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On May 22, the National Data Development Research Institute, under the National Data Administration, released a report titled "Research on the Development Characteristics and Paths of Commercial Data Service Enterprises." The report points out that while domestic commercial data service enterprises have formed a preliminary industrial ecosystem, they still have shortcomings in areas such as capitalization, global service capabilities, and competitiveness in high-end markets. There is an urgent need to increase capital market support to help the industry achieve high-quality development. To this end, the National Data Development Research Institute proposes three suggestions: First, strengthen government guidance, improve the public data supply guarantee system, refine the revenue distribution mechanism, and stimulate the enthusiasm of all parties in supplying and using data; second, promote the industrys own quality and efficiency improvement, guiding enterprises to abandon low-end homogeneous competition and focus on improving professional capabilities and service quality; third, increase capital market support, improve the valuation and evaluation mechanism for data enterprises, and facilitate financing channels to provide sufficient capital support for high-quality enterprises R&D innovation, scale expansion, and overseas expansion.On May 22, the Ministry of Public Security announced plans to revise the "Rules for Electronic Data Collection in Criminal Cases Handled by Public Security Organs," and has drafted the "Rules for Electronic Data Collection by Public Security Organs (Draft for Public Comment)," soliciting public opinions. The draft clarifies that in electronic data collection, if it is necessary to input the account password of a smart terminal or other device related to the case, the electronic data holder should generally provide the account password first. If the holder does not provide the password, the process should be approved by the head of a public security organ at the county level or above, and appropriate measures can be taken to obtain the account password after clearly informing the electronic data holder or having a witness present.On May 22, the Ministry of Transport held a Party Group meeting. The meeting emphasized the need to stay aligned with the strategic goals of building a science and technology powerhouse and a transportation powerhouse by 2035. It stressed accelerating the construction of an intelligent, integrated, and three-dimensional transportation network; deepening the large-scale innovative application of artificial intelligence; overcoming key core technologies; completing a number of major innovation projects; building a group of strategic scientific and technological forces; and accelerating the integration, safety improvement, digitalization, and green transformation of transportation to provide strong scientific and technological support for improving a modern, comprehensive transportation system.Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson: The crisis currently facing our region and the world stems directly from the United States illegal and capricious withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in May 2018.May 22 – As the price shock triggered by the Iran war begins to spread from energy costs to a wider range of sectors, economists have raised their forecasts for U.S. inflation and postponed the timeline for the next Federal Reserve rate cut. They expect the core PCE index to rise higher than previously anticipated, with both inflation indicators remaining above 3% by the end of the year. Economists are evenly divided on whether the Fed will cut rates in December, whereas a previous survey predicted an October cut. Luke Tilly, chief economist at Wilmington Trust Corp., said this feels familiar; the Fed and markets are worried that soaring energy prices will trigger inflation, just as they worried about tariffs triggering inflation last year. Given already weak consumer spending, people are more likely to offset higher gas prices by cutting spending on other items. The survey shows that economists still believe U.S. consumer spending and GDP will grow by about 2% this year, roughly in line with previous forecasts, with the probability of a recession in the next 12 months falling to 25%. In addition, economists have slightly raised their forecasts for job growth in the U.S. this year, but still expect the unemployment rate to peak at 4.5% in the third quarter.

British Pound Forecast: GBP/USD at Risk of Further Losses as the UK Economy Weakens

Drake Hampton

Apr 24, 2022 10:21

There was considerable risk-off sentiment and bad UK economic data pushing the British Pound down substantially in its final day of the week against the U.S. dollar on Friday. A 1.44 percent daily decline to 1.2840 and a 1.68 percent five-session decline brought GBP/USD to its lowest level since September 2020 during the New York afternoon market hours.

 

Various UK reports on Friday morning, including retail sales, manufacturing output and services sector activity for March, surprised on the downside, a sign that the recovery is faltering and that the economy is starting the second quarter on a weaker footing as surging price pressures curtail demand.

 

The Bank of England (BoE) may not be as forceful in its fight against inflation as other central banks given the fast slowdown in GDP. This indicates that we may only witness moderate interest rate rises in the coming months, rather than front-loaded hikes such as those entertained by the Federal Reserve, which is now seen boosting borrowing costs by 50 bps at its meetings in May, June and maybe July.

 

Since March, the U.S. 2-year yield has risen 128 basis points to 2.72 percent as a result of the Fed's hawkish repricing of policy. At 66 basis points higher to 1.70 percent during the same time period the 2-year gilt has also moved higher, but its rise has been more limited and has increased the US-UK interest rate differential.

 

Looking ahead, there is little reason to be enthusiastic about sterling. The possibility that the UK economy would contract in the second quarter and that the BoE's normalization cycle will fall short of forecasts may keep the GBP/USD exchange rate stable or force the next leg lower in the exchange rate's downward trajectory.

 

Another aspect that may damage the British pound in the near future and other high-beta currencies for that matter is declining sentiment. Stocks have fallen across the board in recent days, increasing market volatility. If volatility levels soar more and equities extend their sell-off, demand for safe haven assets are anticipated to increase, strengthening king U.S. dollar.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

For the GBP/USD, the creation of a descending triangle pattern on the daily chart could portend greater losses according to my technical analysis article published on Wednesday. Since then, the bearish formation has been validated after the pair dropped below support at 1.3000/1.2980, an occurrence that has rekindled selling interest. However, the recent changes have brought the GBP/USD currency pair closer to a critical support level near 1.2830, which is defined by the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the March 2020 low/June 2021 rise. An intraday dip below this level might reinforce the current sell-off and pave the way for a retreat towards 1.2670, the measured goal of this triangle breakout, for traders to keep an eye on in the coming days.

 

Initial resistance for a bounce is at 1.2980/1.300, but if buyers manage to clear this obstacle firmly, we cannot rule out a rise towards 1.3055, followed by 1.3200. The bears appear to be completely in control of the market at the moment, making a bullish situation seem implausible.

 

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