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On April 27th, Allianz Chief Economic Advisor Mohamed A. El-Erian published an article stating that the price shock triggered by the Middle East wars has pushed market expectations towards an environment where interest rates remain at higher levels for an extended period, affecting almost all systemically important central banks, with the sole exception being the Bank of Japan, although the differences have recently narrowed, its policy framework remains self-contained. He pointed out that the current situation is not merely a simple price shock, but also accompanied by a negative demand shock from the "second-round effect," and in addition to these direct economic impacts, there is a potential risk of contagion to financial instability. He added, "All of this underscores the uncertainty of the outlook: central banks will face a series of difficult trade-offs, and I think these decisions likely (or should) boil down to a sobering question: Of all the mistakes we can make, which is the least irreversible? For central banks with a single mandate, such as the Bank of England and the European Central Bank, this question is relatively easier to answer; but for the Federal Reserve, which has a dual mandate, the situation is much more complex."According to Irans Tasnim News Agency, an Iranian parliamentary committee has passed a proposal to establish a crisis management ministry.On April 27th, the National Energy Administration held its quarterly press conference. According to the press conference, 24 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) have issued or formulated supporting policies for direct green power connections, and 99 direct green power connection projects nationwide have been approved, corresponding to a total installed capacity of 34.05 million kilowatts of new energy. Recently, based on the single-user direct green power connection policy, a multi-user direct green power connection policy has been formulated, allowing new energy sources to directly supply green electricity to multiple users through dedicated lines. This will promote the accelerated clean energy substitution in industrial parks and zero-carbon parks, and facilitate the wider consumption of new energy. The relevant policies will be released soon.On April 27, Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad al-Kassym-Jomart Ghalibaf posted on social media on the 26th that the United States has exaggerated its bargaining chips in the energy game. Ghalibaf stated that the US has used numerous tactics, and its related strategies are in a predicament. The summer travel peak will exacerbate the pressure on the US, while Iran still holds unused "key trump cards."On April 27, the State Administration for Market Regulation selected seven provinces and municipalities—Beijing, Hebei, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Henan, Sichuan, and Guangdong—to conduct a pilot program allowing registration authorities to apply to the Peoples Courts for compulsory liquidation. The pilot programs main tasks include three aspects: First, establishing a working mechanism. Market regulation departments in the pilot areas will proactively connect with the Peoples Courts, conduct in-depth research, and determine the timetable, roadmap, and safeguard measures for the pilot program in their respective regions. Second, improving the standardization of the liquidation system. This involves establishing a corporate screening mechanism to clarify the scope of application, streamlining the various stages and material requirements for administrative and judicial coordination, supporting the liquidation team in fulfilling its duties, and encouraging the establishment of dedicated windows for efficient handling of matters such as file inquiries and deregistration. Third, strengthening business data sharing. This involves promoting the establishment of data interfaces with the Peoples Courts to achieve information sharing, and improving the functions of the "one-stop" online service platform for deregistration, providing "fully online" services for compulsory liquidation and deregistration of bankrupt enterprises.

Before the Fed and BoJ adopt interest rate policy, the USD/JPY exchange rate is normal

Daniel Rogers

Sep 21, 2022 14:39

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Attempts to push the USD/JPY rate above the 144.00 psychological barrier have met with opposition. The goal of the effort was to break over the long-term trading range of 142.55 to 143.80 to the upside. The duo has retreated into the woods after its breakout attempt failed, and it is expected to do poorly going forward.

 

The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision is the likely event for Wednesday (Fed). The Federal Reserve is widely expected to undertake a third consecutive rate hike of 75 basis points (bps). The retail sector is doing well, and the labor market is tighter than anyone expected, so the Federal Reserve still has a lot of room to raise interest rates. Therefore, bets on a 1% rate hike are rising and could pay well.

 

Inflation, interest rate peak, and economic growth projections will also be tracked. All possible actions by the Fed have been priced out of the market. In the wake of the Fed's meeting, investors will get ready to take bolder steps.

 

The chance of a policy adjustment from the Bank of Japan has increased as the nation's Consumer Price Index (CPI) has improved (BOJ). Statistics Bureau of Japan published a national CPI of 3%, which is above both expectations and the prior release of 2.6%. The core CPI, which does not include food or energy prices, has also gone up, to 1.6% from 1.2%, but is still less than the predicted 1.7%.