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February 21st - According to the Yellow River Conservancy Commission of the Ministry of Water Resources, the frozen section of the Yellow River in Inner Mongolia began thawing this morning (February 21st) up to the Sanshenggong Hub, 18 days earlier than usual, marking the start of the critical thawing period for the Yellow River. The thawing process was generally smooth, with no major incidents reported.The China Earthquake Networks Center officially determined that a 3.6-magnitude earthquake occurred in Haixi Prefecture, Qinghai Province at 13:24 on February 21, with a focal depth of 10 kilometers.February 21 – According to a Nikkei report, a senior Japanese government official stated that the US Supreme Courts ruling that Trumps retaliatory tariffs were invalid will not affect Japans first round of investment projects in the United States. The official stated that these projects, funded by Japans $550 billion investment commitment (in exchange for tariff reductions), are necessary for Japans economic growth and economic security, and also expressed a positive outlook on future investments beyond the second round and subsequent projects.February 21st - According to data from online platforms, the total box office revenue (including pre-sales) for films released during the 2026 Spring Festival has exceeded 4 billion yuan. "Pegasus 3," "Silent Assassination," and "Boonie Bears: The Big Adventure" ranked in the top three.On February 21, South Korea stated that the US Supreme Courts rejection of President Trumps emergency powers to impose tariffs would not undermine the broader trade agreement reached with the United States. The South Korean Minister of Trade, Industry and Energy convened an emergency meeting on Saturday to assess the ruling. In a statement, the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy said the ruling invalidates the current 15% reciprocal tariffs applicable to South Korean goods. While the ruling increases uncertainty for exports to the US, the overall framework of export conditions guaranteed under the Korea-US tariff agreement will remain unchanged. The ministry pledged to take comprehensive measures to protect national interests and South Korean businesses. The ministry stated that industry-specific tariffs imposed on automobiles and steel under other laws remain in effect and are unaffected by the court ruling.

Changing Expectations of the Fed’s Forward Guidance Pressure Gold Lower

Jimmy Khan

Feb 22, 2023 15:59

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Longer-Term Tight Monetary Policy

At the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium the previous year, the Federal Reserve made its first remarks regarding its forward guidance. Particularly, Chairman Powell's keynote address struck the American people with the news that the Fed intended to hike rates and maintain them at elevated levels until it reached its 2% inflation target.


The Federal Reserve published its economic forecasts for 2023–2025, including the most recent dot plot, following the December FOMC meeting. By asking 17 Fed officials to vote on future monetary policy, the dot plot is the Fed's method for forecasting future interest rates. The December dot plot showed a resounding consensus that the Fed will increase rates to a goal of slightly over 5% and maintain them there for the whole 2023 calendar year.


The Federal Reserve has maintained its stance, but market participants' expectations have recently changed from skepticism to acceptance that the Fed is unlikely to let off on its extraordinarily hawkish monetary policy. This means maintaining those high rates over the entire year and continuing rate increases.


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