EUR/USD
1.16690
0.023%
Gold
4619.36
0.481%
Oil
60.232
0.982%
USD/JPY
158.833
0.427%
GBP/USD
1.34700
0.035%
GBP/JPY
213.953
0.469%
Real-time News
On January 13th, Jeff Schulze, Head of Economics and Market Strategy at ClearBridge Investments, stated that while investors may cheer the CPI report as further evidence of cooling inflation, the Federal Reserve will likely remain on the sidelines due to the short time lag between the data and the government shutdown, and the inherent uncertainty. This report is positive for risk assets and increases the likelihood of the Fed providing additional monetary policy support in 2026.January 13th - Nick Timiraos, the Feds mouthpiece, stated that the December Consumer Price Index (CPI) is unlikely to change the Feds current wait-and-see attitude, as officials are likely to want to see more evidence that inflation is stabilizing and gradually declining before cutting interest rates. The Fed has lowered its benchmark interest rate in the last three meetings, most recently in December, even though inflation stopped declining last year. Officials lowered rates due to concerns about a potentially larger-than-expected slowdown in the labor market. For Fed officials to resume rate cuts, they may need to see new evidence that labor market conditions are deteriorating or that price pressures are easing. The latter may require at least several more months of inflation data to become apparent.January 13th - Morgan Stanley Wealth Management Chief Economic Strategist Alan Zentner commented on US inflation: "Weve seen this before—inflation hasnt picked up again, but it remains above target. Cost pass-through from tariffs remains limited, but housing affordability hasnt improved. Todays inflation report is insufficient to provide the necessary justification for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates later this month."On January 13th, Valentin Malinoff, Head of G10 FX Research and Strategy at Crédit Agricole, believes that given the markets muted reaction to the CPI data, traders should buy the dollar when it falls from current levels. The muted market reaction further confirms that many negative factors related to the Federal Reserve have already been priced into the dollar, as expectations of two rate cuts in 2026 have already been priced in. It is also worth noting that even with the recent decline in the dollar due to heightened concerns about fiscal dominance, the market has not anticipated the timing of Fed rate cuts. Therefore, the dollars real interest rate advantage relative to the euro and pound is not fully reflected and is undervalued.January 13th - Art Hogan, Chief Market Strategist at B. Riley Wealth, commented on the US CPI report: Todays CPI report brought some positive news, with December inflation being more moderate than the market had previously expected. Overall CPI rose 2.7% year-on-year, in line with expectations; while core inflation was 2.6%, slightly lower than the markets original forecast of 2.7%. If this trend continues, it will provide the Federal Reserve with some policy flexibility to cut interest rates in the first quarter.
