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Real-time News
August 11th - InvestingLive, a US financial website, reported that the Reserve Bank of Australias (RBA) interest rate decision was in line with expectations. The RBA did not express excessive concern about recent inflation trends, but its forward guidance did see some minor adjustments. While not explicitly pointing to further tightening measures, policymakers wanted the market to know that inflation risks are now skewed to the upside, no longer a two-sided risk scenario. Therefore, the wording of this statement was clearer regarding its policy priorities. The RBA also included a timeline, indicating that inflation is unlikely to fall back to its target level by the end of next year. This leaves some room for further rate hikes in the near future if necessary. The unanimous decision itself did not leave much room for traders to maneuver. Essentially, the RBA reiterated that they acknowledge the possibility of raising the cash rate again if necessary, but are not in a hurry to do so. Before the decision was announced, traders priced in a 97% probability of no change at this meeting. Therefore, this is more or less in line with market expectations.On August 11, Iranian President Manuel Pezechzian stated that his recent meeting with Irans Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei lasted seven to eight hours, during which various topics were discussed in depth. Pezechzian also stated that the most important task at present is to prevent internal division, and that all of the enemys plans are aimed at creating division within Iran. Earlier that day, Pezechzian had also said that Mojtaba was in "very good health."On August 11th, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept its key interest rate unchanged, betting that rising unemployment and a weak housing market would be enough to curb economic activity and thus suppress inflation. Market observers will be watching Governor Bullocks afternoon press conference for further guidance. The statement indicated that "the Committee remains focused on ensuring that high inflation does not become entrenched. Where monetary policy is perceived to be somewhat restrictive," the Committee said it will "continue to take the necessary steps to bring inflation sustainably back to its target level, including further raising the cash rate target if upside risks materialize." Australias four major banks all believe the RBA has completed its tightening policy and will pause its actions for a period before shifting to an easing policy. Westpac believes that higher borrowing costs and the end of the property investor tax credit are putting pressure on the housing market, again demonstrating the powerful effect of coordinated fiscal and monetary policy. Furthermore, the RBAs quarterly economic forecasts show that while the unemployment rate is expected to rise slightly from three months ago, the labor market remains slightly tight.Australian Treasurer Chalmers: The Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged amid heightened global uncertainty and ongoing domestic pressure is a welcome one.On August 11th, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept interest rates unchanged for the second consecutive meeting, despite inflation remaining well above target. This outcome was in line with widespread expectations from economists and the money market. While renewed escalation of the Middle East conflict drove oil prices higher again, lower-than-expected inflation data released in late July dampened market expectations for an August rate hike, giving the committee more breathing room to monitor developments in the Strait of Hormuz. The RBAs economic forecasts indicate that it still expects inflation to remain above 2.5% until early 2028. Another consideration for the RBA was the rapidly deteriorating housing market, which could drag down household consumption and further weaken economic momentum. After three rate hikes in the first half of the year, house prices had begun to fall, but the downward trend accelerated since the federal budget tightened tax breaks for property investors. In its monetary policy statement, the RBA noted that a larger-than-expected drop in house prices could further drag down economic growth.
