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The camp predicting an October rate cut: 1. TD Securities: Canadian inflation and retail sales data support a rate cut by the Bank of Canada in October, but the governments expansionary fiscal policy may lead to a pause in rate cuts later. 2. Wall Street Journal survey: 10 economists expect the Bank of Canada to cut rates in October and then pause for a period, while 2 economists believe there will be no cut in October, but a cut in December. 3. CIBC: Significant spare capacity exists in the Canadian economy, which should put downward pressure on inflation, thus the Bank of Canada may cut rates in October. 4. Corpays chief market strategist: US-Canada trade tensions indicate that the clouds over the Canadian economy have not yet dissipated, and further rate cuts by the Bank of Canada would be wise. 5. Manulife Wealth & Asset Management: A weak job market, sluggish investment, and trade uncertainty continue to give the Bank of Canada reason to cut rates in October. 6. National Bank of Canada Financial Corporation: To address the spare capacity in the economy, the Bank of Canada needs to cut rates by 25 basis points in both October and December. The camp advocating against an October rate cut: 1. Commerzbank: A December rate cut might be more appropriate for the Bank of Canada. If the Bank of Canada keeps rates unchanged tonight, the Canadian dollar may rise in the short term. 2. Scotiabank: The Bank of Canada may be concerned about upward cost pressures from tariffs; its September meeting minutes indicated that inflation risks have not yet been eliminated. 3. RSM Chief Economist: With core CPI still hovering around 3%, the Bank of Canada may hold off on rates in October and cut rates in December.Wells Fargo raised its price target for United Parcel Service (UPS.N) to $96 from $91.Verizon (VZ.N): Capital expenditures in 2025 are expected to remain at or below the previously estimated range of $17.5 billion to $18.5 billion.Caterpillar (CAT.N): Sales and revenue for the fourth quarter of 2025 are expected to grow strongly compared to the fourth quarter of 2024.Caterpillar (CAT.N): It expects new tariffs to amount to approximately $1.6 billion to $1.75 billion in 2025.

China's Perspective And Supply Fears After The Turkey Earthquake Boost Oil Prices

Skylar Williams

Feb 07, 2023 14:46

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Oil prices increased for a second consecutive session on Tuesday, pushed by optimism on the recovery of demand in China and concerns over supply shortages caused by the closure of a major export terminal in Turkey following an earthquake.


By 3:00 GMT, Brent crude futures increased 82 cents, or 1.01%, to $81.81 per barrel, whereas West Texas Intermediate futures rose 82 cents, or 1.10%, to $74.93 per barrel.


Edward Moya, an analyst at OANDA, commented, "Crude prices are increasing due to anticipation that China's economic rebound will gain traction and supply disruptions caused by the earthquake that rocked Turkey."


The International Energy Agency (IEA) anticipates that China will account for half of this year's global oil demand growth, the agency's head stated on Sunday, adding that jet fuel demand is soaring.


Saudi Arabia, the largest oil exporter in the world, increased the price of its flagship crude for Asian clients for the first time in six months in anticipation of a rebound in oil demand, particularly from China.


After a strong earthquake struck the region, operations at the 1 million barrel per day (bpd) oil export facility in Ceyhan, Turkey, were suspended. The BTC terminal, which sells crude oil from Azerbaijan to foreign markets, will be closed from February 6 to 8.


Daniel Hynes, senior commodity analyst at ANZ bank in Sydney, cited the suspension of Phase 1 of the Johan Sverdrup oil field in Norway's portion of the North Sea as a major price mover.


Wednesday's speech by U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will be eagerly monitored by the oil markets, analysts say. Typically, interest rate increases boost the dollar, which could increase the price of crude for non-American purchasers.


Tina Teng, an analyst at CMC Markets, said, "The comeback in oil prices is more of a cautious move ahead of Fed Powell's speech tomorrow, when the Fed chairman may provide additional hints on the future rate hike path."


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