The BlockFi filing is the most recent in a series of FTX-related contagion occurrences, and it may also be the ongoing effects of Celsius/Three Arrows Capital last summer. Another instance of poor risk management at a period of rising prices, as the crypto winter came and exposed those who assumed the most counterparty risk.


"From the perspective of the customer, it serves as a further caution to be wary of any cryptocurrency yield products that are being offered, especially those that seem too good to be true. The biggest warning sign right now that a business is taking on more risk with your assets should be that.


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