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On January 12th, Citigroup pointed out that Indonesias fiscal deficit this year may far exceed the statutory limit, as the government increases spending on the nationwide free meal program and reconstruction projects in flood-stricken provinces of Sumatra. In a report on Monday, Citigroup economist Helmi Arman revised his 2026 budget deficit as a percentage of GDP upward to 3.5% from the initial 2.7%. Citigroups base case assumption is that the government will amend the National Fiscal Law by the second half of this year to relax the long-standing 3% fiscal deficit cap. Arman stated that if the authorities choose to significantly cut spending to maintain fiscal discipline, they may avoid exceeding the limit. He predicts that by 2029, Indonesias debt-to-GDP ratio will rise from approximately 39% in 2025 to 42%.January 12th - In 2025, the judicial auction market showed a year-on-year decline in the number of listings, transactions, transaction value, and average price. A total of 719,000 units were listed for auction (down 6.6% year-on-year), with 169,000 units sold (down 4.4% year-on-year), for a total transaction value of 253.62 billion yuan (down 23.6% year-on-year), and an average discount rate of 74.1%. Residential properties were the core property type (accounting for 51.9% of transaction value), with second-round auctions accounting for the highest proportion of transactions (46.9%). Regionally, high-priced properties were concentrated in first-tier and core second-tier cities, with Shenzhen, Shanghai, and Beijing forming the first tier. Meanwhile, regional differentiation intensified, with significant differences in performance among key cities. The transaction structure optimized, with second-round auctions becoming the core transaction channel, and bidders preferring to make purchases at more attractive prices. The judicial auction market exhibited an independent cyclical trend, with monthly transaction volume and value significantly affected by the courts enforcement pace, showing marked fluctuations.On January 12th, it was reported that four new coastal carbon dioxide lidar systems were recently deployed to surrounding islands and nearshore areas in Shenzhen, including Xichong, Yantian, Xiwang Park, and Dachang Island. According to the Shenzhen Municipal Bureau of Ocean Development, Shenzhen is accelerating the construction of a comprehensive intelligent marine observation network. In addition to the latest 24-hour marine carbon monitoring system, the Shenzhen Marine Development Promotion Center, relying on the marine disaster prevention and control system project, recently deployed 27 high-precision marine observation buoys. The project is large-scale, involves heavy construction tasks, and has high technical standards, providing long-term support for improving the precision and intelligence of Shenzhens marine observation and forecasting operations.On January 12, at the 30th (2026) China Capital Market Forum, experts believed that to implement a more proactive fiscal policy, government debt management should be a key focus of fiscal work in 2026, and that it is necessary to adhere to the close integration of "investing in things" and "investing in people" to promote the stabilization of investment.On January 12th, Baisheng Intelligent announced that it recently signed a "Strategic Cooperation Agreement on Parking Lots" with Baolong Group, with a planned total cooperation amount of 200 million yuan. Baolong Group and its affiliated companies own commercial parking lot operation rights/ownership nationwide. To effectively manage parking spaces and improve parking service and management levels, they need to cooperate with professional operating companies to operate parking lots. Baisheng Intelligent and its affiliated companies are integrated parking solution operators specializing in parking and new energy vehicle charging operation management, and can undertake the systematic operation of commercial parking lots.

Before the US PMI is released, the gold price is expected to rise beyond $1,740 per ounce

Daniel Rogers

Aug 23, 2022 14:48

 截屏2022-08-22 下午5.31.01_1024x576.png

 

On the back of conflicting forecasts for US Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data, the gold price (XAU/USD) is trying to break above $1,740.00. A new monthly low of $1,727.85 was recorded for the precious metal on Monday, but it has since rallied strongly. Given the lack of impetus in the upward trend, the gold price is likely to stay volatile. However, a pullback may be less profitable.

 

The consensus for the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI is 51.5, which is down from the prior reading of 52.2. When compared to its previous reading of 47.3, the Services PMI has room to grow.

 

The yellow metal has been supported by the disappointing early estimates of US Durable Goods Orders. From a previous release of 2%, the market expects the economic figures to sharply decrease to 0.5%. It's important to note that the most recent reading showed no change in underlying pricing pressures, which stood at 5.9%. So, we expect to see little change, if any, in the Durable Goods Orders numbers. Unfortunately, a precipitous drop in economic statistics portends a precipitous drop in demand.

 

The other thing that will be in the spotlight is Federal Reserve (Fed) chair Jerome Powell's remarks from the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. US economic conditions and Fed Powell's direction on inflationary pressures and interest rates will be determined by him.

 

Gold prices on an hourly scale are looking to continue their recovery after breaking above the $1,729.44 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (set from the low of $1,680.91 on July 21 to the high of $1,807.93 on August 10). Gold has been testing the resistance of the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around $1,738.00; a sustained move above this level would signal a change in trend toward the bullish side.

 

Furthermore, the Relative Strength Index (14), which had been negative in the 20.00-40.00 range, has moved into the bullish 40.00-60.00 zone, indicating that gold prices are currently not bearish.

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