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International oil prices rose for the third consecutive trading day. A chart provides a quick overview of the pre-market conversion of domestic and international crude oil prices.Spot gold and silver traded in a volatile range. A chart provides a quick overview of the pre-market prices of precious metals, converted between domestic and international prices.As of 8:30 AM Beijing time, spot platinum rose 0.43% and spot palladium rose 0.37%.The yield on Japans 5-year government bonds fell 3 basis points to 1.92%.On July 15th, CICC Research Report stated that the seasonally adjusted CPI in the United States fell by 0.4% month-on-month in June, and the year-on-year increase fell back to 3.5%; the core CPI showed zero month-on-month growth and rose by 2.6% year-on-year, both lower than market expectations. The decline in energy prices is the main reason for the cooling of inflation. Looking ahead, the situation between the United States and Iran has escalated again, and the outlook for energy inflation is subject to fluctuations. At the same time, the AI inflation effect is gradually emerging. The mismatch between supply and demand of upstream hardware, the price increase of software and peripheral products, and the boost to aggregate demand from AI capital expenditure may all make core inflation more sticky. In terms of policy, the cooling of inflation in June supports the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged at the July meeting, but Wallers recent statements show [1] that the Federal Reserve is reassessing the possibility of "precautionary rate hikes". We maintain our baseline judgment of no rate hikes this year, but suggest that the threshold for rate hikes has already decreased. Once one or two overheated inflation data appear, it may prompt the Federal Reserve to further discuss the option of raising interest rates.

Crypto Market Daily Highlights – ETH and SOL Lead a Bullish Top Ten

Cory Russell

Oct 24, 2022 15:10

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With 90 minutes (UTC) left in the session, the top 10 cryptos are seeing a bullish Sunday session. The top two are ethereum (ETH) and solana (SOL). While avoiding sub-$19,000 for a second session, BTC dropped short of $20,000 for the sixteenth straight day despite the strong session.


The lowering bets of a 75 basis point Fed rate rise in December were left to give a strong close to the week since external market pressures were lacking.


News that FOMC members wanted to talk about less aggressive policy changes broke on Friday. Mary Daly, a member of the FOMC, also expressed support for riskier investments. Daly said that it is appropriate to think about easing back prior to the FOMC blackout period, which should prevent the economy from becoming a Fed-fueled recession.


Janet Yellen, a former chair of the Federal Reserve and US Treasury Secretary, sought to calm market anxiety over inflation by stating that there was no evidence for it to become ingrained in the US economy.


The talk on Friday reduced expectations for a 75-basis point rate increase in December and seems to be on track to give the cryptocurrency market its longest winning run since mid-September—three days.


The likelihood of rate increases in November and December, according to the FedWatch Tool, are 87.5% and 48.7%, respectively, as of this morning. The probability of a 75-basis point increase in December was 69.8% a week ago.


Prior to the US PMI data for October, Q3 GDP results from China will get attention.


Given the FOMC's stance of policy blackout until November 3, economic data might result in policy uncertainty. Positive headline and sub-component statistics may revive hopes for a December 75-basis point increase.


The NASDAQ 100 Mini is anticipated to set the tone. A optimistic start to the week is indicated by the decline in expectations of a hawkish December move, however the markets will need to manage the Chinese figures.

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