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October 14th, Bank of Americas September credit investor survey showed that credit investors concerns about geopolitical risks have reached the highest level in the past 10 years. For the third consecutive survey, geopolitics remains the (most) worrying issue. In September, 32% of credit investors listed geopolitics as their biggest concern, up from 24% in August. A global recession was the second biggest concern, with 16% of investors listing it as the second biggest concern, up from 11% in August. Another 16% of investors listed central bank policy mistakes as their biggest concern, down from 20% in August, the survey showed.RBC: Lowered Boeings (BA.N) price target from $220 to $200.Futures News on October 14, according to the Anhui Monitoring Station of the National Cotton Market Monitoring System, in the face of the "roller coaster" market of cotton futures after the National Day holiday, the cotton ginning mills in the main cotton-producing areas of Anhui Province responded differently, with great differences. 1. After the holiday, the domestic cotton futures market rose sharply and then fell back. The price of the main contract fell from the highest 14,755 yuan/ton to the lowest 14,045 yuan/ton, a drop of 4.82%. Faced with such a large price fluctuation, the response measures of various cotton ginning mills are very different. 2. The first situation is that the cotton ginning mills that have not yet started to purchase will continue to wait and see, or will wait for the right price time point to start weighing; the second situation is that a few cotton ginning mills that have already started to purchase choose to stop receiving to avoid risks. The next step is to see the trend of cotton market and then decide whether to purchase seed cotton; the third situation is that some cotton ginning mills that have started purchasing have increased the purchase price of seed cotton based on the increase in the price of outflow seed cotton in order to grab seed cotton resources. The purchase price has increased by 0.05-0.10 yuan/jin compared with the initial purchase price after the festival, and the highest purchase price of seed cotton has reached 3.45 yuan/jin.On October 14, Goldman Sachs strategists said that struggling British government bonds are expected to rebound after the first budget of the British Labour government is released at the end of this month. British gilts have fallen 3.4% in the past month, exceeding the 0.8% drop in European bonds and the 2.1% drop in US bonds due to market concerns that the government will increase bond supply and change the rules that determine the scale of borrowing. But this will change once British Chancellor of the Exchequer Reeves announces the 2024 Autumn Budget. Goldman Sachs strategists expect the new budget plan to be "quite friendly to gilts." Strategists including George Cole recommend betting on 2-year and 30-year British gilts, saying that the prospect of further interest rate cuts by the Bank of England will further boost the market. Although Goldman Sachs strategists are optimistic about the 2-year British gilts, which are most sensitive to changes in monetary policy, citing the Bank of Englands "dovish turn", they recommend avoiding 10-year British gilts because they may be affected by further government debt.Market news: Brazils state-owned oil company PETROBRAS will lower its investment forecast for 2025.

Bitcoin Forecast – Bearish Analog Supports $9500 Price Target

Skylar Shaw

Oct 19, 2022 15:59

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Will Bitcoin Capitulate? is the headline of a recent update. Bitcoin patterns that resemble one another, according to Benjamin Cowen, may indicate a 50% decline from present levels.


I explore remarkable connections that support this theory with a probable bitcoin objective of $9500 by mid-December by delving further into his investigation.


Cycles of Bitcoin

In case you didn't know, the bitcoin cycle reaches its pinnacle every four years. Prices often peak in the fourth quarter, just before a mid-term election (2013, 2017, 2021, 2025, 2029, etc.).


Why do prices surge a year ahead of the midterm elections? I believe the reason is that a split government results when one party loses control of the House or the Senate. A lack of liquidity results in a risk-off climate.

Future Price of Bitcoin

The benchmarks paralleling the 2018 breakdown pattern up to this point are listed below. Expect a post-election collapse to begin in November if the analog holds true.


Following the apex of the 4-year cycle, the price of bitcoin plunges over 70% over a rigorous 5- to 6-month period.


Prices reach their mid-year lows in June, on average, and then consolidate in a triangular shape.


Prices drop in October when political candidates square off; yet, prices discreetly trend upward as elections approach.


In November, a severe post-election collapse starts and lasts for nearly a month.


Note: In 2018, the post-election decrease was around 47%. A $9500 bitcoin aim is implied by a similar result in 2022.

What Maybe Wrong?

Bitcoin would need to end the triangular pattern and close above the August $25,212 pivot in order to invalidate the aforementioned analog. I would put a low likelihood on a positive conclusion and give a 70% chance on new lows.


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