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June 10th - Seema Shah, Chief Global Strategist at Principal Asset Management, stated that while US inflation remains uncomfortably high at 4%, weaker-than-expected core data did alleviate some pressure. With rising energy prices being the primary driver and housing costs easing, we havent yet seen clear signs of a broader second-round effect. This should allow the Federal Reserve to remain patient. Although the market seems to have overpriced further rate hikes this year, that risk remains, and todays data did not eliminate it.June 10 – As expected, the Bank of Canada kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2.25% today. In its statement, the Bank of Canada noted that economic activity remained weak after a surprise 0.1% annualized decline in GDP in the first quarter (the third contraction in the past four quarters). The Bank of Canada avoided using the term "recession." The bank expects GDP to return to growth in the second quarter, "but even with some rebound, the economy is expected to remain in a state of overcapacity." Economists said that overcapacity (or economic slack) should help curb inflationary pressures.June 10 – The Bank of Canada kept its main interest rate unchanged on Wednesday, in line with market expectations, and stated that there is currently no sufficient evidence that rising energy prices are driving broad-based inflation. Bank of Canada Governor Macklem reiterated that the bank would not hesitate to raise interest rates to control inflation if necessary. Wednesdays decision marks the fifth consecutive time the Bank of Canada has kept its main policy rate at 2.25%, as several factors have complicated the economic outlook. The war in Iran has caused gasoline prices to soar, putting pressure on household budgets, although Canada, as a net exporter of crude oil, has benefited from increased revenue. The central bank stated, "To date, there is no sufficient evidence that high energy prices have been widely passed on to other consumer prices. The Governing Council will continue to ignore the short-term effects of the war on overall inflation, but will not allow rising energy prices to develop into persistent inflation."US Senate Majority Leader Thune: Trumps nomination for Director of Intelligence will be a major decision.US Senate Republican Leader Thune: Most Republican senators want to complete the mission in Iran.

Crude Oil Price Prediction: Volatile Movement in the Crude Oil Markets Will Continue

Alina Haynes

Jul 20, 2022 12:07

截屏2022-07-20 上午11.54.21.png 

 

The price of West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil has fluctuated wildly as it appears that the $100 barrier presents major psychological resistance. The 50 Day EMA, which is just over the $105 level, must be watched if we are able to break above that level. In addition, there is a ton of supply there, plus a prior trendline that may serve as resistance. In summary, I think this market will continue to be quite agitated and competitive in both directions. You must thus use caution while choosing the size of your position.

 

Since Brent markets are located right below an uptrend line, they are also quite loud. A lot of people will pay close attention to that uptrend line, therefore I believe that any symptoms of exhaustion will likely be seized upon as the first ones to appear on the chart. I believe that the 50 Day EMA, which is positioned around the $108.76 level and declining, also presents a considerable amount of resistance.

 

As we try to decide whether or not we are going to continue to rally or if we are going to focus on the idea of a global slowdown from an economic standpoint, I believe it's only a matter of time before we pull back, perhaps just to stay in the same range that we have been in for a while. This is typical for this market. Right now, it appears that we are merely bouncing off the 200 Day EMA and may be attempting to settle into a new range.

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