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Gold
4151.93
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Oil
58.725
0.481%
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156.315
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1.32359
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206.902
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Real-time News
The Israel Defense Forces say they have struck Hezbollah infrastructure in southern Lebanon.On November 27th, JPMorgan Chases Head of European Interest Rates Strategy Research stated on Thursday that the UKs tax increase budget has reduced near-term uncertainty but will not change the banks expectation of rising government bond yields next year. Francis Diamond said, "The short-term uncertainty surrounding the budget, and its potential impact on the UK government bond market, has been eliminated because there is more room for maneuver." He also stated, "In the medium term, I think there is always a challenge… as the 2029 general election approaches, it remains questionable whether these tax increases will achieve their intended goals." Currently, investors welcome Reeves greater policy space but also warn of uncertainty surrounding the budgets outcome—as most tax increases will take effect later rather than in the short term. Diamond stated that the tax increases in the budget do not change his view that the Bank of England will cut interest rates three more times before June next year, then maintain the policy rate at 3.25%. Furthermore, he still expects the yield on 10-year UK government bonds to rise from the current slightly below 4.50% to 4.75% by the end of 2026.November 27th - The latest minutes of the European Central Banks (ECB) meeting revealed that policymakers were in no hurry to cut interest rates at last months meeting, as uncertainty remained exceptionally high and further rate cuts might not be necessary. The ECB kept interest rates unchanged at its meeting last month, stating that policy was in a "good position" because the economy showed resilience and inflation was stable at the target level. This bolstered investor confidence that further rate cuts would not be made this year, with the market now viewing the probability of a further rate cut in 2026 at only one-third. The minutes noted that "the option of waiting for more information remains highly valuable, and the current level of policy rates should be considered sufficiently robust to handle shocks." Some officials even believed that the ECB might not cut rates again. The minutes stated, "There is a view that the rate-cutting cycle has ended, as the current favorable outlook is likely to persist unless risks materialize."November 27th - The European Central Bank (ECB) released the minutes of its October meeting. Analysts pointed out that there was nothing new or unknown in the minutes. The ECB consistently prioritizes option and flexibility. Under the current circumstances, data has not forced them to accelerate the pace of interest rate cuts. However, the argument about the end of the rate-cutting cycle is intriguing. Analysts believe that the current situation remains unstable, therefore they do not interpret this statement as a position they will stubbornly adhere to.ECB meeting minutes: Policy transmission was smooth and effective.
