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The French presidential palace stated that President Macrons attendance at the Franco-Italian summit will help deepen cooperation between the two countries in areas such as energy and defense.Britains new defense secretary: Investment plans are still being finalized.On June 12th, Morgan Stanley economist Bruna Skarica noted in a report that UK monthly GDP appears to be benefiting again from strong performance in the white-collar services sector, particularly the information and communications technology (ICT) industry. She pointed out that output in this sector is currently up 6.7% year-on-year, and has grown by 45.4% since the fourth quarter of 2019, while the overall economy has only grown by 6% during the same period. "It seems far from a coincidence that the sector most vulnerable to the rapid spread of artificial intelligence is simultaneously driving GDP growth and productivity gains," Skarica added. Given that the Bank of England stated last year that structural productivity growth in the UK was negative, the bank should comment further on this this year.On June 12th, HSBC analysts noted in a report that the US dollar is currently trading below levels implied by market expectations of US interest rates. They stated that the dollars reaction has been limited as recent market expectations have shifted from anticipated rate cuts to possible rate hikes. They believe this may reflect the loose financial environment in the US and market expectations for a resolution to the Middle East conflict. They added that the dollar needs clear stimulus from monetary policy. If the Federal Reserve fails to support rate hike expectations at next weeks meeting, the dollar "could be in trouble."On June 12th, analysts at Nomura Securities stated in a report that the Bank of England is likely to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in July to avoid the risk of a second wave of inflation. However, with inflation risks diminishing, they believe the Bank of England is likely to resume rate cuts in 2027. LSEG data shows that investors expect a 34% probability of a rate hike by the Bank of England in July.

Asia Stocks Join Wall Street's Rebound, As The Yen Continues to Rise

Skylar Williams

Dec 22, 2022 11:42

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Asian markets rose on Thursday after a positive reading on U.S. consumers delighted Wall Street investors, while the yen added to its big recent gains as Japanese government yields moved into a new higher zone.


Unexpectedly, consumer confidence in the United States reached an eight-month high in December as the labor market remained robust. The anticipated rate of inflation dropped to 6.7%, the lowest level since September 2021, as a result of falling gas prices.


This contributed to a rise on Wall Street, with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures each up 0.3% on Thursday.


Futures on the EURO STOXX 50 and FTSE climbed 0.1% and 0.3%, respectively, despite the typical winter slump in volume.


MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific equities excluding Japan increased by 1.1%, while Chinese blue chips increased by 0.75 percent.


The Nikkei gained 0.2% as the Japanese government upgraded its growth prediction for the next fiscal year in anticipation of higher company spending and hefty wage increases.


Investors continue to ponder the repercussions of the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) shocking decision to allow JGB rates to climb this week, prompting many to believe that a policy tightening is imminent.


Yields on 10-year government bonds have risen 23 basis points this week to 0.480%, the highest level since July 2015 and just a hair's breadth away from the BOJ's new ceiling of 0.5%.


The increase in rates and the strengthening of the yen will reduce the value of Japanese investors' holdings, according to analysts at Capital Economics.


"Insurance companies would suffer the most from dropping bond prices, while pension funds will suffer the most from a rising currency rate. We doubt, however, that decreased investment returns pose systemic dangers."


Next year, capital also anticipates the dollar to decline toward 125 yen. At 131.93 yen, the dollar was already in the red for the week, having lost 3.5% so far; but, it had found some support around 130.40 yen. 


At 140.11, the euro had likewise lost 3.6% against the yen for the week. At $1.0622, the euro was slightly stronger against the dollar due to the yen's activity.


After British public borrowing reached a record in November and nationwide strikes dimmed the UK's economic outlook, the value of the pound declined. Overnight, the pound fell to a three-week low and was pegged at $1.2082.


The dollar's decline has been beneficial to gold, which is up 1.4% so far this week to $1,818 per ounce. 


Oil prices increased as data revealed a larger-than-anticipated decline in U.S. crude inventories, but a big snowstorm is expected to blanket a large portion of the country and reduce travel-related fuel consumption


Brent crude increased 34 cents to $82.54 per barrel, while U.S. crude petroleum advanced 44 cents to $78.73 per barrel.