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On August 29th, StoneX market analyst Fawad Razaqzada stated that Warshs speech on Friday night was considered quite hawkish. Regarding forward guidance, Warsh said what the market expected him to say: he doesnt believe in forward guidance and therefore refused to pre-commit to a September rate hike. However, this didnt stop the market from speculating that a rate hike might indeed be back on the table. Regarding inflation, Warsh stated that combating inflation remains a clear priority and elaborated on this in detail, but he also added that he was confident core inflation was moving towards the Feds target. Overall, his speech was more hawkish than the market expected. During Warshs Jackson Hole speech, the market significantly repriced the September Fed decision, with the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike jumping from 30% to approximately 50%. Before the September Fed meeting, there will be a non-farm payroll report and a CPI inflation report, along with some other minor data releases. Under the new chairman, the Fed has become more data-dependent. Given that recent US employment reports have consistently missed expectations and by a large margin, any further weakening could severely undermine market expectations for a September rate hike.On August 29th, according to multiple foreign media reports, on August 28th local time, Chinese chipmaker Changxin Memory Technologies Co., Ltd. (CXMT) filed a lawsuit with the U.S. Department of Defense, demanding its removal from a blacklist. According to Bloomberg, CXMT stated that its chips are designed for civilian and commercial use, not military purposes, and claimed it was wrongly blacklisted. The lawsuit has been filed in the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia, with U.S. Defense Secretary Peter Hegses listed as a defendant. In a statement released after filing the lawsuit, CXMT stated that the company is not a military enterprise and that its reputation and business interests have continued to suffer since it was first blacklisted in January 2025. The company added that this action was taken to protect its business interests. According to Reuters, the U.S. Department of Defense stated in a statement that, according to policy, the Department of Defense does not comment on pending or ongoing litigation.August 29th - The 2026 China International Big Data Industry Expo (Big Data Expo) is currently being held in Guiyang, Guizhou. Today, a representative from the National Data Administration stated at the "Data and Computing Integration Driving the Future" exchange event that the computing power network, water network, new power grid, next-generation communication network, urban underground pipe network, and logistics network form a deeply coupled, mutually empowering, and collaboratively supporting organic whole. It was explained that the computing power network, acting as the "brain," assists in the intelligent scheduling of new power grids and the consumption of new energy; collaborates with the next-generation communication network to promote data flow, model training, and application innovation; empowers water networks to achieve accurate forecasting of watershed water conditions and dynamic allocation of water resources; supports urban underground pipe networks to drive real-time monitoring, risk warning, and emergency response for lifeline projects such as gas, drainage, and heating; and connects with the logistics network to promote cost reduction and efficiency improvement across the entire supply chain. The latest data released at the conference shows that as of the end of July, the total scale of intelligent computing nationwide reached 2.45 million PFLOPS (FP16), and the eight national computing power hubs and three computing-electricity collaborative development zones have built intelligent computing scales, accounting for over 85% of the national total.August 29th – The 2026 China International Big Data Industry Expo is being held in Guiyang, Guizhou. Today, an official from the National Data Administration stated at the expo that the rapid application of big data models across various industries is driving a rapid increase in the volume of word token calls in my country, resulting in explosive market demand. Liu Liehong, Director of the National Data Administration, stated at a word token-themed exchange activity that the stronger the models comprehensive capabilities, the higher the efficiency of word token production, and the better the logic, accuracy, and quality of the output content. Word tokens provide an important benchmark for the measurement, pricing, transaction, and settlement of artificial intelligence services. Currently, the word token industry chain has gathered diverse entities such as computing power leasing companies, model manufacturers, data service providers, and professional technical service institutions, and different types of "word token factories" have evolved in practice.The Iranian government stated that it is committed to resolutely resisting US sanctions, and that diplomacy and defense are "complementary and inseparable."

Crude oil trading reminder: good news continues! The United States has not put in a reserve plan. Will U.S. oil use non-agricultural to overcome the 80 mark?

LEO

Oct 26, 2021 11:00

During the Asian session on Friday (October 8), U.S. crude oil hovered around US$78.70 per barrel. Oil prices stopped falling and rebounded on Thursday. U.S. oil rose nearly 2.5% and Bursa oil rose more than 2.0%, as the U.S. Department of Energy said on Thursday, "Currently," there is no plan to release strategic oil reserves to curb the rise in gasoline prices.



In the days, we will focus on China's September Caixin Service Industry PMI, US September non-agricultural employment data, US President Biden's speech on the September employment report, and the announcement of the total number of drilling rigs in the United States for the week ended October 8 at 1:00 on Saturday.

Bullish factors affecting oil prices


[U.S. stocks closed higher as concerns about debt ceiling and energy crisis eased]

The U.S. stock market rose on Thursday as the U.S. debt ceiling negotiations have made progress and concerns about the energy crisis in Europe have eased. The S&P 500 index rose by 1.5% at one time, and then gave up nearly half of the gains. The raw materials and consumer discretionary sectors led the gains; the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield climbed to 1.57%, the highest since June. The Starck 100 index rose 0.9%.

The bipartisan leaders of the Senate reached an agreement to temporarily raise the debt ceiling until early December, boosting the market. The Chicago Options Volatility Index fell 7% to 19.5, lower than the one-year average of 21.2. In addition, natural gas prices fell on Thursday, indicating that Russia may Increase supply to Europe.

Chris Gaffney, President of TIAA Bank’s Global Markets, said, “The market volatility that we have seen this week-one day up and one day down, actually reflects the news cycle and the different news we receive.” The next focus is the US non-agricultural employment announcement on Friday. Data, this may reveal clues to the Fed's cut-down schedule. Fed Chairman Powell said that he hopes employment will have "good" growth, and more and more people are optimistic that this report will show this situation.

[The number of people claiming unemployment benefits for the first time in the United States last week fell more than expected]

The general decline in the number of people applying for unemployment benefits for the first time in the United States last week indicated that the labor market continued to improve. According to data released by the Ministry of Labor on Thursday, as of the week ending October 2, the number of people claiming unemployment benefits for the first time totaled 326,000, a decrease of 38,000 from the previous week. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expected the median to fall to 348,000. As of the week of September 25, the number of continuous claims for unemployment benefits decreased to 2.7 million.

As the economy improves and companies lay off fewer employees, employers are now more focused on recruiting and retaining existing personnel. Moreover, although the United States continues to recover the jobs lost at the beginning of the epidemic, the sharp rebound in demand has exceeded the company's hiring capacity, making the already stretched supply chain even more tense. The tight supply chain has led to a slowdown in production, and even prompted some companies to temporarily lay off their employees, causing the number of people claiming unemployment benefits for the first time each week to become more turbulent.

[The United States says there is currently no strategic oil reserve plan]

According to a report in the Financial Times on Wednesday, the US Secretary of Energy proposed the possibility of releasing strategic oil reserves. In response, the US Department of Energy issued a statement on Thursday: “The Department of Energy continues to monitor global energy market supply and will cooperate with us. Cooperation agencies to determine if and when action is required. To protect the American people, all the tools in the toolbox are considered, but there is no plan to take action at this time." A spokesperson for the US Department of Energy stated that it did not seek a ban on crude oil Export.

Goldman Sachs said that if the United States puts the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) on the market, it can only bring the risk of a $3 drop in the average Brent crude oil price of $90 at the end of this year that the bank predicts. The United States intends to put oil reserves up to 60 million barrels.

In addition, if the export of U.S. crude oil is banned, "it will greatly disrupt the U.S. oil market and may have a bullish effect on U.S. retail fuel prices based on Brent oil prices."

In an interview with Bloomberg TV, chief oil analyst Amrita Sen said that the Biden administration is increasingly publicly expressing concerns about high energy prices. "The key thing to remember is that the Biden administration is very eager to give consumers cheap gasoline. Citi said that OPEC+'s accelerated production increase is "only a matter of time", especially if the price of oil exceeds US$80 per barrel.

[European natural gas prices hit record, many British energy companies closed down]

The market focus now returns to the shortage of global natural gas supply, which is bound to increase the crude oil demand for power generation this winter. Recently, European natural gas prices have reached a record level, with an increase of 60% in just two days. The price of natural gas in the UK soared to a record high on October 6, local time, the price of natural gas in the UK rose by 37% (to 400 pence/them), setting a record high in the wholesale price of natural gas. Industry insiders pointed out that high demand for natural gas and reduced supply are the reasons for the surge in wholesale prices.

Industry insiders call on the government to help companies and industries keep functioning. The UK's energy-intensive user organization, which represents steel, chemical and fertilizer companies, said that soaring costs have caused steel production to stop “at times of peak demand”. In the past few weeks, the high wholesale price of natural gas has led to the suspension of many British energy companies and the suspension of production in many industries.

[The market waits for non-agricultural fuel prices to rise]

The US September non-agricultural data will be released in the evening of the day. The market expects that the US non-agricultural employment population growth after the September seasonal adjustment is expected to be between 250,000 and 700,000, the unemployment rate is expected to be between 4.8% and 5.3%, and the average hourly wage growth rate is expected to be introduced. Within 4.5%-4.7%.

JPMorgan Chase expects that the number of non-agricultural employment in the United States will increase by 575,000 in September, and the unemployment rate will drop to 5%. The factor driving the forecast higher than the consensus level is the expected rebound in employment in the leisure and hotel industries.

The economists of ING International Group believe that the main event this week is the September non-agricultural employment data in the United States and will finalize the Fed’s scheduled reduction of balance sheet resolution. Raising interest rates will support the U.S. dollar. Technically, the U.S. dollar is about to usher in a major breakthrough, and the strong US non-agricultural report will consolidate this trend.

Negative factors affecting oil prices


[Iranian Foreign Minister said that negotiations on the Iranian nuclear agreement will be resumed in Vienna soon]

According to foreign media reports on October 6, Iranian Foreign Minister Hussein Amir Abdullahyan said during a meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov in Moscow on Wednesday, local time, that negotiations aimed at resuming the Iranian nuclear agreement would be very difficult. Restart soon in Vienna. The media quoted Amir Abdulahiyan as saying that Tehran has received signals from Washington that it is again interested in implementing the Iran nuclear agreement.

According to a French media report on October 6, Iranian Foreign Minister Amir Abdullahhiyan said on Wednesday that he expected negotiations on the Iranian nuclear agreement to resume in Austria soon. After meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov, he told reporters: We are currently conducting final consultations on this matter and will resume negotiations in Vienna soon. Lavrov said that the international community is waiting for the United States to re-fulfil its legal obligations in the nuclear agreement and end illegal restrictions on Iran and all its trading partners.



On the whole, the US Department of Energy has not yet released a plan to release its strategic oil reserves, which has allowed oil prices to stop falling and rebound. In addition, the market expects that even if the US continues to increase oil prices, the increase in demand will not cause excessive fluctuations in oil prices. , The upward trend of oil prices may continue; the market is waiting for non-agricultural data in the evening, and it is currently expected to increase non-agricultural employment by 500,000. If the data is better than expected, US Oil is expected to break the 80 mark.

At 8:15 GMT+8, US crude oil is now quoted at US$78.70/barrel.

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