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The main contract of the Container Shipping Index (European line) fell 50.4 points during the day and is now at 1067.2 points, a drop of 4.51%.On September 19th, local time, US President Trump, while meeting with British Prime Minister Starmer at Chequers, the British Prime Ministers country residence, stated that the US is attempting to reclaim Bagram Air Base in Afghanistan. At a press conference, Trump criticized the previous US administrations decision and actions regarding the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan. He said, "We are working hard to get it back."On September 19th, market analyst Haruya Ida reported that Japans core CPI rose 2.7% year-on-year in August, a significant decline from July but still well above the Bank of Japans 2% target. Overall CPI also reached 2.7% in August, with the core CPI excluding fresh food and energy remaining at a high 3.3%. Fluctuations in fresh food and energy prices are driving inflation, and the Bank of Japan should be far from complacent about inflation. The latest inflation data is not expected to impact todays Bank of Japan decision, with interest rates likely to remain unchanged. However, the central bank will remain vigilant, with a possible rate hike in October or December. Todays focus will be on the Bank of Japans policy announcement and a press conference by Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda.Goldman Sachs: The Bank of England is expected to announce the next interest rate cut in February, followed by quarterly rate cuts, reaching a terminal rate of 3% by the end of 2026.Futures data from September 19th showed aluminum prices recently surging and then retreating, reaching a peak of 21,020 yuan/ton, a new high for the year. As of September 18th, the spot price of A00 aluminum was 20,780 yuan/ton, down 0.53% month-over-month and up 5.06% year-over-year. Key influencing factors: 1. Macroeconomic factors: The Federal Reserve lowered the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points in September to 4.00%-4.25%. The dot plot suggests three rate cuts this year, fulfilling market expectations. Coupled with the dollar indexs post-dip recovery, aluminum prices surged and then retreated. 2. Fundamentals: Supply is performing well, with capacity utilization approaching 96%. Concentrated arrivals in some consumer areas have hindered inventory destocking. On the demand side, demand in the downstream sheet, strip, and foil sectors has recovered well, with aluminum bar and profile consumption also improving. Processing plant operating rates have increased to varying degrees, leading to a steady overall improvement in demand and strengthening support for prices. Looking at the future market, it is expected that the demand for stocking up before the holiday next week will drive aluminum prices to fluctuate and strengthen, with the reference range being 20,600-21,200 yuan/ton.

Asian Equities Decline As traders Assess China's Reopening Strategy

Mila Graham

Dec 28, 2022 16:05

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On Wednesday, Asian stocks were muted but the dollar maintained its strength as investors sought guidance in the wake of China's latest steps toward reopening its COVID-devastated economy.


The MSCI index of Asia-Pacific shares outside of Japan fell 0.13%, breaking a two-day winning streak and seemed destined to finish the year's final month in the red.


Australia's S&P/ASX 200 index fell 0.43% while Japan's Nikkei began 0.5% down.


The Hong Kong stock market began 1% higher while China's stock market was expected to open slightly down following China's declaration on Monday that it will no longer need incoming travelers to undergo quarantine beginning on January 8.


Expectations of a swift economic rebound have grown due to an infection peak that came sooner than expected.


Overnight, Wall Street declined as the U.S. Treasury yields put pressure on growth stocks that are sensitive to interest rates.


Investors have been attempting to predict how high the Federal Reserve will need to hike rates as it continues to tighten monetary policy in an effort to fight inflation without tipping the economy into a recession.


At 3.849%, the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds was down 0.9 basis points from the previous session's five-week high of 3.862%.


The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond decreased by 2.3 basis points to 3.920%, while the yield on the two-year U.S. Treasury bond decreased. These two yields often move in tandem with forecasts for interest rates.


A summary of thoughts from the Bank of Japan's December meeting, which was released on Wednesday, revealed that policymakers there considered the growing likelihood that increased wages will ultimately eliminate the possibility of a return to deflation.


The BOJ kept its ultra-easy policy at its meeting on December 19–20, but surprised the markets by changing its bond yield control strategy, allowing long-term interest rates to increase even further.


Investor attention will likely shift to who will run the BOJ after Governor Haruhiko Kuroda steps down in April, despite markets' growing hopes that the Japanese central bank will modify its stance.